Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 334 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,661
  • Dec 17, 2015 11:57am Dec 17, 2015 11:57am
Quoting Alehandro
{quote} How much and where? Can you PM me about this broker, thanks a lot Alfonso!
There are MANY brokers out there, Google it and you will see a bunch of them offering CFD trading!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,662
  • Dec 17, 2015 12:00pm Dec 17, 2015 12:00pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} It's difficult to answer that question in a few sentences John. Inheritance is complex and tricky, if I start talking about it then you will probably get lost and I'll confuse others that have not yet grasped the basic supply and demand imbalances. Cheers, Alfonso
OK. But do you agree that HTF inherited zone ussually wins against LTF zone?
  • #6,663
  • Dec 17, 2015 12:05pm Dec 17, 2015 12:05pm
And could you please post some of your last trades? It helps a lot to see if I do my analyses in the same direction as you do, my friend?
  • #6,664
  • Dec 17, 2015 12:42pm Dec 17, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting John.
{quote} OK. But do you agree that HTF inherited zone ussually wins against LTF zone?
Indeed, it has more odds. A bigger TF usually wins over a lower TF. The whole top down analysis needs to be done to make a decision though.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,665
  • Dec 17, 2015 12:43pm Dec 17, 2015 12:43pm
Quoting John.
And could you please post some of your last trades? It helps a lot to see if I do my analyses in the same direction as you do, my friend?
Let's do it differently... I can tell you which are the instruments I'm long or short and you can tell me where I took those maybe...

I'm short on AUDSGD, EURUSD, GBPNZD, GOLD, SILVER and a couple more. Long on USD/HUF, USD/SGD, USD/NOK... and a few others...

My question is, not only for you. Where do you think I could have gone long or short? That will be better than me posting some of my trades.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,666
  • Edited 1:45pm Dec 17, 2015 1:01pm | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Let's do it differently... I can tell you which are the instruments I'm long or short and you can tell me where I took those maybe... I'm short on AUDSGD, EURUSD, GBPNZD, GOLD, SILVER and a couple more. Long on USD/HUF, USD/SGD, USD/NOK... and a few others... My question is, not only for you. Where do you think I could have gone long or short? That will be better than me posting some of my trades. Cheers, Alfonso
That will be great!
I'm with you
My first answer is GBPNZD. I'm absolutely sure you are short from that CP supply which I wanted to trade (but nested H4) but canceled my order because of NZ interest rate decision.
WK/D1 are down. But I'm confused about MN which is up no doubt. Counter-trend trade?
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USDNOK... very good long from nested D1 demand within WK fresh demand... Location and momentum. Highest odds!
MN/Wk are up.
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USDSGD... I'm not sure. But if I'm right it was very aggressive long?
MN up, but WK - bullish conso and Wk supply in control?
Daily was also bullish conso at that moment and in the middle of the curve... Hope you will explain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EURUSD... I wanted to sell there also but I was afraid of that 1 single candle in the base of WK supply. I decided that WK supply is not good for set and forget.
MN is bearish conso, WK is down.
Location and momentum short. D1 supply was good and valid.
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AUDSGD... Not sure...
MN down, WK bearish conso. Daily supple nested within WK supply at the top.
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  • #6,667
  • Edited 1:45pm Dec 17, 2015 1:09pm | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting John.
{quote} That will be great! I'm with you My first answer is GBPNZD. I'm absolutely sure you are short from that CP supply which I wanted to trade (but nested H4) but canceled my order because of NZ interest rate decision. WK/D1 are down. But I'm confused about MN which is up no doubt. Counter-trend trade? {image}
You cancelled the order on GBPNZD because of NZD interest rate, so? You are not short on GBPNZD's supply zone because of NZD interest rate? News are usually priced in the charts way before it has happened.

Who cares about interest rates and news. We're supply and demand traders. Yesterday was one of the most important news of the year for the US, interest rates were raised. Did I cancel my trade? No I didn't, I am short on the euro. All tests I've performed in the past with Forex Tester to come up with the rules set DID NOT take into account the news, it would be impossible to track the news while testing anyway... Why would I take news into account when live trading? Tell me some reasonable that can convince me to do the opposite John!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,668
  • Dec 17, 2015 1:57pm Dec 17, 2015 1:57pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} You cancelled the order on GBPNZD because of NZD interest rate, so? You are not short on GBPNZD's supply zone because of NZD interest rate? News are usually priced in the charts way before it has happened. Who cares about interest rates and news. We're supply and demand traders. Yesterday was one of the most important news of the year for the US, interest rates were raised. Did I cancel my trade? No I didn't, I am short on the euro. All tests I've performed in the past with Forex Tester to come up with the rules set DID NOT take into account...
Yes, now I know that I was wrong. But now I have a rule for that and I hope that it was a good lesson for myself never to repeat such mistakes again.
Thanks for a great opportunity to find trades you are in. I do not trade GOLD/SILVER and do not have quotes for USDHUF, but I will analyse them later.
Hope you will comment my answer (I have added all pairs to my first answer) to your trades in brief because some of them are not very clear for me.
  • #6,669
  • Dec 18, 2015 12:14am Dec 18, 2015 12:14am
Quoting John.
{quote} Yes, now I know that I was wrong. But now I have a rule for that and I hope that it was a good lesson for myself never to repeat such mistakes again. Thanks for a great opportunity to find trades you are in. I do not trade GOLD/SILVER and do not have quotes for USDHUF, but I will analyse them later. Hope you will comment my answer (I have added all pairs to my first answer) to your trades in brief because some of them are not very clear for me.
John, on euro I waited for confirmation for shorts, took it on H4. AUD/SGD at the top level you drew then H4 supply zone again. USD/SGD D1 demand zone, silver D1 supply zone, Gold H4 supply zone. Lots of opportunities.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,670
  • Dec 18, 2015 1:57am Dec 18, 2015 1:57am
Hi Alfonso,

I've got a question regarding the NZDJPY, see charts below:




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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,671
  • Dec 18, 2015 11:07am Dec 18, 2015 11:07am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} John, on euro I waited for confirmation for shorts, took it on H4. AUD/SGD at the top level you drew then H4 supply zone again. USD/SGD D1 demand zone, silver D1 supply zone, Gold H4 supply zone. Lots of opportunities. Cheers, Alfonso
Thank you very much, Alfonso. If you don't mind I would like to continue analyzing trades.

EURUSD
As I can see there was a good H4 confirmation on EURUSD. I saw that supply but also did not like it because of "like a doji" candle in the base. But I was not very attentive, as I can see now the whole H4 supply base consisted of not only that weak candle but it was surrounded by other candles. It was valid short without me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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AUDSGD - ???
I'm sorry but I cannot see any confirmation H4 supply. The only supply I can see has weak departure and it was not hit by the price at all.
Can you show your chart please?
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GBPNZD - ???
Why did you sell if MN is up?

USDSGD - ???
If I'm right with D1 demand you traded, can you say a couple of words why?
Quote
MN up, but WK - bullish conso and Wk supply in control?
Daily was also bullish conso at that moment and in the middle of the curve...

USDHUF - ???
Was it a set and forget long? Have I founded it correctly?
MN: bullish conso
WK: up
D1: location and momentum long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDHUFDaily.png Size: 52 KB


If you have some time please write some comments. Thanks!
  • #6,672
  • Edited 1:38am Dec 19, 2015 12:37am | Edited 1:38am
Good morning everybody. Can you help me and explain something to me.

We do not trade CP-s against entry TF trend. That is the rule. What about peaks/valleys? Does that mean that we can trade valid peak in this situation or this peak can be traded against the entry TF trend if it is within HTF SZ only? Thank you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,673
  • Dec 20, 2015 10:43pm Dec 20, 2015 10:43pm
Quoting conom589
Good morning everybody. Can you help me and explain something to me. We do not trade CP-s against entry TF trend. That is the rule. What about peaks/valleys? Does that mean that we can trade valid peak in this situation or this peak can be traded against the entry TF trend if it is within HTF SZ only? Thank you {image}
If we are in an uptrend we can't trade opposing continuation patterns or peaks unless we have confirmation. Trading counter-trend implies much more risk. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,674
  • Dec 20, 2015 10:46pm Dec 20, 2015 10:46pm
Quoting John.
{quote} Thank you very much, Alfonso. If you don't mind I would like to continue analyzing trades. EURUSD As I can see there was a good H4 confirmation on EURUSD. I saw that supply but also did not like it because of "like a doji" candle in the base. But I was not very attentive, as I can see now the whole H4 supply base consisted of not only that weak candle but it was surrounded by other candles. It was valid short without me {image} AUDSGD - ??? I'm sorry but I cannot see any confirmation H4 supply. The only supply I can see has weak departure...
John, GBP/NZD had weekly out of alignment, counter-trend trade down to monthly demand zone. AUD/SGD there is a SZ up there that I took but it was on the Daily chart, not H4 (you uploaded H4 chart). USD/SGD took a confirmation trade for long. USD/HUF correct.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,675
  • Dec 20, 2015 11:37pm Dec 20, 2015 11:37pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} John, GBP/NZD had weekly out of alignment, counter-trend trade down to monthly demand zone. AUD/SGD there is a SZ up there that I took but it was on the Daily chart, not H4 (you uploaded H4 chart). USD/SGD took a confirmation trade for long. USD/HUF correct. Cheers, Alfonso
Thank you, Alfonso! Now almost everything is clear. This is very useful exercise, thank you that you responded to my wish.
My last question about it is, if it's not very difficult for you, could you show the confirmation zone for USDSGD?
  • #6,676
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:07pm Dec 21, 2015 10:07pm
Quoting John.
{quote} Thank you, Alfonso! Now almost everything is clear. This is very useful exercise, thank you that you responded to my wish. My last question about it is, if it's not very difficult for you, could you show the confirmation zone for USDSGD?
John, this is the H4 demand zone on USD/SGD used as confirmation. Hope that helps.

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,677
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:56pm Dec 21, 2015 10:56pm
Brent is in a clear downtrend creating brand new Daily and Weekly supply zones. We must respect trendline rules and multiple CPs rules. Weekly supply zone created at 43.25.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,678
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:57pm Dec 21, 2015 10:57pm
USD/CAD has kept on rallying creating potential Daily demand zones on the way up. Now within tested weekly + monthly supply zones. Aggressive longs are possible with smaller lot size since we have a larger supply imbalance in control but we have bigger picture uptrend and tested opposing supply zones.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,679
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:57pm Dec 21, 2015 10:57pm
GBP/NZD has been dropping ever since it tested brand new Weekly supply zone at 2.3534. New Daily supply zones have been created on the way down. H4 entries were available, now new Daily supply zones being created. Getting closer to Weekly demand zone

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,680
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:57pm Dec 21, 2015 10:57pm
GBP/JPY breaking lower, brand new Daily supply zone created after taking out tested Daily Demand taken out. Short bias.

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