Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

tp hit. +30

Run to 11,000 taking place now.. SPX500run to 2100 as well

#14'692

Exit @ 10'935, + 10

DAX, Long @ 10'910 (2x)
(next Long around 10'870 if so)

The fact seems that the daily US30 is struggling around its resistance line, which should be running down this month.
See chart, please.
US30USD, Daily, 2015 November 03

Agreed - Friday's high was at 17,849 and yesterday's which was shortly after the NYSE's close was at 17,841.....

It has been a pretty historic run recently, so I presume the bulls will relax somewhere around here and sip their mojitos from their luxury yachts (profit taking, from lesser quality boats than islanders' of course).

Shorting is looking attractive.

Zig Zag Yo-Yo action but trend is still up for the time being.

I use two important moving averages, a big one and a smaller one. In a nutshell, when the big one is above the price, it's bearish, and vise-versa. But it depends on where the smaller one is in relation to the bigger one. If the gap between them is big, with the smaller one close to the price, and the bigger one well above it, then the price can rise up to the bigger one, and that is exactly what happened yesterday. When that happens however, the price drage the smaller one up to the bigger one which acts as a cap for the price. When the two come together, the price will fall, and that is the situation we have today. I have us right now on the 15m 200ema @ 897, with the CP just below, so this is the first most obvious line of support. The price can rise back up off this, but I do not expect 11,000 if we go up that far from here, to be broken. Below the 15m, I have support on the 30m and then the H1. If we do continue to fall, I've got the 30m 200ema @ 843, with the 61.8% just below that @ 830. Moving up to the hour chart, the way is clear down to 750 if they really want to push it down, but I think with the way the technical set up is looking now, we should reach this at least, evn though it may not be today. So Bearish bias for me now, even though it may not be straight down, as we have to get past this 15 m support first.

ps - I have the 38.2% right on top of today's CP, so watch out for that.

I agree no doubt. One must get in early for swing trades though imho (jump in at elevated prices on low volume, and perhaps be prepared for a little heat).

There was talk of Draghi saying he might consider buying stocks? (did I hear that correctly? this is above and beyond current QE / sovereign bonds / ABS purchases and the like).

That would surely ruin my strategy. I would throw much glitter at the man if that happened.

If we do the stats, the last few weeks have been unprecedented. That goes for DAX, EUR50, S&P500 and dow etc (not asx200 interestingly enough, admittedly somewhat commodities driven.. mainly banks drive that index though). This was spurred by comments from central banks.. Rally was not driven by P/L or BS forecasting, discount rates, currency devaluation etc.. earnings expectations have not been that great (regardless of region).

I do not see a reason to be bullish if it weren't for unconventional monetary policy. I'm now uneasy on relying on that...

We should only trade the chart of course.. but at some point fundamentals will be in play.

I remain bearish.

long @10896,8 sl -10 tp +30

sl hit. -10

long q10895,5 sl -10 tp +30

sl = be now.

afk for a while. sl/tp will do the job.

850 is the key level for the Dow, and if it can break above it...?

ps - as usual on normal days, the Dow is driving the Dax in the pm session, and possibility that the Dow push up we've just seen was a triple top formation

US Factory Orders in 2 mins.....

Slightly worse than expected, so Dow went up and retested its overnight high in a 1m grave-yard doji that was also an island reversal. I'll sell a LH or retest with divergence

Got a continuation buy, so hold long from 17,845 with sl +10

So fa DAx unable to break above its pre data high

Edit: SL to +30 - Dax now joint in the rally