Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

rinse and repeat

achieved, lets see how it behaves now

You have to admit my plan worked surprisingly well, the bounce off 47.3 wasn't big but 50-60 cents is still enough and now i closed my short at 47.0 because on the daily chart we got 4 days in a row of dicline today thereds a good chance for a close on green

yes we will, a rebound is in progress from 46.85 touch down.

Crude touched new trend lows of $47.08 eyes now on the April 1 low of $47.01. A bout of dollar weakness failed to support prices, as another China equity market sell-off dented demand expectations. On the supply side, an uptick in operating oil rigs last week implies gains in U.S. production, while reports that Iraq will produce record volumes this month, should keep pressure on prices for the foreseeable future.

After $47, the next level of target support is seen enar the January lows at $43.52, and then the March lows at $42.03. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at $49.96. Momentum remains negative with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index which is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory. The only caveat to further negative price action is that the RSI is printing a reading of 22, [ on daily chart ] below the oversold trigger level of 30 and could foreshadow a correction.

H1 100 MA barrier then 49.20, lets see how 48.03 behaves for now.

I don't know how do you miss the most obvious resistance - 48.6$ for the uptrend and for the downtrend its todays low which can be broken if we see another rise in inventory tomorrow i think

My two cents right now....

SELL in a short M15 period.

Continuing the trade...

How do you think that Oil will response to the Fed failing to hike their interest rates?
I have compiled my Oil fundamental analysis in a simple 4 minute video. Enjoy it

i will stop shorting bellow 44.....what do you guys think .....will it rearch bellow 43?

I am a day trader, and still there are no signs (at least in the short term -next 2 hrs-) of a clear halt of the trend.
(Unfortunately I don't have the same strategy for D1 but it would be interesing to see that too).

busy in here too

Nice video.thanks. I dont think Saudis or any OPEC member would cut production. They woulnt want to lose their share of the market. Prices will eventually go up when world economy improves. Saudis, instead of cutting down, have actually increased their production from 30mil to 31.5mil barrels. As for Iran, they have los of oil stored since the sanctions, they'll start finalising their oil contract as soon as 2 to 3 weeks from now. Also, don't forget Nigeria factor, they've become an oil producing giant too. Basically, oil is overflowing in the market and there's not enough consumption. On top of that, the clean energy sector is growing leaps and bounds. In my point of view... oil price, when it goes up, will be just because of industrial and other economic improvements. All other factors may weigh in for temporary corrections. I believe oil should see $35...$30 or even $25 before it moves back up and in long term it will settle around $60-$70. I really dont think it will ever settle above that mark again.

Technical traders seem to be bearish on oil today (#twitter)
Let's see if they are right on this one.
15m to open.

Just took out the daily low. There were quite a few traders selling that low.
As soon as they sold buyers instantly swept 2*4 tix up leaving them trapped.
Nice Shakeout.

Some big swinging d*ck just sold 300 lot and pushed price y 8 tix in a second... Selling pressure is huge.

CL is relatively thin now... the avg thickness is 200lot/10 tix

ninja. 10:36 - 10:47 CDT USA. SEE IF THIS MAKES SENSE.

Welcome back. I wanted to elaborate on what I posted here yesterday.

These charts have proven to be fairly effective for me exclusively on the CL CME contract. All results are vulnerable to gyrations based upon: the time of the day, the day of the week, the proximity to the week-long monthly roll-over extravaganza, and the wanton activity surrounding the release of the weekly oil inventory report.

My methodology is SOP (seat of pants). To select an entry point I do NOT use support, resistance, pivots, ranges, fractals, falling knives, Fibonacci retracements, Gann fans, Elliott waves, candle stick patterns, or my Magic 8-Ball; I use the multiple synchronous cross-over points illustrated on the attached charts. Trades (TRIGGERS) generally materialize very quickly and are often only viable for a few minutes (or less); you snooze, you lose. No holding onto positions overnight. Entrances are ALWAYS limit orders. Stop losses are ALWAYS used. YOU HAVE TO SET YOUR OWN PROFIT (AND LOSS) TARGET TO EXIT YOUR TRADE (by whatever means you prefer; i.e., threshold of pain). You will observe that the Bollinger Band Width (BBW) depressions coincide with HFT spikes (learning that alone is well worth the price of admission). The BBW can only predict timing, NOT price direction. Please be aware that any expressed labels and noted time frames on the chart pages are intended as a matter of reference for me, and are most likely meaningless to the reader (dont put any credence in them). The exception is on the chart feb_1a_old_HH_ which has un-labeled square-tooth BBW indicators in the bottom panel. Note that the BBW is NOT a Ninja indicator.

I have included all of my NINJA charts and I have circled (one example of) the chart movements with identical TRIGGER times. If you compare similar (i.e., synchronized) chart movements with the noted example you will find an exceptionally dependable precursor to (an immediate) price movement. Times to note: 11:03:31, 11:05:51, 11:08:30.

Times are CDT USA. UTC/GMT -5 hours. Chart date: 02 Sep 15

Choose your battles carefully. Happy hunting.

/s/ bfs

03 september 2015

I wanted to pass along a few early morning BBW signals. You will note that there are six (6) square-tooth lines for the BBW indicator; three (3) red and three (black). The thicker the line, the longer the time period. The red lines are LINEAR REGRESSION signals. The more lines in the (deep) depression zone, the greater the probability of a strong move. Not all lines have to be in the deep depression zone if you have confirming signals from other charts. [TUNE FOR MAXIMUM SMOKE.] Remember that the BBW does NOT indicate the move's direction; there are other indicators that can be used for that purpose.

While this may appear to be CURVE FITTING, it is NOT. The depression zone unquestionably precedes the price move.

/s/ bfs

Does anyone now know what is the best strategy to use for crude