Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

thank you Twelle, possible, this moment thats are the areas I'm considering

closed the two left +80(40*2)

Total this trade +145

some shorts

closed four, +130, one remains with stop profit.

Enough for me this week, have a nice weekend

Nice trades, nice week

or will be - broken 5 wave EURO and DAX or new lows on the DAX and new highs for EUR

Dax is looking very promising for a bullish start to next week. We've found support on the Daily 76.4% fib level anchored from the low on July 8th and we look set to regain some of the ground lost last week. My weekly view as to high how we'll go is taken from the H4 chart, and by the look of this I think we can easily reach 11,320 - 430 by the week's end. Coming down to a smaller TF, I think 11,250 on the H1 chart is possible for monday/Tuesday, that's if we can get through the 30m 200ema @ 147 on Monday. All in all, I really nice bullish set up to start the week as it stands today, though things can look very different come Monday morning if we get a big move overnight on Sunday, though with no news scheduled to move the markets this is unlikely. Alternatively, we could still get a strong counter move down on Monday morning to a level where the bulls will pile in, something that often happens on the Dax. Either way, I'll be looking to buy on Monday.

My view is similar, the DAX is now in a position to reverse up on Monday, the nest date to watch for a turn is the 23.8.2015 followed by the 1.9.2015 then the 16.9.2015

As the times are approached I will give price levels to watch. My overall analysis of the DAX is that the top you can see on the left hand side of your chart is a final top that will not be exceeded for the next couple of years. If I am incorrect and a second attempt is made at a top, then the latest date for this would be the 13th September.

I am looking for a push up to the 1.9.2015 to around the 12500 area then a strong decline.

After reviewing the corporate earnings for most companies on the Dax this Quarter, as expected almost nearly all companies reported higher revenues due to the weaker EUR (in comparison to Q2 in 2014), however, only half of them had recorded higher Net Income (or EBIT/EBITDA). This is typical of firms during an expansion phase as they often tend to hire more and spend more (higher expenses).

My latest calculation of the Average PE ratio for the Dax is 15.20 (@ 11,000pts); which is smack bang in the fair value range on fundamentals, which IMO fair value can range from an Avg PE ratio of 14.00 (10,135pts) to 17.00 (12,333pts).

So as you can see the fair value range for the Dax is quite wide from the perspective of points.

Personally, I don't see the Dax breaking 12,000pts in the near term unless the EURUSD drops below 1.06; and I'm really doubting that the US will hike rates in coming months, which means that the EURUSD will likely stay in the 1.09 to 1.14 range, limiting the upside to the Dax. Last week we saw the impact on the Dax due to the currency devaluation in China; the Dax is one of the few Indices that is really affected by the value of the native currency (EUR).

I see upside early this week as the third bailout for Greece is essentially complete and the 4H chart looks like a bullish "W" shape pattern forming; if we can break the 20sma on 4H (11,071pts) then we may see some further gains, however, I think the 200sma on 4H may prove to be a major hurdle (11,323pts).

If the US Fed hike rates next month, expect some de-risking and a drop in US Equities, which is likely to have spill over effects across other Equities markets in the short term.

Also to note, US Corporate earnings for Q2 2015 have largely met expectations, but they have not really set the world on fire, and it is a sign that this market is topping out in the interim term: https://www.marketgrader.com/MGMainW...jsp?type=SP500

One last major prediction - if Trump becomes President of the USA next year (A BIG IF BTW); I will short the USD to the hills, as he has made it quite clear he wants manufacturing back in the US (so I expect a big devaluation in the USD)!

Good weekend Updates from you all, great information and outlooks on levels.
August the DAX is 200 points below the open, will this be a positive month close?
July the DAX closed up about 350points.
June the DAX closed down 600 points

DAX Down 1400 points from the High and 1000 points up from untested support down at 10000 or lower at the 9800 - 9600 range

I agree with the PE value of 11,000 points- on weekly Ichimoku chart - fair value level is 11042

A decisive break below 11020 that then can not be quickly reclaimed, will not be a great sign next week.

I am watching the Euro very closely and further reaction to positive news on Greece. if the IMF come on board and finalise the support for the deal, could see Euro Break higher and that I assume would be negative DAX. I took a view that the DAX would not break back under 11000 last week and cost me 160 points on 2 trades. so I am not going to take any more views and just trade price action until the real market makers / traders come back from Holidays in the 2nd / 3rd week of September then we will see the market make up it's mind about US rate decision for the rest of the year. and we get some more draghi and yellen dot plot. there could then be a significant down wave into the end of 2015.

I have traded several summers where the whole market has gone sideways and at the end of the summer break, to be exactly where it started and all the traders chopped to pieces range bound over the summer. so be careful out there 3-4weeks to go.

03-AUG - low - 11242 UP - 430 Points over 3.5 trading days
06-AUG - High 11672 - Down - 783 Points over 6 days
12 Aug Low - 10889 - Up 150 points so far 3 trading days. Not very bullish.

I have resistance Levels above 11140 - 11283 - 11419 - 11569 - interesting that they are all about points apart. Looking for a day with a morning retrace and bullish reversal for 200 point upside would be great.

Good Trading!

Hi Cat, Hurst, Pari and AtraderFX - thanks for all your views - Im somewhat cynical - when the market looks like its bullish and I agree wholeheartedly with you all - however i do wonder if that means there is a MM bear ready to take a dump on my head lol

Good evening,

for me DAX looks very bearish..any upside so far was sold ..but all that again and again Greece can be unpredictable.
But I will short from morning, unless I see big jump this night in US equities.

For me is DAX in this Way..


DAX – Bearish, maybe we may go UP to 11200.0,but my targets are 10860, 10705.0 and 10670.0

Agree with you all, could be downwards, watching the Euro for evidence of pressure on DAX.... I will tread carefully until I see some solid bullish candles.
I would be pleased to see a buy in the 10300 - 500 zone... I will try some shorts off the resistance levels.
certainly Fridays action was not very bullish...

I am primarily a long side trader... - I can be patient for a bullish reversal.

I might just clarify from my long post above, I think we may get some early gains this week (although given that the China stock market is down again is now causing me some doubt), but overall I have a bearish sentiment, perhaps we may touch the 200sma on 4H (11,323) and then back down until we get to September (after European summer) when we may get some buying activity back...

Morning all! Bull bias I posted Saturday for today on hold artm. I've got a capping MA which has been pulled over the price on my 15m/30m time frames overnight, but the patterns beneath the price are the same, so I'm waiting for things to look clearer, which means for me the open can take this either way so I wouldn't like to call it. However, H4 is still showing me to expect gains during the early part of this week up to perhaps 300.

Longer term, things are shaping up for me, for a sizeable fall - the Daily and Weekly chart both show this, but obviously with the price range bound at the moment, this will probably not happen until September. I'm looking at 10,000, maybe 9,000 for this when it happens.

ps - I'm watching the fib levels on the downside, especially the 61.8% and 76.45 at 10,976 and 950 respectively. A break below these, and certainly below friday's low, would be bearish, but if we get to these levels, I expect buyers to come in. We'll see.

morning all, late on market but i will try some shorts

nice quick move, close three +81 (27*3)

GOOD START to the week LS

Thank you Twellve!!

Timeframe 1 hour and 4 hour looks like possible short also.