Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 324 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,461
  • Nov 11, 2015 9:48am Nov 11, 2015 9:48am
Hi Alfonso!
If:
- MN trend is up
- WK trend is up
- D1 ascending trendline is broken but no demand zone has been broken.

As I understand D1 is bullish consolidation. Can we buy D1 demand zones on confirmation, or not?
  • #6,462
  • Nov 11, 2015 10:03pm Nov 11, 2015 10:03pm
Quoting John.
Hi Alfonso! If: - MN trend is up - WK trend is up - D1 ascending trendline is broken but no demand zone has been broken. As I understand D1 is bullish consolidation. Can we buy D1 demand zones on confirmation, or not?
Hi John,

Your question is not complete because you are not telling me where price is, where is it? Is it within Weekly demand, Monthly demand? Where is it bouncing off? Price could be anywhere. Even better, upload charts and it will be VERY clear.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,463
  • Nov 11, 2015 10:06pm Nov 11, 2015 10:06pm
Quoting conom589
Hi Alfonso. If you have two or more H4/H1 DZ in D1 DZ which you prefer to take. The upper one or lower? {image}
That one is easy, all of them if they are follow the rules, 2:1 imbalance, strong departure, good base, etc. There is no preference, I can't decide or prefer one or another, it's the rules that decide for me, so ALL of them The lower the timeframe you use, the more zones and noise you will see, the more losses you will have remember

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,464
  • Nov 11, 2015 10:09pm Nov 11, 2015 10:09pm
Quoting conom589
{quote} Alfonso/ We have 1 full OHCL candle consolidating away from a level in order to validate the imbalance from the level in H4 TF. and no candle away on the D1 demand where that H4 demand is sitting. But in this case our entry TF is H4. My question is: Do we have to have at least one candle consolidating away on the H4 demand (entry TF) and/or on the Daily demand (High TF)? 2-nd question/ 2 OBVIOUS valleys (uptrend) or peaks (downtrend) are needed in order to draw a trendline The second valley MUST make a higher high than the first valley's...
Full OHCL candle consolidating away from the zone? You have to wait for that ON ALL TIMEFRAMES my friend, price is fractal, whatever you apply to one timeframe has to be applied to all timeframes, no difference.

The purple line is the correct one on H4, the yellow one on Daily.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,465
  • Nov 12, 2015 1:39am Nov 12, 2015 1:39am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Are we allowed to short on confirmation?
  • #6,466
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:12am Nov 12, 2015 6:12am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Full OHCL candle consolidating away from the zone? You have to wait for that ON ALL TIMEFRAMES my friend, price is fractal, whatever you apply to one timeframe has to be applied to all timeframes, no difference. The purple line is the correct one on H4, the yellow one on Daily. Cheers, Alfonso
Thanks a lot for your comment and clarification,, Alfonso. What you are teaching people here is invaluable. I am currently watching some of your videos and reading almost 210 pages
  • #6,467
  • Nov 12, 2015 7:34am Nov 12, 2015 7:34am
Quoting dis01
{image} {image} {image} Are we allowed to short on confirmation?
Shorts allowed, be careful though. 3 months demand zone just gained control, first time testing it.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,468
  • Nov 12, 2015 7:35am Nov 12, 2015 7:35am
Quoting conom589
{quote} Thanks a lot for your comment and clarification,, Alfonso. What you are teaching people here is invaluable. I am currently watching some of your videos and reading almost 210 pages
Thanks for your kind words. You have some homework to do I believe, take your time, lot of information to digest and to practice!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,469
  • Nov 12, 2015 12:44pm Nov 12, 2015 12:44pm
Where can I download this indicator?
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  • #6,470
  • Nov 12, 2015 1:53pm Nov 12, 2015 1:53pm
hi, i am reading the thread and watching allt he videos. congratulation to alphonso.
i wish you analyze my view of euro/$
we are in supply control on M
demand control on Daily
we could short all the fresh areas of supply....but the trend is down with overextension. if a OHC candle will break completely this trend it will exausted all the fresh supply zone. am i wrong?
thanks for your efforts. and sorry for my english
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  • #6,471
  • Nov 12, 2015 2:15pm Nov 12, 2015 2:15pm
Quoting conom589
Where can I download this indicator? {image}
It's only available in the community sorry, it's been an indicator developed by members of the set and forget community! Sorry!
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,472
  • Edited 1:13am Nov 13, 2015 12:14am | Edited 1:13am
Hello Alfonso! I have a question about trendline. Rules:

 

  1. ​​When a Trendline is broken, the imbalance originally created that caused the break of the TL will be validated automatically as a valid zone even if an opposing level has not been removed
  2. This new level will be valid as long as 1 HTF zone is not hit and gains control. That is, if an ascending WK TL is broken and a bearish engulfing pattern is confirmed as supply (it broke the TL), it will be valid as long as a HTF MN demand zone or clear HTF are not hit
  3. A level created after a TL break is valid as long as it does not reach an opposing level and that opposing level takes control without being taken out

​
The last two rules, I have confused, a break is valid till price does not reach opposing level or HTF opposing level ?
or its about different things.
And if price did not reach1 HTF zone but took out the zone made by break of trendline (other words price went further in the direction of breaking trendline), we consider that break is not valid and modify our trendline? I have tried to show it in this picture:

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Thanks
  • #6,473
  • Nov 13, 2015 1:24am Nov 13, 2015 1:24am
Quoting dvimix
Hello Alfonso! I have a question about trendline. Rules: ​​When a Trendline is broken, the imbalance originally created that caused the break of the TL will be validated automatically as a valid zone even if an opposing level has not been removed This new level will be valid as long as 1 HTF zone is not hit and gains control. That is, if an ascending WK TL is broken and a bearish engulfing pattern is confirmed as supply (it broke the TL), it will be valid as long as a HTF MN demand zone or clear HTF are not hit A level created after...
Those rules have always been there. An imbalance is good as long as one timeframe higher is in control, why? If there is a D1 demand zone but price reaches a Weekly supply zone before pulling back to the D1 demand entry, then we'll have a bigger timeframe supply zone in control. Weekly supply normally wins over lower timeframes, that's the reason.

In your picture the red trendline was valid but new D1 demand hadn't made a 2:1 imbalance, then price went lower and made a lower low, so trendline needs to be adjusted since a lower low was made.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,474
  • Nov 13, 2015 1:35am Nov 13, 2015 1:35am
Quoting mauroby
hi, i am reading the thread and watching allt he videos. congratulation to alphonso. i wish you analyze my view of euro/$ we are in supply control on M demand control on Daily we could short all the fresh areas of supply....but the trend is down with overextension. if a OHC candle will break completely this trend it will exausted all the fresh supply zone. am i wrong? thanks for your efforts. and sorry for my english {image}
sorry alfonso,
canyou tell something about it? i want to improve my trade.
thanks
  • #6,475
  • Nov 13, 2015 1:38am Nov 13, 2015 1:38am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Those rules have always been there. An imbalance is good as long as one timeframe higher is in control, why? If there is a D1 demand zone but price reaches a Weekly supply zone before pulling back to the D1 demand entry, then we'll have a bigger timeframe supply zone in control. Weekly supply normally wins over lower timeframes, that's the reason. In your picture the red trendline was valid but new D1 demand hadn't made a 2:1 imbalance, then price went lower and made a lower low, so trendline needs to be adjusted since a lower low was made....
Yes, I forgot about 2:1 imbalance. I not always keep in mind all options, but I continue to train in forex tester. So I hope that in some time it will be more lighte for me.
And about my picture, red and blue trendlines, did I paint them correctly?
  • #6,476
  • Nov 13, 2015 1:59am Nov 13, 2015 1:59am
Quoting mauroby
{quote} sorry alfonso, canyou tell something about it? i want to improve my trade. thanks
Hi mauroby!
my thoughts
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but it is countertrend so it is dangerous, may be with confirmation
  • #6,477
  • Nov 13, 2015 5:28am Nov 13, 2015 5:28am
Quoting panoramia
NZD/USD has a bigger picture downtrend, monthly is down and demand zones being removed. Daily is creating potential new imbalances after removing last D1 demand zone, room to drop to tested Weekly Demand Zone {image}

Hello Alfonso, I've got a question regarding your NZDUSD analysis.


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Monthly is clearly down, so short is the way to go, but there was no close below the DZ, so I consider this level still valid and in control.

In the weekly timeframe one SZ (weak one because of the long shadow) was taken out and two DZ have been created. In the weekly DZ is also in control.

Doesn't that mean that we have a long bias in the lower timeframes until we break those levels or we reach a HTF Supply Zone?
  • #6,478
  • Edited 9:34pm Nov 13, 2015 9:20pm | Edited 9:34pm
Alfonso! In video you say "previous area of supply is taken out and becoming potential demand/ It is a very important area"/ So ...

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  • #6,479
  • Nov 15, 2015 11:47am Nov 15, 2015 11:47am
Hello Alfonso!
May I ask a question about a CP nested in higher TF zone?
Here is an example:
WK is down and supply in control
Daily is down and supply in control
Can we trade on set and forget H4 supply nested in Daily supply if Daily trend is down (but H4 is not down any more)?
Thanks in advance!
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  • #6,480
  • Nov 16, 2015 11:58am Nov 16, 2015 11:58am
Quoting mauroby
hi, i am reading the thread and watching allt he videos. congratulation to alphonso. i wish you analyze my view of euro/$ we are in supply control on M demand control on Daily we could short all the fresh areas of supply....but the trend is down with overextension. if a OHC candle will break completely this trend it will exausted all the fresh supply zone. am i wrong? thanks for your efforts. and sorry for my english {image}
Monthly supply is not in control on EURUSD, there is a tested monthly demand zone in control. Bias is shorts, shorts on all valid Daily supply zones unless Daily descending trendline is broken.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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