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Discovering An Edge

  • #601
  • Jul 13, 2015 3:09am Jul 13, 2015 3:09am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} GBPAUD: Bugger, keep getting stopped out -30. Re-entered @ 20902.9, SL-50, target 20986 Edit 1: SL to BE Edit 2: SL to 20941
GBPAUD: Stopped out +76
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #602
  • Jul 13, 2015 3:12am Jul 13, 2015 3:12am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} GBPJPY: Long Stopped out +0
GBPJPY:
Re-entered after SL.
Long @ 19229.7, target remains 19427
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #603
  • Jul 13, 2015 3:46am Jul 13, 2015 3:46am
L GN 2.3220
  • #604
  • Jul 13, 2015 4:18am Jul 13, 2015 4:18am
Short ncad .8518
  • #605
  • Jul 13, 2015 5:28am Jul 13, 2015 5:28am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} GBPJPY: Re-entered after SL. Long @ 19229.7, target remains 19427
GBPJPY:
Eagerness of expectation lead me to re-entering after impulse.
Positions currently underwater, but risk is managed against expected result - although not ideal.

In terms of technical structure, I entered when the ZZBB signal called for a downtrend on the 5M. The 15M should have prevented my entry, or at least given the closeness to Bollinger Mid, warned me off the unneccessary drawdown of going long until the ZZBB confirms a close outside of BB signalling the next move up.

Currently, one position is hedged against EURUSD but 5M is showing a reversal now coinciding with US open.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #606
  • Jul 13, 2015 5:32am Jul 13, 2015 5:32am
Currently eyeing potential Long position on the USDJPY and USDCAD.
GBPAUD has disappointed as it currently ranges through.

I've not checked the MADASH boards as yet, but I will hold position until after US have kicked in their orders.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #607
  • Jul 13, 2015 6:38am Jul 13, 2015 6:38am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} EURUSD: Triggered: Short Stop moved to 11073 (2 pips below bar low) and it probably wasn't a good idea. LOL. I will have to fade this or take the hit at SL -20, either way, it's a trading cost.
EURUSD:Added to shorts @ 11053All stops now to BE, gains currently hedging GBPJPY positions 1:1
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #608
  • Jul 13, 2015 6:43am Jul 13, 2015 6:43am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} The histogram here shows and re-confirms, errrr again, that divergence is a VERY strong basis for developing an edge. Divergence is the stretch of an elastic band from its normal or "average" behaviour. It's measurement can therefore provide a means for entering probabilistic trades rather than expectancy based trades. There is a further edge I can see being developed from this but it's more advanced and is not required in order to start earning serious pips. Eg, there is a relationship to be extracted from pip range that triggers the move...
I do not recall posting in this thread. Why would you quote me here?

There is no divergence in the histogram - it would not make sense, IMHO. The histogram is pips from open. The further price moves away from the open, the higher/lower the bars. Divergence would be a higher price making a lower reading or a lower price making a higher reading. Is that possible here?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tooslow1.png Size: 23 KB


Chart posted for your convenience.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #609
  • Jul 13, 2015 7:07am Jul 13, 2015 7:07am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} I do not recall posting in this thread. Why would you quote me here? There is no divergence in the histogram - it would not make sense, IMHO. The histogram is pips from open. The further price moves away from the open, the higher/lower the bars. Divergence would be a higher price making a lower reading or a lower price making a higher reading. Is that possible here? {image} Chart posted for your convenience.
Hi TooSlow,

Apologies for stealing your post - no malice intended, actually it was the opposite. I liked the example and it prompted an idea/opinion which I wanted recorded in my journal. Not meant to be a commentary or criticism on your analysis per se.

But the idea to me is that divergence from open, is pictorial representation of the histogram. But obviously not in a statistical sense that you're referring to. Instead... if you lined up all the bars in a straight line with Open as Zero, then the red vs green is in fact the divergence from the open. The hypothesis I would develop from that would be that the divergence would become more positive closer to a change in trend if the overall trend was bearish.... and converse for a bull bias. This is untested - but the idea was there hence why I recorded it in my journal.

Apologies if this has caused confusion!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #610
  • Jul 13, 2015 7:49am Jul 13, 2015 7:49am
Apology accepted. There must be more than one definition of divergence.

This is my understanding of divergence:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tooslow1.png Size: 25 KB
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #611
  • Jul 13, 2015 8:11am Jul 13, 2015 8:11am
Quoting TooSlow
Apology accepted. There must be more than one definition of divergence. This is my understanding of divergence: {image}
I like this definition:
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/divergence
2. A departure from a norm; a deviation.

The divergence from a moving average is the same thing in my opinion. But in my case, I'm plotting that the open as my reference point is zero. Hence, the OH or OL difference is the divergence from zero. This essentially removes the nominal price value and just has quantity deviation from zero, positive or negative.

They're just ideas for now. I would need the help of some stats folk to help me prove my theory either way.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #612
  • Jul 13, 2015 8:12am Jul 13, 2015 8:12am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} EURUSD:Added to shorts @ 11053All stops now to BE, gains currently hedging GBPJPY positions 1:1
EURUSD:
Grrrr.. This one got stopped out just before the move down.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #613
  • Jul 13, 2015 8:22am Jul 13, 2015 8:22am
GBPAUD:
Well this biatch hit its target and I was off at lunch and then a bloody meeting. Grrr. 20986 was my target.
Next target is 26347 and there is no set up for that yet.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #614
  • Jul 13, 2015 11:20am Jul 13, 2015 11:20am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} EURUSD:Added to shorts @ 11053All stops now to BE, gains currently hedging GBPJPY positions 1:1
Closed for +157.4 pips
Total for the day +224.7

However, I have an underwater GBPJPY which I've decided to hold -203.
I broke the rules on this one, so totally my fault. But I will be trying to get out of the sandtrap - I've done it before, but it's never easy.

I will be looking for hedge trades tonight during Asian.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #615
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:42pm Jul 13, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Closed for +157.4 pips Total for the day +224.7 However, I have an underwater GBPJPY which I've decided to hold -203. I broke the rules on this one, so totally my fault. But I will be trying to get out of the sandtrap - I've done it before, but it's never easy. I will be looking for hedge trades tonight during Asian.

Congrats mate... I know you will come out of GJ...
  • #616
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:49pm Jul 13, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Closed for +157.4 pips Total for the day +224.7 However, I have an underwater GBPJPY which I've decided to hold -203. I broke the rules on this one, so totally my fault. But I will be trying to get out of the sandtrap - I've done it before, but it's never easy. I will be looking for hedge trades tonight during Asian.
GJ will be contiuning North mate
  • #617
  • Jul 13, 2015 3:17pm Jul 13, 2015 3:17pm
Thanks for the encouragement guys! Really appreciate it!

Yep, I do think GJ is heading up. I will have to find a hedge against the drawdown.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #618
  • Jul 13, 2015 3:22pm Jul 13, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting vlady1974
FX Boards are showing BUY signals for GBPAUD which is a positive signal. Here's my projection from the 1H trendline break. However, the white horizontal line is a projection from an old Weekly TL which has been reached. When these projections are hit, price nearly always reverses. Hence why I am cautious. If the white line breaks, then the projection stands and I will go Long. {image}
Well here's one that got away: GBPAUD

Before:
Attachment

After:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD-1H.png Size: 187 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #619
  • Jul 14, 2015 1:50am Jul 14, 2015 1:50am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Closed for +157.4 pips Total for the day +224.7 However, I have an underwater GBPJPY which I've decided to hold -203. I broke the rules on this one, so totally my fault. But I will be trying to get out of the sandtrap - I've done it before, but it's never easy. I will be looking for hedge trades tonight during Asian.
sorry about the bad trade mate. I have been busy haven't really checked in on your trades. Don't know if you're long or short. Go is gonna do a retrace lower then Continue upwards. I'm sure you will get it in profit
  • #620
  • Jul 14, 2015 2:37am Jul 14, 2015 2:37am
Hi All,

Have been absolutely flat chat with home, work, commute, you name it.

In summary, Asian attempts to hedge or reduce were a bit of a disaster.
Tried to go long on GBPJPY but I did it in Franky open and got killed -75
Took a Long GBPCAD @ 19768.95 avg +70
Took a Long AUDNZD @ 11129.9 -13

Still holding GBPJPY. My aim is to score +125 pips at least which would cancel out half that position and close it.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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