Analytical VSA Trader - Trading with Volume Spread Analysis

Thanks a lot!

I think the most common mistake amongst traders opened trade at the top of the market, right before price reversal. The professional knows people react to the two fears the fear of losses and the fear of missing out, and so trades with this in mind.
http://www.analyticaltrader.com/nzdu...rade-analysis/

VSA trader will analyze price action in the top and bottom quarters of the trading range, because important observations take place in these areas, as the price heads for the supply or support lines. The area above the supply (higher) trend line is known as overbought and the area below the support (lower) trend line is referred to as oversold.
http://www.analyticaltrader.com/cadchf-market-analysis/

In previous NZDCAD analysis I noticed that the price was moving in mark-up phase. An up-trendline with several touches represents support line for the price. The following trade was based on near-trendline setup.
http://www.analyticaltrader.com/nzdc...rade-138-pips/

Price in AUDCAD (M30) is reaching long-term resistance. Long-term resistance is a level of previous high. Such price level always has many locked-in traders who have become trapped buying at the top and hoping for a rise. These locked-in traders want only one thing to get out of the market at a similar price to the one they first started with.
http://analyticalvsatrading.com/2015...-vsa-analysis/

In previous AUDCAD (M30) post I noticed that price was reaching long-term resistance (previous high). The market changed its direction exactly at this price level. After the price crossed up-trendline we had a high volume down-bar with wide spread. If we consider this move on the basis of effort/result - result is bearish.
http://analyticalvsatrading.com/2015...setup-62-pips/

There was only one missing thing in this trade - background was still weak. You do not have to go against the background, because even if other components are right for a long setup, it is most likely that this will not be a winning trade. If background is weak it means that imbalance between supply and demand is in favor of supply.
http://www.analyticaltrader.com/eurj...rade-analysis/

EURUSD was moving in an ascending triangle. The price several times noticed the long-term resistance. Last time when the price approached this level we had 2 weak signals (Supply and Minor Supply). This has led to a price reversal. Right before the lower line of triangle was broken we saw several high volume and wide spread down-bars. The break-out bar was also on high volume.
http://www.analyticaltrader.com/euru...gle-break-out/

We have a long-term support in GBPUSD (H1) chart. This support was established by previous low. Several strong signals (Major and Minor Demand) appeared as the price was approaching the support. One more strong signal here: Shake-out wide spread down bar accompanied by high volume. But next bars are bullish and we see price reversal. It means that it was a stopping volume which contained more buying than selling. Otherwise the price would have continued to fall.
http://www.analyticaltrader.com/gbpu...rade-105-pips/

On the EURNZD chart (H4 timeframe) we can see how phases follow each other: Mark-up - Distribution - Mark-down.
http://analyticalvsatrading.com/2015...-vsa-analysis/

During last Gold analysis I noticed that the price was moving in a bull trend. But on 15 October Analytical Trader has detected weak signal (Supply) on the top of the market. This was a potential reversal point, but it doesnt mean that we have to immediately open a short trade in this point. After a weak signal it is better to close your long trade, but in order to open a short trade we need to wait confirmation - weak background, red dynamic trend. This weak signal formed mid-term resistance. As the price was approaching this resistance, on the chart at once appeared several weak signals. Right after these signals the price continued to fall.
http://analyticalvsatrading.com/2015...ade-2937-pips/

NZDJPY (M5) long trade analysis:
In total we had all the necessary signals for a long trade. But it is very important to timely close the trade if you have the required setup.
Close immediately after 2 Minor Supply or 1 Major Supply (Supply) signals. Here we see that the trade was not closed after several weak signals as the price was approaching long-term resistance this is a mistake. Because weak signals near resistance it is a very big chance that in this place will be price reversal.
http://analyticalvsatrading.com/2015...rade-analysis/

On January 15th this year, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suddenly announced that it would no longer hold the Swiss franc at a fixed exchange rate with the euro, there was the biggest single-day move for this countrys currency in the last 40 years.
Since May, USDCHF movements have been limited by two lines:
1. Up-trendline which represented support for the prices (each next low is higher than previous one);
2. Resistance level (at 0.984) it was a reversal point for the prices.
http://www.analyticaltrader.com/usdc...ged-the-franc/

Price in USDCAD was falling, but major trend was still bullish. Therefore I considered this move as a reaction to upward trend and waited when this move is over to open a long trade.
This trade was opened after dynamic trend changed to green. Also we see that the price has noticed up-trendline which represents support for the prices.
http://analyticalvsatrading.com/2015...etup-322-pips/

Going s'well in stocks , FTSE kinda going sideways trading these intraday swings in stocks .. HSBC:

Swedish krona has been moving in Mark-up phase since March 2014. It was a very persistent bull market without any reaction to the uptrend. As the price was reaching resistance level of previous high, the nature of movement was changed and mark-up phase was replaced by distribution phase.
http://www.analyticaltrader.com/usdsek-market-analysis/

It is not a good idea to open a long trade when the price is near resistance and you do not have strong signals suggesting that it will be broken. Because it is unlikely that the price will leave trading range if there is no imbalance between supply and demand.
http://www.analyticaltrader.com/eurc...rade-analysis/

Our newest indicator Reversals was just released today. This is an indicator that recognizes patterns in price and volume action to determine price reversals accurately. These should be used within a trading system, either as entry or exit points, or as a confirmation of a trend reversal. It looks for different patterns than VSA does, so both can be complemented. The indicator also brings an adjustable sensitivity, changed directly in the chart, which allows to very easily adjust the indicator to the market and to your own trading method.

Reversals in EURUSD H1 with sensitivity = 8 (FxPro feed):


Reversals + VSA in EURUSD M15, as the price is bouncing on a support. VSA shows the background is still weak, though there has been accumulation recently at this level, shown by the green and blue dots/squares (Demand signals) before. Reversals on the other hand pointed out the reversals that VSA failed to, such as the last bounce off the support, as well as the most recent tops, as is normal with a high sensitivity (9). The most likely and strongest reversals are usually when VSA and Reversals both agree. If youre already using VSA, check the blog regularly, where we will do posts that show how to combine these 2 indicators.



Click here to try a free demo on Reversals, and check Reversals page for more information.

Best regards,
Analytical Trader team

As it was noticed in post#253, USDCHF has broken long-term resistance and continued to rise. Background is strong. This is a good time to look for long trades.
http://www.analyticaltrader.com/usdc...trade-61-pips/

I have been following your trades since the inception of this thread. One question only (maybe two). What pairs or crosses and on what beginning time frames do you trade in foreign exchange? I believe you mentioned 16 at one point. I do not trade oil, gold or stocks so I am not concerned about them. For Alexy.