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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #81
  • Oct 6, 2015 9:07am Oct 6, 2015 9:07am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} Can u plz tell me what tf those charts belong to and what pair? sorry if its a silly question..
EURUSD Daily
  • #82
  • Oct 6, 2015 9:15am Oct 6, 2015 9:15am
Quoting KzX
{quote} EURUSD Daily
thanks..
but the 1st scenario u mentioned is the 2nd picture, right? u expected it to happen but the 1st picture is what really happened today, isnt it?
its just a doubt for me.. sorry if my wordings sound otherwise..
Dont trade like me..
  • #83
  • Edited 10:54am Oct 6, 2015 9:31am | Edited 10:54am
Yup this is correct 2nd one was first drawn during the weekend. I had doubts regarding lower line as for bulish wolife wave it 'should' be descending. In second scenario (first picture) it's ascending - I saw that pattern a few times.
Anyho I expected stop hunt after nfp and wave 5 which happened, then boost which came up today.

Oh and the first scenario was (2nd pic) in case Fed wanna go hikes next time.
If not > 1.1850
  • #84
  • Oct 6, 2015 9:34am Oct 6, 2015 9:34am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} thank you.. traded one year, but i'm still a newbie.. this SL thing is killing me and my account.. to SL or not to SL..
If stop loss is killing you and your account is because you need to adjust your risk %
And if it was me, always stop loss.

Good hunting
  • #85
  • Oct 6, 2015 9:44am Oct 6, 2015 9:44am
Quoting seahorse
{quote} If stop loss is killing you and your account is because you need to adjust your risk % And if it was me, always stop loss. Good hunting
thanks.. i think i learned my lesson, so i always use SL too.. but i hate it getting hit..
Dont trade like me..
  • #86
  • Oct 6, 2015 9:46am Oct 6, 2015 9:46am
Quoting KzX
Yup this is correct 2nd one was first drawn during the weekend. I had doubts regarding lower line as for bulish wolife wave it 'should' be descending. In second scenario (first picture) it's ascending - I saw that pattern a few times. Anyho I expected stop hunt after nfp and wave 5 which happened, then boost which came up today. Oh and the first scenario was (2nd pic) in case wanna go hikes next time. If not > 1.1850
sorry, the pictures were misplaced, that it got me confused.. and thx for ur reply..
Dont trade like me..
  • #87
  • Oct 6, 2015 9:51am Oct 6, 2015 9:51am
In a few minutes.


ECB publishes guiding principles for speeches and meetings 6 October 2015

  1. Principles concern Executive Board member meetings and speaking engagements
  2. Principles underscore ECB commitment to transparent two-way communication

The European Central Bank (ECB) today publishes a document outlining the guiding principles followed by its Executive Board members when communicating with private, academic or civil society representatives.

  • #88
  • Oct 6, 2015 2:54pm Oct 6, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting KzX
Yup this is correct 2nd one was first drawn during the weekend. I had doubts regarding lower line as for bulish wolife wave it 'should' be descending. In second scenario (first picture) it's ascending - I saw that pattern a few times. Anyho I expected stop hunt after nfp and wave 5 which happened, then boost which came up today. Oh and the first scenario was (2nd pic) in case Fed wanna go hikes next time. If not > 1.1850
In a sense both scenarios were correct in that you had a move to the upper wedge line, but who would have expected it to happen within a day basically...I don't know why but for the last 3 weeks the number 1.20 has been popping up into my head when not looking at charts. Last time this happened was when JPY was at 80ish and I kept thinking 105 and it happened within a few months. Many times our subconscious analysis is much more accurate than the reality of staring at minute charts all day every day. One thing I noticed about the really huge traders is that they trust their subconscious much more than what others currently see. I'm not there yet, need to learn to let go.
  • #89
  • Edited 3:20pm Oct 6, 2015 3:04pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} thanks.. i think i learned my lesson, so i always use SL too.. but i hate it getting hit..
I don't think there is anyone in the world that enjoys having their stop hit. Even those that say weird things like they don't mind...blah blah blah...

I having a SL and still having cash to trade even if it is less, is better than not having any cash left to trade because of forgetting to place stops at the wrong times.

I once had dinner some Chicago Board of Trade floor traders, one who also ran his own floor brokerage, and he said "always gotta keep your power dry and preserve it, so that you have it when you need to use it". At the time, I took it simply as "you gotta preserve your capital", but it's much more than that. I think the longest lasting scalpers have a gut feel for "protecting and self preservation first and foremost" rather than "going for the kill", for me personally, I'm trying to find a balance between the two, but "going for the kill or win" definitely also exposes yourself to "the distinct possibility of getting killed and losing". The long lasting consistently winning traders take more carefully measured risks, the thing with scalping is that you need to make these decisions several times a day and sometimes within seconds or minutes of each other, and a bad mistake can mess you up for the next several trades, therein lies the challenge and it's inherent rewards, but at the same time, makes it extremely difficult for the vast majority of traders. If successful traders make up less than X % of the trading population, I would have to say that successful intraday traders make up less than one twentieth of the successful trading population. Anyway I digress...

Keep your powder dry.
  • #90
  • Oct 6, 2015 3:43pm Oct 6, 2015 3:43pm
Using Close+Open divided by modified pivot formula for midpoint and SR I have 562 and 863 as projected OR low and high with midpoint at 712 the +/- 15 SR levels based on this formula has been working well for me the last several days. Others will probably want to round and use actual OR numbers. I like to have them plotted automatically in MT4 thus the use of the formula, I also because of my time zone, prefer to trade Asia session and be done with well before NY opening, although this is a nearly impossible thing to do.
  • #91
  • Oct 6, 2015 3:44pm Oct 6, 2015 3:44pm
EU levels for October 7

1.12680
1.12260
1.12050
1.11880
  • #92
  • Oct 6, 2015 4:15pm Oct 6, 2015 4:15pm
Quoting seahorse
EU levels for October 7 1.12680 1.12260 1.12050 1.11880
I may be wrong today, but aren't those levels skewed to the downside only?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #93
  • Edited 5:11pm Oct 6, 2015 4:58pm | Edited 5:11pm
Seems to be some early morning accumulation at 65, this could break down any minute but has upheld twice on one minute charts, if it also plays out on 5 minute charts or if we go above 72 again it could indicate a run to 78 and then to the upper projected ORH of 86 which would be a test of yesterday's high high from 2 days ago.

I sold this morning and covered quickly for +4 and am long now from 70 with a very tight stop.

Edit: minute later, run towards 78 is in progress looks like we may push towards upper range of 86 within an hour, this is either going to be an up and then fake to the downside day, or a start of a stronger EUR move, which actually started two three days ago (with the spike up), if the second scenario is in place, we should see some strong hourly bars that rock it past 1.1320. Either way a test of the spike two days ago seems like it's in play. I'm fairly positive that we will test yesterday's high high from 2 days ago before NY if not sooner.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #94
  • Oct 6, 2015 5:11pm Oct 6, 2015 5:11pm
entry buy today at 1.11900. Exit at 1.12731.
current entry at 8 PM EST 1.12865 sell. let's see where we go.
  • #95
  • Oct 6, 2015 5:19pm Oct 6, 2015 5:19pm
Quoting Soccerhed
entry buy today at 1.11900. Exit at 1.12731. current entry at 8 PM EST 1.12865 sell. let's see where we go.
As far as I can see, we have not traded anywhere near 1.1190 today as of yet. Are you talking about a LIMIT buy order at 1.1190? Or a buy stop order at 1.1290?

I can't imagine any orders filled at 90 today yet.

Also we have not traded at 1.1286 for since day before yesterday...are you talking about a previously opened position from a couple of days ago?
  • #96
  • Oct 6, 2015 5:29pm Oct 6, 2015 5:29pm
reversed my long for minus 0.2 pips or 2 ticks. no biggie. did not like the way that last one min bar and 30 min bar shaped.

now short from 692 looking at 63 and 56 as next potential tp areas.

if we bounce again from 65 I have to assume we are headed up today for at least the 1st half of the day.
  • #97
  • Oct 6, 2015 5:42pm Oct 6, 2015 5:42pm
10-5-15 7 pm entry
  • #98
  • Edited 6:41pm Oct 6, 2015 5:51pm | Edited 6:41pm
Quoting Soccerhed
10-5-15 7 pm entry
that's what I thought.

Looks like morning bounce from 65 is off the table we are headed for the projected ORLsupport of 56

possible scenarios for today:

1. we bounce up from 56
2 we go to 41 fake and then up plus 60 or more pips.
3. we establish 71 as an interim resistance level for the day and use that to go down 60p or more.
4. Others?

Short from 692 moved to BE...trying to trade today without making any analytical or emotional/psychological mistakes.

update if it doesn't break 60 this morning, looks as if that could be the actual OR low support today, a nice round number divisible by 15/30.

update 2 looks like a little bouncing off 60 is in play, closed short for +3.4p and now long again from 656 with tight stop initial tp targets at 71 midpoint 78 upper midpoint and 83 upper projected ORhigh support.
  • #99
  • Oct 6, 2015 7:47pm Oct 6, 2015 7:47pm
very aggressive bar at 5:42 this morning. what causes those kinds of bars? stop hunting at this hour? or large orders pushing it up and down...the action afterwards seems to suggest it was large buy orders coming in and others coatailing it.
  • #100
  • Oct 6, 2015 10:04pm Oct 6, 2015 10:04pm
I'm short for swing trade here at 1.12653 from about 1.1277 all my intra day and longer term charts are screaming top to me right now. I think this is going to be a sell for at least more than half a day and possibly extending days longer. Not worried about scalps right now looking at a 1 to 3 day swing. I could be wrong here but willing to bet that today's OR low support is not going to hold. Good luck all, if this plays out see you in a couple/few days. If not, I'll probably be back sooner.
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