Let's Trade Options | Page 473 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

BELLA SYSTEM. Let's try it, let's improve it! 118 replies

Let's Trade The News V 0.4 ! 479 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Let's Trade The News! 46 replies

Let a trade develop? 17 replies

Attachments: Let's Trade Options
Exit Attachments

Let's Trade Options

  • #9,441
  • Jul 14, 2015 8:51am Jul 14, 2015 8:51am
Quoting The Fool
... well not looking too good, what I get for being impatient...
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Patience ain't my strong suit either ... .
What is patience?
Ah, I know -> the thing I don't have, right...

Anyways... the road from VIX @ $20 to the VIX at $13 is a very short one. Juice is out from the options... and here we go again. Slowly grinding up, BTFD... just any 0.5 point dip, just buy the mofo. Yep.. that was that scary 4% correction. You can't kill Jason, nobody can. But, lets be more objective -> market fell on some shit, and got up on another shit. Nothing more. We got some practice time for higher vol then usual, and that is it -> "nothing to see here, move on..." Never short a dull tape.

Add-on :
/where th f... is puking smiley?/
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,442
  • Jul 14, 2015 10:00am Jul 14, 2015 10:00am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} {quote} What is patience? Ah, I know -> the thing I don't have, right... Anyways... the road from VIX @ $20 to the VIX at $13 is a very short one. Juice is out from the options... and here we go again. Slowly grinding up, BTFD... just any 0.5 point dip, just buy the mofo. Yep.. that was that scary 4% correction. You can't kill Jason, nobody can. But, lets be more objective -> market fell on some shit, and got up on another shit. Nothing more. We got some practice time for higher vol then usual, and that is it -> "nothing to see here, move...
yes, we all get excited by the creeping up vols and it is such a disappointment that no one will have the balls to vote no in the upcoming parliaments. this relief rally in S&P still looks contained to me, hopefully not much further than 2120.
  • #9,443
  • Jul 14, 2015 11:13am Jul 14, 2015 11:13am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Against my better judgment, also trying to put on a Aug 28 TLT 109.5/121.5 short strangle for 1.31 credit. IVR's still 69-ish there ... . Want to trap any volatility I can here while I wait out what the indices are going to do from here ... .
Got tired of watching for a fill on this one ... . With volatility bleeding out, that's probably a good thing ... . Got out of my last TLT strangle for 50% max profit, leaving me in >50% cash -- plenty of dry powder for another uptick in volatility should it present itself. Looked at putting on a 45 DTE IC, but there are no strikes below 108 for my long put leg (I want to place the short put at 109.5; the long put 3-4 strikes below that). TLT's beginning to look like another bread and butter mechanical trade on top of the indices mechanicals -- been somewhat productive the last couple of months ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,444
  • Jul 14, 2015 11:15am Jul 14, 2015 11:15am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Got tired of watching for a fill on this one ... . With volatility bleeding out, that's probably a good thing ... . Got out of my last TLT strangle for 50% max profit, leaving me in >50% cash -- plenty of dry powder for another uptick in volatility should it present itself. Looked at putting on a 45 DTE IC, but there are no strikes below 108 for my long put leg (I want to place the short put at 109.5; the long put 3-4 strikes below that). TLT's beginning to look like another bread and butter mechanical trade on top of the indices mechanicals...
Kind of surprised that TLT hasn't dropped more in light of the uptick in the indices ... . Perhaps we're not in a total risk off environment yet ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,445
  • Jul 14, 2015 1:09pm Jul 14, 2015 1:09pm
I may be my own worst enemy ... . Only time will tell ... . Added a 215/219 SPY short call vert (Aug 28 expiry) for 1.06 credit right before the close.

Me personally, I don't think this up move has much juice in it ... . Not much volume behind it ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,446
  • Jul 14, 2015 1:10pm Jul 14, 2015 1:10pm
Quoting darimik
{quote} yes, we all get excited by the creeping up vols and it is such a disappointment that no one will have the balls to vote no in the upcoming parliaments. this relief rally in S&P still looks contained to me, hopefully not much further than 2120.
Fingers doubly crossed ... . My lowest call strike is at 212 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,447
  • Jul 15, 2015 9:14am Jul 15, 2015 9:14am
Quoting darimik
... this relief rally in S&P still looks contained to me, hopefully not much further than 2120.
I think the same... maybe some attack to previous ATH. New earnings season just begun, so that is the thing to watch. On the other hand... look at AMZN and GOOGL daily charts, what an up move with multiple gaps up. Big stocks like FB, EBAY, NFLX, SBUX, AMZN, on new ATHs.

But, as @ZS noted, light volume again. Market AGAIN runs up with really light volume. These areas where you go fast on light volume -> you go down even faster.

Quoting ZebraSquirl
I may be my own worst enemy ... . Only time will tell ... . Added a 215/219 SPY short call vert (Aug 28 expiry) for 1.06 credit right before the close. Me personally, I don't think this up move has much juice in it ... . Not much volume behind it ... .
Still, what would be a catalyst for anything more than 4-5% so called correction? I mean in ZIRP environment...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,448
  • Jul 15, 2015 10:04am Jul 15, 2015 10:04am
Market looks exhausted... Greek vote or not -> does it really matter? We will find out soon, but on TA alone, this looks shortable.
/NQ already visited resistance area, anything above 4530 up to ATH is resistance IMO.
/ES -> I do my TA on SPX charts... Well, it has another 8-10 points to first good level of resistance.

Dunno what is the idea for the final hours of this day, but since there were no firecrackers on Yellen (half-full punchbowl?) -> could we see SOME level of f...ng profit-taking after 4 green days? Sounds plausible.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,449
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:41am Jul 15, 2015 11:41am
Quoting StrayDog
Dunno what is the idea for the final hours of this day, but since there were no firecrackers on Yellen (half-full punchbowl?) -> could we see SOME level of f...ng profit-taking after 4 green days? Sounds plausible.
I am hanging on to dangerous Jul SPY short calls, have been having issues with web access, should be worked out soon. Fingers crossed for another last gasp in the Greek drama.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,450
  • Jul 15, 2015 12:04pm Jul 15, 2015 12:04pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am hanging on to dangerous Jul SPY short calls, have been having issues with web access, should be worked out soon. Fingers crossed for another last gasp in the Greek drama.
Hi TF...

Clashes in Athens pushed market lower... This market almost every time wants EXCUSE to fall from resistance levels.
Anyways, took 20 points on NQ CFDs (4540 -> 4520), and after a multiple hours of holding DAX CFDs short, took something there also.
Almost my 3 day scalping goal, so nice day today, after a really f...ng frustrating string of losses.

Maybe you can still make money on shorting /NQ? Nah, that is just isolated event... just buy the dip, oh buy the dip...
Waiting for the BTFD crowd to just buy this juicy lil' dip, ah so delicious...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,451
  • Jul 15, 2015 3:44pm Jul 15, 2015 3:44pm
Back to sitting on my hands ... . Volatility in all the indices (SPY/DIA/IWM/QQQ) has dried up such that they're all below 35 IVR (6-mo. Dough). Got enough to keep me engaged between now and Aug 28th weeklies with various index IC's and short call spreads, a little bit of FXE (IC's), some TLT (IC's), and GLD (short put verts; which ain't doin' shit). I put on a TLT IC today (which filled 22 seconds after market open), trying to catch the last gasp of suitable IVR in something that isn't an earnings play ... .

That TLT hasn't moved lower in spite of SPY's three days of up movement (Friday, Monday, Tuesday; today looks like a spinning top, and it's red) may be saying a little bit of something ... . That being said, the market sure isn't hedging any potential SPY down move with VXX or UVXY, that's for sure (at least not yet).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,452
  • Jul 15, 2015 4:57pm Jul 15, 2015 4:57pm
The one thing I'm considering is UVXY short put verts here at something less than 30 DTE; VXX short put verticals don't have enough juice in them ... . Need some long delta here and we're at quite significant lows. Naturally, I may wake up and feel entirely differently when I look at what VIX did in the overnight ... . 12.0 is, like, right there .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,453
  • Jul 16, 2015 12:37am Jul 16, 2015 12:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well not looking too good, what I get for being impatient...typical...I did well, waited for days and weeks, caved at the end when I needed to wait just another couple days....now likely gonna lose money on tight Jul short SPY calls at $210 & $211, looking out at Aug $216/$218, maybe higher....July earnings could see new ath's in the indices....feeling stoopid that I couldn't wait a couple days more....
superdove JY & Greek relief, strong earnings....US equities should test the year's highs again....TF gonna eat a yard o shit unless we get some selling into opex, not seeing it....watching UST's, does anybody believe the Yellen Fed will ever hike?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,454
  • Jul 16, 2015 8:34am Jul 16, 2015 8:34am
/NQ breached ATH... the indices leader currently, since ES, DJIA and RUT are lagging.
Why bother trading... just wait for market to dip at least 3%, then buy on whatever level, put GTC closing order in vicinity of ATH and go to sleep.
Rinse and repat.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,455
  • Jul 16, 2015 3:16pm Jul 16, 2015 3:16pm
Ugh. I hate coming home to a small turd pile in my portfolio ... . A few short call vert sides of index iron condors have been breached (the ones where I got a bit aggressive). There is still time and still some premium left on the put side, so I will let them ride until the last minute (3-4 days before expiry) and/or peel off put sides if they're at or near worthless and then roll the short call vert sides out for duration and credit if I have to and then leg into a full IC thereafter. The earliest expiry I've got on now is two weeks' out; a lot of butter could pass through the churn between now and then.

It's not all bad; one of my TLT IC's is at >50% max profit; I'll close it out in the a.m. I peeled off the call side of another FXE iron condor IC this a.m. (it was nearly worthless), leaving me with the July 31st 107/102 short put side (which is now in call). I fully anticipate having to roll that down and out ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,456
  • Jul 17, 2015 10:13am Jul 17, 2015 10:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am hanging on to dangerous Jul SPY short calls, have been having issues with web access, should be worked out soon. Fingers crossed for another last gasp in the Greek drama.
out of all call legs yesterday, IC's all lost money, way too much. Another sucker caught in a V-bottom bear trap....just more 3 steps forward/2 steps back for TF. Waiting to see if S&P rallies further into earnings season. Did some small trades today, a TLT Aug1/Aug2 $114 put calendar for 12c debit, a FXI Aug $46/$46.5 call long vert for 7c debit.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,457
  • Jul 17, 2015 11:08am Jul 17, 2015 11:08am
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chines...150612708.html

See FCX Aug/Sep $18 calls calendar @ 15c; $19 calendar @ 8c.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,458
  • Jul 17, 2015 12:35pm Jul 17, 2015 12:35pm
I wanted to shoot that SPY $212.50 call for the weekly close, but was ....looks like it might get there.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,459
  • Jul 17, 2015 12:38pm Jul 17, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting The Fool
I wanted to shoot that SPY $212.50 call for the weekly close, but was ....looks like it might get there.
been looking at SPY Aug bear call verts, $217/$219 or up - but I will wait, more upside likely next week. After having my nuts shot off I am naturally slow on the draw....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,460
  • Jul 17, 2015 12:41pm Jul 17, 2015 12:41pm
No profit taking whatsoever, after all week of up moves... 20 min to go... Ah that GOOGL gap up. /NQ is on fire. DJIA and RUT lagging... What waits for us next week I wonder.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
1 trader viewing now