Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

long @17580 sl -20 tp +60

sl hit. -20

i heard that this friday there will be a lot of sp500 contrat expiere day, if this happens we may see a black firday and monday this week so carefull with longs guys.

Thought it might help one or two people who are struggling to get onto the right side of the trades if I posted this chart which contains the basics of the strategy I use. It is a 1 min chart, so if this is too small for you, then you can use this on any time frame. On it are several MAs -

Blue/re - 20ema
pink/light green - 140 zero lag exponential
blue/orange dotted - 100sma
purple/yellow - 200ema
red/purple dotted - 200sma

You can do without the 200sma, but I like to use it.

It is very simple. When the zero lag and the 200ema are above the 20ema, you only trade down, and vise versa. However, when the price is on the turn, you have to be ready. Look at number 2 in yellow. The strong push down has halted for some reason ( maybe a higher time frame is showing you a support level ). The price goes sideways, trying to break lower, but fails. You can see that the zero lag and the 20ema narrow in on each other just above 2. They do just below 1 as well, but with both the 200ema and 100sma just above, it is more than likely that the price will fall away from them.

Number 2 is different, because there is now a lot of room between the price and the 100sma/200ema above, for an upward movement to fill. Here , even though the 200ema is above, you can take the buy trade here, but do not expect it to move higher than the 1m 200ema at this stage. Then, in a situation like this, the price will almost always fall away from a big MA like the 200ema, so you can sell off of this and it will be quite a safe trade. How far will it go? Well, if the 1m momentum has swung to the upside, then you want to put in a fibonacci, you see mine in orange, which is the 76.4%, or, as you see, you can use the zero lag ( in case you've lost where I am, I am between 1 and 2, So, we have our support again here, so can you go long again here? The answer is absolutely yes, because if this is support, then it has to go up, and I'd put my stop loss, below the Bollinger, which here is about 20 pips to be safe ( if you like using a smaller stop than this, then go down to a 20 second chart.)

So now that we are long again, notice how the 100sma has come down much closer to 20ema - this is a good bullish sign. Waht the price will usually do, and you can back test this and you'll see it time and time again, is that it will rise to the 100sma, and then go sideways until it gets beneath the 20ema. Now, as you can see, with both the zero lag and the 100sma beneath the price, the trade is really on if you aren't in it already.

So where do you TP? This si why I have several time frames open all at once on my 6 monitors. The 200ema on the 5 min TF combined with the 76.4% fib level, and this is always the sort of thing I look for. I called this top live today on this thread, and as you can see, it was an accurate level to go for.

Last trade on this chart is number 4. So you've taken profit because you believe it has found resistance, but I would never just trade as soon as it hits it, I will always wait for confirmation. The important thing to remember here is that the resistance has been found on one of the big MAs, this here being the 5m 200ema, and so according to the law of averages, I am expecting it to fall again.

The sideways movement in a tight range either side of the 20ema as we go through 12 noon is to me, from experience, a clear sign that the price is going to fall. Then you have, just like the Buy on number 2, the zero lag and the 20ema narrowing into an apex, and finally, as we enter the apex, you see ( I hope you can see on this chart shot) three great shooting star candles to Sell off, and don't worry about the 200ema beneath here, because the 5m 200ema above will override this 1m 200ema, making it in effect redundant, so you just ignore it.

That's it, I hope it was simple enough. Getting the support and resistance levels are always tricky, especially on a day like today which has been a bit of a yoyo, but this simple moving average strategy should give you something to work on if you have been looking for something basic such as this to help get you onto the right side of price movements.

Hope this helps a few people

Now that I've posted the chart I can see that it's pretty crappy, and you can't really see the detail on the candles at all, but I guess it gives the main profile.

Just added a zoom in on number 4 showing those great candles.

Let those who have ears hear....

Don't tell me I don't told you so... Lolx... Easy trades for me this month.. Been bangang in Bucks, left right and center, shorting stocks and long Eur and shorting usdjpy..nice payout at the end of the year..

once it reached the expected level S1W (10521) I hope I turn signal to start a long swing

I do so love to see a bit of modesty here on FF!

I am using your strategy pretty much most (if not all) of the time now, just no 20 & 140zl, only 34,100,200,200e and have good results on the 30s-15s tf's. Not great because still I do the opposite of the signals in 30-40% of instances, trying to fix this - it's psychological. Trading sp most of the time and some dow atm as I need no more than 5 ticks stop, still haven't mastered dax stops and with my current platform trading it is too expensive.

"We got a classic signal of divergence between the two indices, which according to one of the demands of the classical theory of Dow should be a warning signal from the potential change in economic conditions in the United States. According to the logic of this concept does not acknowledge a new record average industry from the average transport means that the movement produced goods related to the trafficking was beginning to fade, at some time will be recognized by an industry that responds slowdown in production. "

Don't worry, the market is a great teacher of humility.

Don't worry cat, there is still a lot more to ride the short train starting from this month.. Only difference I got the top, but we get equal chances to make big money..

Hi zoog, I learned that some months ago so this time I am not going to miss the top of the market crash.. GL

Nothing comes at once, but the more practice the more accurate you'll become, and really glad to hear that I have helped a little. The most important part of trading is getting the timing right, especially when using small stops, so really focusing down into those small time frames and waiting for the price to do what you are expecting it to do is really the key.

Using those MAs posted above, you can pretty much understand what has happened today as opposed to yesterday, which was a straight run down on the 15 m chart, both zero lag and 200ema above the 20ema. Today however, the zero lag was beneath interfering with the price, sending it up and down all day. But, and it is a big but, the 200ema were and are still bearing down on the price, resulting in the bigger sell trades than the buys. All we can do now is wiat for support to come in, and as we have just hit the Daily 100sma ( I mentioned this level in an earlier post this morning ) it could be here, though I think we could go a fair bit lower now. Best to take things a day at a time though.

one way. shorties having rip-eye steaks happy i´m green with long only today.

Cant tempt you in one last one for the night...
17459

right, i still wont to long it. and nearly i jumped in at that level. but ama sideways and sma100 still falling, macd not convincing. so decided not to do - atm

Fair Call

long @17473,5 sl -20 tp +60