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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #1,681
  • Aug 6, 2015 8:35am Aug 6, 2015 8:35am
Quoting eborn
We might see some support at 44.00, but then again... this thing keeps going and going...
towards the bottomless pit
  • #1,682
  • Aug 6, 2015 10:30am Aug 6, 2015 10:30am
Quoting Mysterical
{quote} towards the bottomless pit
It's not bottomless at all, according to my calculations crude will not start to go for free any time soon
  • #1,683
  • Aug 6, 2015 10:39am Aug 6, 2015 10:39am
Quoting atom3
{quote} It's not bottomless at all, according to my calculations crude will not start to go for free any time soon
I'm with you atom, we r going to see lower prices for years ahead..., unless something happened...
  • #1,684
  • Aug 6, 2015 10:51am Aug 6, 2015 10:51am
That's what I call a pin on h1
  • #1,685
  • Aug 6, 2015 11:22am Aug 6, 2015 11:22am
Quoting medvic
{quote} I'm with you atom, we r going to see lower prices for years ahead..., unless something happened...
that's not what Atom wrote...
regards

If Senate approves Iran nuke deal anticipate crude testing 42 even 40
Iran can pump additional 3-6million a day flooding already oversupplied market.If republicans kill it crude will get some relief.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,686
  • Aug 6, 2015 7:06pm Aug 6, 2015 7:06pm
People, the industry has changed. The point in which fracking and drilling companies are making money has lowered due to new refracking technology, strong us dollar and the vast reserves of iran and alberta oil sands region in canada (which most people forget about).

The previous years, crude has bounced between 80-120 on average. 30-50 could be the new 80-120 range for a long time.
Look at the Natural Gas industry. Look how much supply has knocked down prices....from over 14$/mbtu to under $3/mbtu.

If you see this time as a point of entry into energy companies in the stock market you are falling into a trap that you may have to hold onto for 10+ years to get your money back at best.

Crude will hit below $40/barrel. Crude will go to the lower 30's. From there its all the spill out of our corrupt political system in usa
  • #1,687
  • Edited 7:47pm Aug 6, 2015 7:30pm | Edited 7:47pm
Cost of production shows how much money was being made in the oil business being funded by most citizens. That will change now with huge savings to consumers over the long-term if oil stays at lower levels.
With global daily oil consumption @ 94 million barrels a day, that saves buyers $4.7 billion dollars every day with oil down from $100 to $50. Much of that will filter down to the end user, mostly gasoline for vehicles. Big savings when much of the world needs it.

With oil @ $50 only .2% of production is unprofitable.
With oil @ $45 only .4% of production is unprofitable.
With oil @ $40 only 1.6% of production is unprofitable.
NO REASON FOR OIL @ $100/BARREL.

Saudi Arabia just produced a record output during the month of June even with prices this low so they'll just pump more to make up for some of the lost revenue from higher prices. More pain for the higher cost producers until they go out of business.
  • #1,688
  • Aug 6, 2015 10:33pm Aug 6, 2015 10:33pm
Quoting srt
Cost of production shows how much money was being made in the oil business being funded by most citizens. That will change now with huge savings to consumers over the long-term if oil stays at lower levels. With global daily oil consumption @ 94 million barrels a day, that saves buyers $4.7 billion dollars every day with oil down from $100 to $50. Much of that will filter down to the end user, mostly gasoline for vehicles. Big savings when much of the world needs it. With oil @ $50 only .2% of production is unprofitable. With oil @ $45 only .4%...
34$ is the lowest possible price, well unless a meteorite strikes earth and wipes forex
  • #1,689
  • Aug 7, 2015 12:08am Aug 7, 2015 12:08am
Someone wants this puppy at $45...
  • #1,690
  • Aug 7, 2015 1:25am Aug 7, 2015 1:25am
Quoting srt
Cost of production shows how much money was being made in the oil business being funded by most citizens. That will change now with huge savings to consumers over the long-term if oil stays at lower levels. With global daily oil consumption @ 94 million barrels a day, that saves buyers $4.7 billion dollars every day with oil down from $100 to $50. Much of that will filter down to the end user, mostly gasoline for vehicles. Big savings when much of the world needs it. With oil @ $50 only .2% of production is unprofitable. With oil @ $45 only .4%...
Is there an estimate for the life expectancy of the Saudi oil fields, do you know?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,691
  • Edited 1:50am Aug 7, 2015 1:30am | Edited 1:50am
Quoting atom3
{quote} 34$ is the lowest possible price, well unless a meteorite strikes earth and wipes forex
The lowest (conceivable) price I have seen so far is $5 plus shipping. Premier Oil published $20 as their break-even price.

$5 (not from Premier Oil) being the cost to raise the oil to the well-head storage.
Obviously a bit has to go on to pay for lunch and the maintenance of the equipment.

There is probably not enough capacity at that price to meet 94 million bpd, so the actual minimum will be greater.

edit: BTW the earth had a near miss from a large asteroid in the past 12 months, iirc. Something big enough to be measured in kilometres passed inside the geostationary orbit distance.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,692
  • Aug 7, 2015 1:38am Aug 7, 2015 1:38am
Quoting srt
Cost of production shows how much money was being made in the oil business being funded by most citizens. That will change now with huge savings to consumers over the long-term if oil stays at lower levels. With global daily oil consumption @ 94 million barrels a day, that saves buyers $4.7 billion dollars every day with oil down from $100 to $50. Much of that will filter down to the end user, mostly gasoline for vehicles. Big savings when much of the world needs it. With oil @ $50 only .2% of production is unprofitable. With oil @ $45 only .4%...
You mentioned a crucial matter namely savings to consumers.

This is very important to pay attention to because when consumers save money through cheaper gas prices, they tend to give it out elsewhere. In return this means more items need to be produced to fill the consumer demand. More production leads to more usage of oil for transportaion, heating, production process, etc. But this is not something you can observe over night.

Oil prices were highest around 2008 and then it dropped slowly up to this point in 2015. Between 2008 and 2013 people consumed less, products were more expensive and in return currencies like the dollar became weak. Now that prices of oil are low, people have extra cash in their hand and they will start consuming more.

In my anaylsis oil prices will remain low for the next 4-5 years and then gradually rise again to complete this cycle because when people consume more, more needs to be produced thus more oil is used and more usage of oil means higher oil prices.
  • #1,693
  • Aug 7, 2015 5:20am Aug 7, 2015 5:20am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Is there an estimate for the life expectancy of the Saudi oil fields, do you know?
I don't know estimated life expectancy but not running empty anytime soon. When that time comes there'll probably be plenty other discoveries to replace the loss. Iran might be coming back on the market soon so even more oil added to the glut already out there.
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  • #1,694
  • Aug 7, 2015 5:27am Aug 7, 2015 5:27am
Venezuela has 298 billion barrels of proven resources !!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,695
  • Aug 7, 2015 7:50am Aug 7, 2015 7:50am
The "genius" who coined the term Peak Oil should have his genius status taken away.

But that won't stop the next "genius" from making a similar prediction in the future.
  • #1,696
  • Aug 7, 2015 9:00am Aug 7, 2015 9:00am
Quoting SunTrader
The "genius" who coined the term Peak Oil should have his genius status taken away. But that won't stop the next "genius" from making a similar prediction in the future.
No genius can predict what the future may bring us, those who came up with that term didn't came up with the possibility that new technologies might bring out more oil
  • #1,697
  • Aug 7, 2015 11:19am Aug 7, 2015 11:19am
Im Buying from 46.50. can we see them coming back to 46ish? any thoughts?
  • #1,698
  • Edited 1:58pm Aug 7, 2015 1:34pm | Edited 1:58pm
Quoting gstock
Im Buying from 46.50. can we see them coming back to 46ish? any thoughts?
Mmm that will be anyone's guess weather it will go back, actually it will eventually because price won't stay below 50$ forever it's question of when and how low it will go before it does come back, but you traded against the trend i guess you bought it when you saw that -4m barrels inventory on wednesday right ? Anyway personally a waiting order of mine got filled right at the bottom of what price reached i.e. i bought little crude at 44.02$ i expect atleast some sort of a correction here of 1$ being a major support area but we will see next week
  • #1,699
  • Aug 8, 2015 1:38am Aug 8, 2015 1:38am
I really thought that the yearly low from January would of been brokey yesterday. Only a few cents more then off to next support level. Maybe markets will open with a gap on Sunday night
  • #1,700
  • Aug 8, 2015 11:39am Aug 8, 2015 11:39am
Oil dive also is consequence of strong dollar.
Should Yellen decide NOT to raise interest rates in Sept.Anticipate USD decline and Oil and Gold bounce.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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