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The One: Price Action and Reaction

  • #641
  • Dec 11, 2015 1:17pm Dec 11, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting Winston Reed
The up-sloping fork is still in play but no doubt price dipped significantly below the lower median line. It found support/buyers and after news yesterday buyers came in strongly. Yet it failed to make a new high and today price did not surpass yesterday's high. The down-sloping fork is shown as it is showing signs of validity. Price tested the upper median line and looks like it will close significantly lower (separation). If it does a sell of a retest is not out of the question. But....tomorrow is Friday and I don't trust Friday's for trading....
Yesterdays close ended up being a bit weak so I would have passed on this one anyway. But, price did retest the slider and then went to the first area of support.

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  • #642
  • Dec 11, 2015 1:23pm Dec 11, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting Winston Reed
I like the setups on EURUSD and USDCAD. However I'll probably sit out as tomorrow is Friday. Tempting buy {image} Tempting sell {image}
Price zoomed the slider then retested with a strong close near the slider. It did move up but nothing impressive.
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Price zoomed both sliders closing strongly above. In hindsight a buy was possible although I would have liked a bit more retracement with today's bar.
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That's Fridays PA for ya. I don't trust it.
  • #643
  • Dec 11, 2015 1:57pm Dec 11, 2015 1:57pm
Winston and Eagle, i am still confused with the forking I tried to fork monthly charts of different currencies but i am still unable to make it:/ However I came up with something of my own and would like your input and expertise of how would you go on trading the chart starting from vertical line. I would like your input to be as using info at the moment and past to make your trades according to your experience and knowledge from "forking" . ​

The light blue lines are my targets, meaning i will take my profit there. and each of them are about 300 pips.
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  • #644
  • Dec 11, 2015 2:01pm Dec 11, 2015 2:01pm
Quoting duy90
Winston and Eagle, i am still confused with the forking I tried to fork monthly charts of different currencies but i am still unable to make it:/ However I came up with something of my own and would like your input and expertise of how would you go on trading the chart starting from vertical line. The light blue lines are my targets, meaning i will take my profit there. and each of them are about 300 pips. {image}
Hello duy90, I'm not quite sure what you are asking. Do you want forks drawn from the blue vertical line and then how the forks might have been traded or do you want a commentary on how one might have traded just purely based on the chart you provided?
  • #645
  • Edited 2:15pm Dec 11, 2015 2:13pm | Edited 2:15pm
Hello Winston thx for fast reply

I want to know how would you have used past information to execute trades starting from vertical line in "real time"

You can see that its EURUSD 1H on date 31.12.2014, I am sure you can look at past data from your broker if needed.
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  • #646
  • Dec 11, 2015 2:49pm Dec 11, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting duy90
Hello Winston thx for fast reply I want to know how would you have used past information to execute trades starting from vertical line in "real time" You can see that its EURUSD 1H on date 31.12.2014, I am sure you can look at past data from your broker if needed. {image}
I'm still unsure of exactly what your request is. However I put up a H1 chart with a modified Schiff in the area you are speaking of. The red down arrows signify possible sells based on the fork and a slider that showed good frequency.

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Are you suggesting to post every possible H1 fork from the point you designated to now? If so, I'm afraid I wouldn't have the time nor the inclination.
The thread to this point has offered a great deal of material that should be able to get you on your way. Please go to the beginning and study a bit. Also www.medianline.com and www.marketgeometry.com have the most very basic tutorials on drawing forks. Finally I suggest practice, practice and more practice drawing forks.
Try drawing some forks and posting them here for review. I'm happy to comment and make suggestions. Take care.
  • #647
  • Dec 12, 2015 1:25am Dec 12, 2015 1:25am
Quoting juriFX
Gold 60m {image}
Hi Juri - here's some hindsight (I find it easier ;-)) analysis of the gold chart you posted. I don't watch gold but something in the chart reminded me of this blog article on the Market Geometry site. Tim morge often talks about a swing failures and the moves they spawn and that's what this looked like to me. I haven't done the work to see if, based on this, I can find a repeatable pattern that I can see and trade in real time but its on the list of things to do.
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  • #648
  • Dec 12, 2015 1:37am Dec 12, 2015 1:37am
Quoting bartlby37
{quote} Hi Juri - here's some hindsight (I find it easier ;-)) analysis of the gold chart you posted. I don't watch gold but something in the chart reminded me of this blog article on the Market Geometry site. Tim morge often talks about a swing failures and the moves they spawn and that's what this looked like to me. I haven't done the work to see if, based on this, I can find a repeatable pattern that I can see and trade in real time but its on the list of things...
Nice. I think you spotted what Tim calls "change in behaviour" (market structure), when a swing gets taken out or a failure (also remember hagopian rule) then a change in behaviour occurred, so we look for new median lines or frequency lines...
Yeah that "wash and rinse" hit my SL that's why I should try to hide the SL behind market structure, it was clearly too tight...
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #649
  • Dec 12, 2015 1:50am Dec 12, 2015 1:50am
Quoting juriFX
{image}
price reached energy point and upper ML, next week price could continue lower (maybe to the ML)
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price repected frequency lines
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #650
  • Dec 12, 2015 3:03am Dec 12, 2015 3:03am
Quoting juriFX
{quote} price reached energy point and upper ML, next week price could continue lower (maybe to the ML) {image} {image} price repected frequency lines
Hi juriFX;

I'm not trying to disrupt what you are doing but sometimes just using D1 Swing Points and projecting them into future works best.

What effects the Market on the way down is still going to be there on the way up. I find if a Zone gets missed then it usually plays a role in the near future.

See ?? on Charts
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  • #651
  • Dec 12, 2015 3:35pm Dec 12, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I'm still unsure of exactly what your request is. However I put up a H1 chart with a modified Schiff in the area you are speaking of. The red down arrows signify possible sells based on the fork and a slider that showed good frequency. {image} Are you suggesting to post every possible H1 fork from the point you designated to now? If so, I'm afraid I wouldn't have the time nor the inclination. The thread to this point has offered a great deal of material that should be able to get you on your way. Please go to the beginning and study a bit....

Thank you for your answer. I will listen to your advice and progress =). Here are few charts i drew the forks on. It may look like a mess, but i tried to progressively move on on chart while drawing forks. Please give me your comments regarding the forks. I would like to able to pinpoint important forks and ignore other not so important forks, in order not to cluster my charts.
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  • #652
  • Dec 12, 2015 4:10pm Dec 12, 2015 4:10pm
Quoting duy90
{quote} Thank you for your answer. I will listen to your advice and progress =). Here are few charts i drew the forks on. It may look like a mess, but i tried to progressively move on on chart while drawing forks. Please give me your comments regarding the forks. I would like to able to pinpoint important forks and ignore other not so important forks, in order not to cluster my charts. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hey duy!. I'm impressed! You're doing great!. The AUDCAD looks good except for one thing. The darker blue fork you have drawn with High,High,Low. Always draw High, Low, High or Low, High, Low. See my chart.
Now show me where the trades might have been.
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  • #653
  • Dec 12, 2015 4:18pm Dec 12, 2015 4:18pm
Quoting duy90
{quote} Thank you for your answer. I will listen to your advice and progress =). Here are few charts i drew the forks on. It may look like a mess, but i tried to progressively move on on chart while drawing forks. Please give me your comments regarding the forks. I would like to able to pinpoint important forks and ignore other not so important forks, in order not to cluster my charts. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
This is the best I can do with my broker on AUDJPY monthly.
The magenta fork you've drawn is the most significant. Can you tell me why? the red fork is HIGH, HIGH, LOW so it is incorrect. Don't worry an easy adjustment for you to make. Also your zero point or A point is right in the middle of an uptrend. Points A,B,C should always be major swings.
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  • #654
  • Dec 12, 2015 4:35pm Dec 12, 2015 4:35pm
This is the best I can do with AUDUSD monthly.

Most of the forks you've drawn don't really encompass price action on this chart. The blue fork with the upper and lower sliders is interesting though. I can't draw it so I'm not sure but I think I would have drawn it differently.
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Perhaps you can drop to weekly/daily so I can be more helpful. You have the idea. It just takes practice.
I like starting with the most recent forks using major highs and lows and then moving back in time to find a fork that describes PA the best.
Some may think this is "curve-fitting" but it really isn't. It's just us trying to find price's best direction and frequency.
Keep up the good work Duy.
  • #655
  • Dec 12, 2015 9:58pm Dec 12, 2015 9:58pm
Quoting juriFX
{quote} good charts! I have some doubts about pivots. These charts should be clear, if not let me know. C pivot is not really a major swing high, but is this still a valid ML? Also the B pivot is not major... {image} B pivot is only a minor low pivot, if at all {image} The same for A pivot. But I've seen this in a webinar of Tim... Sometimes he chooses a minor pivot as his A because of frequency on the mid ML... Is this correct? {image} Also Tim uses what he calls width median lines. These are useful and describe price better when the C pivot is...
You have to use your own judgement when using the different types of Median Lines and when each one works better or not. Width median lines are used when there is a long term range or coil for the most part. Alternate A's are used when the frequency if the fork is better using an Alternate A. B and C pivots are left alone because when you change those you may be curve fitting. Remember: High Low High or Low High Low but always ABC. D I guess you could consider as your target if we were using fibs, so we could call D our target. Many times a measured move of AB=CD will also work out in a fork.

For Chart 1:
Try to use a different A point, rather than moving the B and C. The A could be the high high, the B and C should be the lowest low and next highest high.

For Chart 2:
That to me looks like a better Action Reaction set rather than pitchfork, as the A pivot cuts through the next highs very nicely.

For Chart 3:
There is good action on the tail, but remember we want to find the controlling swing trade off of that. I am not sure if what you are looking at there would be the controlling swing, as price has already lifted out of that area. Is there any way you could have entered a long earlier?

For Chart 4:
That is a regular fork. A width Median Line is often used in a range. You are simply moving your C point to the right to call it a width, but in actuality you should be looking at which point would be correct in drawing a Median Line already.

I hope this helps.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #656
  • Dec 12, 2015 10:06pm Dec 12, 2015 10:06pm
Quoting Hpt
{quote} Hello would be nice if you can make your rules clearer 1. at which point in time is a fork valid for you ? 2. when do you enter a trade - second linetouch for example ? better at median line or action and reaction lines ? 3. exit if touch next line ? made be you can show a trade chart you finished for better understanding thanks a lot green pips
Read the Action Reaction Course on the First Post.

If you have already i can say this:
For Lower Median Line Longs, and Upper Median Line Shorts look for a test and retest with a minimum target of the Center Median Line

For a zoom of the Center Median Line, you would also like to see retest to enter this is called the Zoom Retest.

I will have to put together a few slides on how to enter correctly on the forks, as this is a more in depth discussion.

Look at slide AR4 or page 29

Median lines and MLH: the MLs enable the user to be one of the few who can tell where the prices are headed, and the place they will reach about 80% of the time, and when approximately that place will be reached. Slopes of alternate MLs of comparable length indicate the trend. When both recent MLs slope in the same direction the trend is strong and price change rapid. A reverse ML is formed when 1ML2-3 is exactly reached at P4, and is a reliable CL for applying the AR method. There is a high probability that:
1. Prices will reach the latest ML
2. Prices will either reverse on meeting the ML or gap through it
3. When prices pass through the ML, they will pull back to it
4. When prices reverse before reaching the ML, leaving a “space”, they will move more in the opposite direction than when prices were rising toward the ML.
5. Prices reverse at any ML or extension of a prior ML.
Frequently, after crossing a lower MLH, prices continue to rise along the MLH before the further drop that was signaled by passing through. So here you can use a sliding parallel through the bottom of the range of the most recent day as a sell signal if prices drop through that SH.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #657
  • Dec 12, 2015 10:44pm Dec 12, 2015 10:44pm
Quoting Mhons
{quote} Great charting Eaglestar, thank you for that. Could you please give me your sight for pair USD/JPY 4H, from my view its not clear, we are in tight range about 120 pips. From past we could see that this pair likes to do this ranging before push higher/lower from range. Is it some kind of energy zone that Tim mentioned in his webinars? Thanks for opinions!
I realize this is a bit late, but if you had looked at my other UJ charts you would have seen a potential turn coming.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #658
  • Dec 12, 2015 10:48pm Dec 12, 2015 10:48pm
I am in the process of installing, learning, updating all platforms and a new computer, so please bear with me if I am not posting charts regularly as before. I will be soon.

I know some of you probably rely on this to help in trading decisions, so I just ask that use caution and your own eyes as well.

If metatrader is a Honda Civic, then Ensign Windows+Esignal is an Acura NSX. Much better charting possibilities than Ninjatrader as well in my humble opinion. I was trying to use CQG for a little while, but their drawing tools are mediocre at best.
:nerd:
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #659
  • Dec 12, 2015 10:57pm Dec 12, 2015 10:57pm
This thread has surpassed 100,000 views this week. I am humbled and honored to all of you who have come to learn, and look inside yourselves to become better traders. I hope that I can continue to be a guide in the future coming months.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #660
  • Dec 13, 2015 3:28am Dec 13, 2015 3:28am
  •  Hpt
  • Joined Jun 2015 | Status: everybody trade at one`s own risk | 648 Posts
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} Read the Action Reaction Course on the First Post. If you have already i can say this: For Lower Median Line Longs, and Upper Median Line Shorts look for a test and retest with a minimum target of the Center Median Line For a zoom of the Center Median Line, you would also like to see retest to enter this is called the Zoom Retest. I will have to put together a few slides on how to enter correctly on the forks, as this is a more in depth discussion. Look at slide AR4 or page 29 Median lines and MLH: the MLs enable the user to be one of the...

have read from post one

many thanks for depth info
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