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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #201
  • Oct 8, 2015 4:35am Oct 8, 2015 4:35am
Quoting KzX
I'm hit I'm hit! To the pip;p 277 done
  • #202
  • Oct 8, 2015 4:50am Oct 8, 2015 4:50am
hello,
I am short euro @ 1309 & 1299 with tp 1260. Am i being too greedy or does it look achieveable today😄
  • #203
  • Oct 8, 2015 4:54am Oct 8, 2015 4:54am
I tried a straddle at 14:21 and released one side at 14:34 and then put in a hard stop at -10 pips additional (so roughly two spreads plus 10pips total exposure) 5 min later I was taken on with Net +1.9, on a trailing BE for the naked position it was much less stressful than trying to pinpoint BOTH the entry and exit on a single position.

Trying another straddle entry at 14:41 see how it goes.

I think this might nullify most of my whipsawing in and out of trades. The overall profit potential on 2 positions is less, but I *might* have fewer whips and the same amount of breakevens and an occasional run. Lately my overall position analysis has been correct but not picking the absolute tops and bottoms of swings puts me in a position of getting whipped with more smaller losses that I end up having to trade out of. This method, I think, can allow me to focus ONLY on the EXIT, of course a good entry point is important too, but becomes much less so.

Another benefit is that I double the amount of trade rebates, and I don't have to be stressed out if I miss a swing high or low exit or be glued to the screen for entries, I just take two spreads loss upfront and then at my own discretion and timing I look for an exit point where there might be a replacement of more than 2 spreads and less than a loss of 10 additional pips.

Anyone try this method of scalping and have success with it?

Are there any caveats I should be aware of that I could be overlooking? I realize if I hold both overnight, I'm paying two swaps most likely on EURUSD, so of course the no overnight rule applies, however holding over the weekend becomes much less riskier if I hold going into it with the hedged straddle.

Any comments or insights regarding this scalping method?
  • #204
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:02am Oct 8, 2015 5:02am
Quoting Pipologist
I tried a straddle at 14:21 and released one side at 14:34 and then put in a hard stop at -10 pips additional (so roughly two spreads plus 10pips total exposure) 5 min later I was taken on with Net +1.9, on a trailing BE for the naked position it was much less stressful than trying to pinpoint BOTH the entry and exit on a single position. Trying another straddle entry at 14:41 see how it goes. I think this might nullify most of my whipsawing in and out of trades. The overall profit potential on 2 positions is less, but I *might* have fewer whips...
Just take your trade when you're 99% sure and set exit immedaitely afterwadrs. If your analysis is good then stick to it and wait for profit patiently.
If you have a hint of hesitation, don't take it. If you use indies and i.e. wanna go long, wait untill they are in the bottom, don't take it when the are in the middle or close to the top. The thingy you wrote seems too complicated for scalping, keep it as simple as possible.

[Edit] that's why I sent you the warning that you shouldn't be longing above 1.13.
  • #205
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:13am Oct 8, 2015 5:13am
This EURUSD continues to amaze me with it's daily range and what it does with it. I traded USDJPY exclusively for the last 2 years, but this EUR even in it's so called ranging market is unbelievable. Breathtaking almost. Thought 77 back would be a stretch, who would have thought it would crash back to OR so quickly. This thing stair steps, stair steps and then bang! Almost everyday at some point. Either straight up or straight down, or both. Whew.
  • #206
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:18am Oct 8, 2015 5:18am
Quoting Pipologist
This EURUSD continues to amaze me with it's daily range and what it does with it. I traded USDJPY exclusively for the last 2 years, but this EUR even in it's so called ranging market is unbelievable. Breathtaking almost. Thought 77 back would be a stretch, who would have thought it would crash back to OR so quickly. This thing stair steps, stair steps and then bang! Almost everyday at some point. Either straight up or straight down, or both. Whew.
First reaction to 277 was instant popup, this is where the first stops were and this was my target. I was expecting a bigger bounce to reload, missed it.
Don't regret it tho, planned trade and exit worked out. You cannot have every pip
Nap time.
  • #207
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:24am Oct 8, 2015 5:24am
Deutsche Bank shocks with warning of €6bn losses
  • #208
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:28am Oct 8, 2015 5:28am
Quoting velit
Deutsche Bank shocks with warning of 6bn losses
That can't be good fundamentally for Euro can it?
  • #209
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:37am Oct 8, 2015 5:37am
Quoting velit
Deutsche Bank shocks with warning of 6bn losses
that and good unemployment claims and it still isnt going down.. what am i missing here?
Dont trade like me..
  • #210
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:40am Oct 8, 2015 5:40am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} that and good unemployment claims and it still isnt going down.. what am i missing here?
patience is a virtue
  • #211
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:44am Oct 8, 2015 5:44am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} that and good unemployment claims and it still isnt going down.. what am i missing here?
and yet DAX still in the plus!!!
  • #212
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:44am Oct 8, 2015 5:44am
Quoting teeekay
{quote} patience is a virtue
thanks.. i always forget that.. i kept selling EU and kept closing it with less than 10 pips profit.. bcoz i'm not patient, either that or i was afraid that it might turn back up..
Dont trade like me..
  • #213
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:47am Oct 8, 2015 5:47am
maybe waiting for FOMC tonight
  • #214
  • Oct 8, 2015 5:48am Oct 8, 2015 5:48am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} welcome and thanks for the heads up... just went short on a sell stop at 51 filled at 509 riding it down now, stop at 10p with a buy stop hedge btw Ksth, reasoning, methodology for comment? 100 to 200 pips in a day is pretty large amount. 100 is understandable and within daily ranges but 200...reasoning? FOMC? Draghi? Something you heard, read or saw?
part of the reason is fomc actually base on the other currency which i saw will drop 200pips at least and it will bring down eur usd .
  • #215
  • Oct 8, 2015 6:53am Oct 8, 2015 6:53am
Quoting Ksth
{quote} part of the reason is fomc actually base on the other currency which i saw will drop 200pips at least and it will bring down eur usd .
Sorry but your English and post, and more so your analysis makes little sense and is difficult for me to discern. My translation and short summary of what you said is...


Part of the reason is that FOMC is based on the USD, and their decisions can drop the EURUSD pair 200 pips.

Although you didn't state the other reason(s)...

OK true, but my opinion is that Janet Yellen is not of the type that would create an interest rate rise that would surprise the market that much in this environment. Also, there would be some potential indications before any of this happened, for example, in the overnight Fed funds rate and other leading indicators in the overnight bond markets and rumors as well.

Of course I could be wrong, and time may prove that you are right, in fact, the day and week are not over. But the average daily range for EURUSD is well under 200p even on high volatility days.

In the future, please be sure to include some sort of relevant info or logical reasoning, or useful or even counter intuitive fundamental info when you post here. It doesn't matter if you are wrong in your analysis or assessment, that's the nature of this business we are in. However, for the sake of the thread, I/we want to know either the WHEN, HOW and WHY of your decisions for trading. Again, it doesn't matter that you are wrong...just prefer discussion here, not empty one liners. The title of the thread is EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only....For scalpers and swing traders, timing is much more important than basic fundamental info that everyone is aware of.

I realized that you were just trying to contribute to the thread and appreciate your post, but perhaps this type of post could have been better served for the other EURUSD thread?

By the way, just curious... without 'googling' it, you are most certainly aware of what the acronym "FOMC" stands for, right? I'm sure you do, and all the traders here are very well aware of how and why the US Federal Reserve Board decisions affect and impact global markets. So I especially was looking for a bit more background of why you or anyone else would say something like that. It's remotely similar to walking into a movie theater with patrons and yelling "fire" or "gun"! during a movie. Of course, the post did not have such an impact, and I'm sure you did not intend it to, but it left me scratching my head and wondering "why would someone say something so off the wall like that?"

Again, if your post turns out to be true here by Monday, I will still be left scratching my head, but then wondering "how in the hell did he know that was coming?"

Hope you've had a profitable day today, I for one only made a few ticks above break even and it's affecting my patience to deal with mundane things this evening outside of trading, so I hope that I've not rubbed you or anyone else reading this in the wrong way. All the best.
  • #216
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:04am Oct 8, 2015 7:04am
Quoting KzX
OR on EU 230-35 - 260-65
Any good scalps? I can see we got back perfectly to the opening range 235-265 :nerd:
  • #217
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:05am Oct 8, 2015 7:05am
Quoting KzX
{quote} Any good scalps? I can see we got back perfectly to the opening range 235-265 :nerd:
holdin a long, about to take a nap until 1:30PM EST before the minutes
  • #218
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:45am Oct 8, 2015 7:45am
Quoting KzX
Previously I thought about 1st scenario, then came second... Honestly dunno what's gonna happen next. If they still wanna compress in that triangle they should drop now to lower band and mark proper 5 now but I'd be careful with that as the money flows into commodities for a few days. Scalping is still safer for me on this pair. {image} {image}
If that first scenario is about happen then we should go through the roof.
It's a daily tho, so you knew know when or if at all...

I don't advise to load longs and leave them unattended
  • #219
  • Oct 8, 2015 7:50am Oct 8, 2015 7:50am
Quoting KzX
{quote} If that first scenario is about happen then we should go through the roof.
fundamentally speaking, a status quo decision by the Fed because of stalls in the U.S. econ even though 2 of the board members hinted they were leaning toward increase last month, would tamper dollar buying for another month...which leaves a push out of the triangle up which was my second scenario and chart yesterday as well. Market not coming close to mid or poking below it at this point says alot about the move down we had this afternoon, poised to go through the roof as you say...you bet.
  • #220
  • Oct 8, 2015 8:00am Oct 8, 2015 8:00am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} fundamentally speaking, a status quo decision by the Fed because of stalls in the U.S. econ even though 2 of the board members hinted they were leaning toward increase last month, would tamper dollar buying for another month...which leaves a push out of the triangle up which was my second scenario and chart yesterday as well. Market not coming close to mid or poking below it at this point says alot about the move down we had this afternoon, poised to go through the roof as you say...you bet.
Intraday on EU is a pure mindfuck game. Regarding hikes...all I can say...hmmm...the sentiment on one serious trading floor here in Warsaw is 50/50.
You can say that it's as good as nothing but to me it means that they don't look only towards 'no hikes' scenario.
Anyway if there will be hikes we will see pump > dump, no hikes dump > pump/consolidation.
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