Discovering An Edge

Your 5x .... 5 lots or 5 times normal size.....or legs to scale out with?

the reason I ask is, I am wondering if this is normal or new?
FWIW.....i like the audjpy play, just not in this moment. With China making a rate move and easing bank reserve rates, the Chinese markets should stabilize short term, thus a bounce in aud and weakness in JPY. I am also on the other side of the Eur trade, but am trading short term setups and yours are more of a swing trading. Keep in mind a LOT of the over positioned short in Eur has come off, due to the leverage unwind on Dax. That was the impetus of the recent Eur pop. The next big swing, IMO, is back to the low side of the recent range.

Hey Mike, cheers for asking. They're not proper "lots" because I spreadbet in the UK. They are equivalent to mini-lots but are £1 per pip, not $1. So effectively, I am trading £5 per pip on that trade.... which is currently underwater, but I was prepared for that - busy at work.

Added new longs: 3xEURUSD @ 11371 and 2xUSDSGD @ 14018 and 2xGBPNZD @ 24077.
Too busy at work to post commentary.

The EURUSD is underwater.... great!
Structure is still there for upside.... i could be wrong.

hi vlady, did you check the eu weekly chart? does not look too good...

Hey TashK, I'm aware it... but we still have 2.5 days left.... if we remain above 11391 then it's not red-alert yet. 11495 is the key mid number.
The thing is... current 4H shows agression on the upside, but I can't yet tell if it's selling momentum or buying.

Edit: I mean, currently it's obvious price is going higher... but I'm not sure if it's only seeking 11427 or 11495

This thread and posts from Skfx are some of the best material currently on ForexFactory:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=553445

Awesome Awesome stuff.

Closed GBPNZD +32, USDSGD +72

with the GDP beat, in line PCE, and good jobless claims, I see a rate hike in September that is not currently priced in. The recent turmoil in China has stabilized for now, and I think it shows the fed that they should have raised once or twice earlier so as to add some arrows back in the quiver. Just my .02

Hi Vlady,

I follow your thread, and am happy to see your good result. I would like to draw the attention for eur-usd monthly fibonacci ret. level on 1.1209.
i suppose that this month close nearly that level. when it touch that level usdx touch 95,92 level(that level is midpoint of monthly chart.)
and also i think euro has no chance unless usdx monthly close below 94 level.
e-u has corridor between1.1209-1.1450 level for horizontal action. next touch of 200 ema of daily tf brings down movement is more possible for short-middle term.
what are your opinions mate.

E-U monthly close 1.1209 headshot
USDX 95.96 hearth shot:nerd:

Great analysis P.A.

My Monthly close for EU 11218.3 (igindex.com) so I would say that currently it's pushing upwards

In terms of my views:

Fundamentals / Geopolitical
Whilst EUR and the EU union has its problems with Greece and under the radar, all the other pigs, the 3 big power plays are USD (potential interest rate rise), CNY (devaluation affecting pretty much rest of world as China is currently its engine) and Commodities/Oil/Gold Price crash.

I'm eyeing the latter as a reasonable play to the EUR as risk is taken away from commodities into safer currencies - and I think there are more reasons to keep EUR afloat than there is to keep Oil Prices above 60 cents. A rise to 1.18 which is under your mid of 1.21315 does not seem unrealistic at all if you consider what that value should mean for the USD.

The dollar has been skyrocketing for quite some time now as well and generally speaking, exports needs $ to devalue. Interest Rate rise would increase the value of Dollar and also kill the stock market. The recent dip in stock market indices may actually be pricing a "no change" and the dollar can therefore depreciate further allowing exports room to grow. This would also mean a further push in stock market values... just for a little while longer. A pending crash of the stock market will have what affect on the dollar? Up? Then what affect on Eur - down or something else to peg it near parity?

Technicals :

Elliot Wave
My general problem in looking at monthly tf is that I have no idea how to apply the EW pattern. If one was a cynic, it could be argued that we are only on Wave 2 from the very last swing top near 1.3839. On lower timeframes, eg. Daily, I've seen all types of interpretations from 1-5 waves already completed (Down trend) and we are now in an ABC correction (Consolidation), through to 1-3 and now currently in Wave 4 (up) expecting Wave 5 to be further downtrend (past parity).

Trendline Breakout
Based on Daily trendline connecting tops 11467 and 11214, this method on the monthly is projecting 1180.3, 1176.8, 1206.8. These coincide with your fib level mids.
It also converges with Bollinger Band levels (see below) which if supported, tends towards longs.

I think this is realistic but I have no way of knowing if it will go there or not. I generally don't try to predict as a trigger for my trades. Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. I see if a setup of the trendline occurs... sometimes I anticipate it sometimes I wait. My hit on either is 50% so neither has an advantage statistically - however, in terms of emotion and flexibility, allowing me to do either provides me freedom of time. Currently it's my money management via trade management that I am working on.... cutting that losing trade at a certain level or suffer the drawdown.

Bollinger Band
The Daily BB is set to 20 moving average. The current BB Mid is 11220 which is right on Daily open. As long as price stays above this MA, then to me the Daily intraday trend is up. This means that is my opening level for the day and I look hourly to see if prices are opening above it and trending. The reason this is important right now is because price has closed above Bollinger Band creating a top and the next sequence must be a bottom which can only occur if price closes below the Mid MA line. If it doesn't then there is a higher probability that the previous high will be retested. Hence my bias long for today.

Other
The Awesome and MACD are giving opposite signals so I am not changing or adding anything with these.


I currently have a Long on EURUSD @ 11535 which is underwater. I will be adding to this later.
I took a long on EURNZD this morning @ 17676 that I might close now +100
I have a short on Gold @ 1126

Closed my EN but the price got the better of me, closed out at +80 each.
Took a scalp short on the EN @ 17758, targeting short term 17656

The current 4H candle is not looking good for my Long position. As it stands, the current 4H bar is on high volume and lower MACD implying quite strongly that it is about to go into mean reversion which is at 11220. 40 pip difference.

Am thinking that I will close my mistake and take this loss on the long sooner. Am in two minds on shorting it.... wait for NYC or scalp short.... not sure of this second part but will close the long now for -270

Hi vlady,

thanks for your opinions.

i hope you are okey.

my last mesage's plan works for now.

i caught euro weakness vs chf. i am away e-u till nfp. i think e-u will be 1.1209 at nfp release time. market will decide direction.

i drink my cofee and think TP level of EUR-CHF position

Today i am waiting these ones

Hello Folks,

I have pretty much zero time to update this blog at present because of a variety of projects outside of FX. One of them is trading related - I am learning Options -- Finally after years of procrastination. I've got a great mentor for that. Got other projects not trade related that are time driven so hard to maintain the logging of trades and opinions and charts.

EU has been a bitch and I made a couple of bad trades between my last post. The only saving grace has been some good trades I've done on GBP currency, such as GN and GU. Right now, I've got a short on EU and two longs on GBP. Was going to long AUD but was too late and too distracted to get them in.

I've got an Option paper trade on the SPY. Bought a PUT for Oct expiry and it's way in the money now. So if that's an indicator that the SP500 will lower, could that be that USD should go higher or is that correlation going to invert? Dunno... interesting times now that volatility has crept back in.

See y'all soon.

Hello Old Journal.... I'm happy to say, I've not missed you that much!

Trading has been good without all the FF distraction.
And there IS life outside of FF.

But still.... I'm glad you're here. I can watch silently and feel the retail pulse and newbie discourse - I was once there too.

Best of luck and fortune to everyone.

I'm long on AUDNZD from 11060.
I've longed it twice this week.

I'm short on EURJPY a few times, but currently flat. Missed Asian high by just 2 pips. Oh well.
Edit: Just shorted it.

Closed EY -11, opened long EU