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vsa with Malcolm

  • #27,061
  • Aug 31, 2015 3:17pm Aug 31, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting InnerGrowth
{quote} Hello Pres78. Does your daily bars closed at 17h00 EST? Thanks InnerGrowth
Yes I only trade on NY close charts (end of day 05:00 (or 17:00) EST).
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,062
  • Aug 31, 2015 3:24pm Aug 31, 2015 3:24pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yes I only trade on NY close charts (end of day 05:00 (or 17:00) EST).

Hello Pres78, ok cool and thx a lot.

Also, what do you means, you only trade on NY close charts? You always wait for the daily chart to close and use it in your decision making before you put any trade during the coming day or?

Again thx a lot for all you great insight that you are sharing with us on this great thread. I am a really big fan of VSA and was trading it back in 2006-2008 and then quit as my job was too time consuming but now I am back and love volume analysis to trade.

Too bad people like Malcombm Inter or even HiddenGap that don't post much anymore about VSA are not here more frequently as this thread is absolutely awesome for anybody liking VSA. I am still reading it again at page 140 for now.

InnerGrowth
  • #27,063
  • Aug 31, 2015 3:31pm Aug 31, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting InnerGrowth
{quote} Hello Pres78, ok cool and thx a lot. Also, what do you means, you only trade on NY close charts? You always wait for the daily chart to close and use it in your decision making before you put any trade during the coming day or? Again thx a lot for all you great insight that you are sharing with us on this great thread. I am a really big fan of VSA and was trading it back in 2006-2008 and then quit as my job was too time consuming but now I am back and love volume analysis to trade. Too bad people like Malcombm Inter or even HiddenGap that...
No what I mean is that I only trade using charts that the daily bar closes at 17:00 EST. I like these charts as for me they give the most accurate Daily and 4hr bars. For trades on the Daily charts then yes I will only make my decisions after the bar closes that Day or Week or Month.

My intraday trades on smaller TF's like 1hr and under however are not influenced by the main trends on the 4hr and higher charts. I will have long term trades that are say short EURUSD based on Daily TF but will still take long trades on EURUSD trading the smaller retraces within the bigger trends as my VZA zones allow.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,064
  • Aug 31, 2015 3:37pm Aug 31, 2015 3:37pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} No what I mean is that I only trade using charts that the daily bar closes at 17:00 EST. I like these charts as for me they give the most accurate Daily and 4hr bars. For trades on the Daily charts then yes I will only make my decisions after the bar closes that Day or Week or Month. My intraday trades on smaller TF's like 1hr and under however are not influenced by the main trends on the 4hr and higher charts. I will have long term trades that are say short EURUSD based on Daily TF but will still take long trades on EURUSD trading the smaller...
Hello Pres78.

Ok thx a lot for your explanation and it make perfect sense. Trading intraday countertrend is risky and the fact that you do it shows how much a good trader you are. Really amazing how does FF got so many great traders that do take time to post their analysis and what they see as others as myself can learn a lot from it.

Really appreciate it

InnerGrowth
  • #27,065
  • Aug 31, 2015 4:09pm Aug 31, 2015 4:09pm
GBPCAD Daily Chart ND on Friday. Did anyone get in short off that SOW today?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,066
  • Aug 31, 2015 4:14pm Aug 31, 2015 4:14pm
Quoting pres78
GBPCAD Daily Chart ND on Friday. Did anyone get in short off that SOW today?

Hello Pres78

Didn't got any No Demand on GBPCAD on my charts for Friday. My daily chart also closed at 17h00 EST but I don't see it.

Maybe put a chart if you want

Thanks

InnerGrowth
  • #27,067
  • Edited 5:07pm Aug 31, 2015 4:23pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting InnerGrowth
{quote} Hello Pres78 Didn't got any No Demand on GBPCAD on my charts for Friday. My daily chart also closed at 17h00 EST but I don't see it. Maybe put a chart if you want Thanks InnerGrowth
Pretty clear ND on my chart. As I always say trade what you see on your charts as that is the best information you have at hand.

Ignore the open trade as it's not pure VSA (who am I kidding nothing I do is pure VSA). It is a Daily entry, based on volume and that ND but the actual entry location was derived differently and not pure VSA shorting the low... One however could have entered pure VSA shorting the low of that ND. SL would have to be quite wide though at around 200ish pips.

Anyway... as I said on my charts it was a clear ND based on the ND criteria.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADiDaily.png Size: 58 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,068
  • Aug 31, 2015 5:51pm Aug 31, 2015 5:51pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Pretty clear ND on my chart. As I always say trade what you see on your charts as that is the best information you have at hand. Ignore the open trade as it's not pure VSA (who am I kidding nothing I do is pure VSA). It is a Daily entry, based on volume and that ND but the actual entry location was derived differently and not pure VSA shorting the low... One however could have entered pure VSA shorting the low of that ND. SL would have to be quite wide though at around 200ish pips. Anyway... as I said on my charts it was a clear ND based...

Hello PRes78

Very nicely done and another great exemple of your great knowledge of VSA.

Thx for the chart

InnerGrowth
  • #27,069
  • Aug 31, 2015 5:56pm Aug 31, 2015 5:56pm
GBPCAD watch 2.03...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,070
  • Aug 31, 2015 8:51pm Aug 31, 2015 8:51pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} One however could have entered pure VSA shorting the low of that ND.

well there was a scrumptious & both VSA & non-VSA based short entry at that level (low of that daily ND) on a lower time frame chart.
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #27,071
  • Sep 1, 2015 2:38am Sep 1, 2015 2:38am
Quoting Vcv13
{quote} well there was a scrumptious & both VSA & non-VSA based short entry at that level (low of that daily ND) on a lower time frame chart.
Although not super high volume by comparison look at where the low of yesterday's highest volume 1 hour zone was... right at the low of that ND day.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,072
  • Sep 1, 2015 5:42am Sep 1, 2015 5:42am
Quoting pres78
GBPCAD watch 2.03...
Down over 180 pips from this level... Did anyone else get in short? Currently clunking around at a long standing support level from July 2015.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,073
  • Sep 1, 2015 5:48am Sep 1, 2015 5:48am
NFP this week, could make volatile markets even crazier. Trade carefully.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,074
  • Sep 1, 2015 6:18am Sep 1, 2015 6:18am
Quoting pres78
That's one impressive looking ND on EURUSD Daily Chart. Wow! GBP bank holiday could for sure have played some factor but man oh man that bar is weak looking. 1.1 would appear to be the next logical stop on the train. Will the bulls kick back in there and defend or will we soon be seeing parity (sorry big banks that are predicting higher prices)? Insert SM subliminal message here "You must buy, buy, buy because the EURO is heading higher"... If 1.1 gives and holds we lose our Daily TF bull structure by making that LL. For those of you that...
Low of the Daily ND firmly in place. Also as a side note the highest volume 1hr bar from yesterday printed right at the days low and actually made the lowest price for yesterday. Push up at LO followed by a weak drop into NYO where we found ourselves back at the high of the 1hr zone from Monday. The market seems to be finding support at this level.

Right now I'm looking for EURUSD to move back up into the 1.1370ish area (does this level look familiar to anyone else ). I have an UHV level around that area which could offer up a good resistance / shorting level.

We see this quite often. A ND followed by another 1 or even 2 up bars on a variety of volume that ends the retrace and starts the next leg down. For me right now with that Daily ND yesterday I am expecting to see a continuation of the down move once we get back up to that 1.1370ish zone.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,075
  • Sep 1, 2015 6:38am Sep 1, 2015 6:38am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Low of the Daily ND firmly in place. Also as a side note the highest volume 1hr bar from yesterday printed right at the days low and actually made the lowest price for yesterday. Push up at LO followed by a weak drop into NYO where we found ourselves back at the high of the 1hr zone from Monday. The market seems to be finding support at this level. Right now I'm looking for EURUSD to move back up into the 1.1370ish area (does this level look familiar to anyone else ). I have an UHV level around that area which could offer up a good resistance...
Option 2 would be for the low of the Daily ND and that 1hr zone from Monday to be taken out and then tested from below for a nice shorting opportunity. The low is right around 1.115... HMM that one sounds familiar also.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,076
  • Sep 1, 2015 7:37am Sep 1, 2015 7:37am
Intra-day short on Oil. Effort back up into $47.20 support turned resistance level. Highest volume of the day, close well off the high and closed below the $47.20 level. Went short at the open of the next bar. Entry $47.15, SL $47.65. TP eyeing the $46 level which is the mid of that WR, UHV bar from yesterday and also near the swing high from the day before.

Just took half off the table and now at BE for the rest. Free ride, see what happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,077
  • Sep 1, 2015 8:18am Sep 1, 2015 8:18am
Mostly standard trade for me. We have some support building, and an easy target level of the last high volume bar. Wasn't high volume but with that many lower wicks i felt comfortable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,078
  • Edited 12:26pm Sep 1, 2015 11:59am | Edited 12:26pm
I would like to mention that while I gave a couple of scenarios for possible shorts on EURUSD I am also very aware of the fact that we have found support at my line in the sand for the bulls I posted about some time ago (1.115). Based on a bounce at 1.115 the bull PA structure is still firmly in place as it would be a HL. Also the volume on the whole down move that came after the Aug 24th UHV day was decreasing day after day terminating with that ND yesterday. The next few days will be interesting and should offer more clues into the longer term path for the EURUSD.

I would want to see signs of clear buying and lack of selling before I become a longer term buyer on this pair.

The key levels remain for me on this pair right now 1.115 below and 1.1370 above.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,079
  • Edited 7:25am Sep 2, 2015 7:00am | Edited 7:25am
Quote
"Imagine you are an engineer monitoring a car's performance by remote control. Your instruments only allow you to see the power applied to the accelerator pedal (volume) and a second engineer is looking at the cars actual motion (price movement). The second engineer informs you that the car is moving forward uphill; however, this uphill movement is not in keeping with your observation of power to the accelerator pedal, which you observe is very low. You would naturally be somewhat sceptical, as you know a car cannot go uphill without sufficient...

1. Bullish volume is increasing volume on up-moves and decreasing volume on down-moves.

2. Bearish volume is increasing volume on down-moves and decreasing volume on up-moves.

Bare with me here, I'd really appreciate a thorough answer on this because it's a big problem area for me. I've been trading VSA for a while now and have had mixed success, mostly focusing on high volume reactions, upthrusts and effort vs results but I'm still unsure about a market moving on low volume.

Whenever I see a market moving (let's say for example) up on low volume, I am inclined to think "it's taken less ticks to move the market up this distance, so less effort has been required to produce the result, so this candle is bullish." However Tom Williams time and again makes statements about markets moving on low volume being a sign of no professional interest.

I'll try to break this down into a few paragraphs:

1) How can a market move without professional interest? We're told that 90%+ of the money in the markets is professional money. If there is no professional interest in the market moving up, then how can the herd move the market up on low volume? This can only be done if there is almost no resistance to higher prices from the smart money. Yet smart money is bearish, so how can that be? The only solution I can come up with, is that the smart money is through accident or coincidence very well co-ordinated and the vast majority of it has completely with drawn from the market. So they are not pushing the price up, but equally they have no interest in resisting the up move.

2) If there is a low volume up bar with a medium spread closing near it's high, is this ever a ND candle? TW talks about there being a lack of power on the accelerator so it must be a false move... but Wyckoff seems to say that due to EvR, if it's made a reasonable amount of progress on low volume, there is a lack of resistance so it's a bullish sign. What then should we define as our NS/ND candles? Do we only take candles which close in the middle / low (for an up bar)? Only candles with a small spread? Is the answer in waiting for a close above/below?

3) TW also talks about high volume being required to break through a trendline or S/R. Very often it seems price moves to a trendline (say a resistance point above the market) then you get a few no supply candles then the trendline is broken on relatively low volume. High volume here seems to be resistance, very likely in my view to be the herd frantically trying to trade a breakout, whilst the smart money is selling to them. High volume often leads to an upthrust. Plus if there is high volume at a line of resistance, this shows a lot of interest in both buying and selling. I believe that SM is not going to markup price while there is so much interest, they will absorb it and build a position. So if SM really was bullish and high volume turns up at resistance, they will likely let the herd push it down and continue to buy from them, waiting for the herd to give up before marking price up.

4) SM buys low, sells high.. so shouldn't bullish volume be volume which increases on downmoves? Not upmoves as TW says. If volume is increasing on upmoves, it's taking an increasing amount of volume to move the market, which is a bad sign for the up move. Or are these statements about "bullish and bearish volume" to be taken in isolation? i.e. without looking at the spreads of each bar. It would make sense that increasing volume on an upmove is bullish only if the spreads of each bar are also increasing.

5) Can the big market makers like Deutsche Bank manipulate price in the wrong direction without actually committing any money? If they're able to just somehow magically move the price upwards without buying themselves, this would explain how a low volume upmove can be bearish. Is this possible? By messing with the spreads perhaps?

Thanks so much.
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #27,080
  • Sep 2, 2015 8:14am Sep 2, 2015 8:14am
That $46 target I was eyeing on my short yesterday became a shared level being that it is 50% of the Aug 31st bar and the low of the Sept 1st 1hour highest volume bars.

That level was the key point for sell trades today.

Right now we are below and testing up into the low of the Aug 31st zone (around $44.30).

Let's see where we go from here.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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