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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #14,241
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:22am Oct 23, 2015 7:22am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} You may be right Cat, it looks like it needs a breather after the last 24 hours (over 550 pts), and I see it gunning for the 200sma on Daily at the level you mention (11,115 on my charts). Another FX trader I know is indicating the EURUSD should get to 1.0875 early next week; which just adds more gun powder to this loaded gun!
I was ready to eat humble pie when it pushed up just now to 840, but I could see this coming from my charts. It may be temporary, and we may push up again, but unless we now rally to new highs out of nowhere, we've seen the highs for today, though the Dow could make another run for the highs, always possible with the Dow, though with the weekend now upon us, this should be a time for some profit taking from what has been an amazing run yesterday and today.
  • #14,242
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:29am Oct 23, 2015 7:29am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Another FX trader I know is indicating the EURUSD should get to 1.0875 early next week; which just adds more gun powder to this loaded gun!
Yes, looking at the euro, it's impossible to say how low it could go, as the ECB are desperate to keep it down. On the weeklt chart it's still in the range it's been in since March, but I think it could easily fall back to 10,500. What will that do to the Dax? Up up and up I guess.
  • #14,243
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:51am Oct 23, 2015 7:51am
Quoting cat
{quote} Yes, looking at the euro, it's impossible to say how low it could go, as the ECB are desperate to keep it down. On the weeklt chart it's still in the range it's been in since March, but I think it could easily fall back to 10,500. What will that do to the Dax? Up up and up I guess.
But is the DAX totally Euro dependant what about the USD. That is what if it falls against say the Yen
  • #14,244
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:53am Oct 23, 2015 7:53am
Quoting cat
Yes, looking at the euro, it's impossible to say how low it could go, as the ECB are desperate to keep it down. On the weeklt chart it's still in the range it's been in since March, but I think it could easily fall back to 10,500. What will that do to the Dax? Up up and up I guess.
A lower euro should help the Dax. I don't think we'll head to parity though, the dollar seems to be punching back each time. In addition China will announce its five year plan next week and the BoJ will probably add to the stimulus frenzy, this would take air out of bears when they're propping up the markets.

And we have this nice tidbit from Bloomberg: "CHINA SAID TO PREPARE STATEMENTS CELEBRATING IMF SDR APPROVAL"

I reckon it'll be risk on for next week.
  • #14,245
  • Oct 23, 2015 8:18am Oct 23, 2015 8:18am
Quoting squallpips
{quote} A lower euro should help the Dax. I don't think we'll head to parity though, the dollar seems to be punching back each time. In addition China will announce its five year plan next week and the BoJ will probably add to the stimulus frenzy, this would take air out of bears when they're propping up the markets. And we have this nice tidbit from Bloomberg: "CHINA SAID TO PREPARE STATEMENTS CELEBRATING IMF SDR APPROVAL" I reckon it'll be risk on for next week.
I reckon more gains next week. Just look at the last 5 year charts from September to December and see what happened in almost every year.
  • #14,246
  • Oct 23, 2015 8:25am Oct 23, 2015 8:25am
Playing the range but down to 17415?
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  • #14,247
  • Oct 23, 2015 10:44am Oct 23, 2015 10:44am
Quoting Zoog
{quote} Schade, denn ich mag ForexCube Beitrge. Keine Ahnung weshalb da dein Post scheint vllig normal und harmlos. Wie merkwrdig!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,248
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:14am Oct 23, 2015 11:14am
short @17627,1 sl -20 tp +60
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,249
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:21am Oct 23, 2015 11:21am
Quoting deltaone
short @17627,1 sl -20 tp +60
sl hit. -20
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,250
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:30am Oct 23, 2015 11:30am
short 17649,1 sl -20 tp +60
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,251
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:35am Oct 23, 2015 11:35am
This buy trend has been equally intense as the sell trend of August.
practising coitus interruptus
  • #14,252
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:40am Oct 23, 2015 11:40am
Quoting deltaone
short 17649,1 sl -20 tp +60
sl hit. -20
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,253
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:06pm Oct 23, 2015 12:06pm
short @17657,6 sl -20 tp +60
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,254
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:22pm Oct 23, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting deltaone
short @17657,6 sl -20 tp +60
sma100 tested -> taking sl to be.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,255
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:41pm Oct 23, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} sma100 tested -> taking sl to be.
sl hit. +-0
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,256
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:47pm Oct 23, 2015 12:47pm
long 17658,9
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,257
  • Oct 23, 2015 1:00pm Oct 23, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting deltaone
long 17658,9
out. -10
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,258
  • Oct 23, 2015 1:03pm Oct 23, 2015 1:03pm
daily p/l read. weekly p/l green.

good night...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,259
  • Oct 23, 2015 9:59pm Oct 23, 2015 9:59pm
It's the weekend (sunny and warm here in melbourne ) so thought I'd put some not so intraday stuff up for those interested. The following are a series of 3d yield curves for German sovereign bonds up to 30yr maturity, namely Germany's term structure of interest rates (zero coupon rates). Many thanks to the bundesbank for their efficient updates (what else would we expect from Germany).

First up, a long term view going back to 2000 and ending today.:

View 1:

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View 2:
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View 3:
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Now let's have a look at 2014 to today for a more granular visual:

View 1

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View 2

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View 3.

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Finally, the following is a bird eye view of the term structure of interest rates with the DAX cash close (LHS) and Euro (RHS) superimposed over the top. In the press recently there seems to be confusion about the relationship between bonds and equities. This should give a visual so we can decide for ourselves regarding what sort correlations actually exists (for now.. they can break down of course), and how it changes over time.

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Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #14,260
  • Oct 25, 2015 4:29pm Oct 25, 2015 4:29pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote}
#14'248

Okay, da hab ich wohl überreagiert.
Ich habe hier ber 80% meiner Trades gepostet, die über den Tag oder Tage hinaus gehalten werden. Das entspricht nicht die Absicht des geschätzten Threads - S.1, #1. So denke ich zunehmend, dass ich hier nicht hingehöre (siehe auch #14'219). Bisher sind alle meine Trades (bis auf die letzten zwei oder drei) ins Plus gelaufen. Die letzten Trades warten auf eine grösseren Abwärtsbewegung, - (da ich ohne Stop Loss arbeite), der allerdings auch erst im nächsten Jahr kommen kann. Diese wurden bereits zwischenzeitlich kurzfristig immer mal wieder gehedged - ab und zu auch mit einem Multiplikator.
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