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Let's Trade Options

  • #9,421
  • Jul 12, 2015 8:47pm Jul 12, 2015 8:47pm
my dream of a strong summer rally for wti was just that, I won't be surprised to see sub $45 by late August...between the Iranian new input to the supply glut and the strong USD, oil should be beat down further...shown is a Aug/Sep $15 puts calendar on USO @ 14c debit...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,422
  • Jul 12, 2015 9:02pm Jul 12, 2015 9:02pm
I check on time spreads P/L at least a couple times a week and then every day in the 1-2 weeks b4 expiry, because everything is changing. The TLT diagonal below I bought for 7c is worth 12c and I am looking for TLT to slide to $110 by Aug1 expiry, which would mean a nice payout for TF, I want 60c net. Need the Greece drama to be over, though, & arrest the safe haven flows to UST's, but I'd expect that is coming any day...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,423
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:14am Jul 13, 2015 12:14am
Quoting The Fool
put side time spreads are a better deal than the calls. HYG will keep sliding into a riskoff/rising rate horizon... {image}
Didn't think about working corporate bonds as a possible addition or alternative to working TLT/TBT ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,424
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:22am Jul 13, 2015 12:22am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Didn't think about working corporate bonds as a possible addition or alternative to working TLT/TBT ... .
look at the options trades on HYG in TDA Time & Sales - there is always decent volume in there
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,425
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:27am Jul 13, 2015 12:27am
Quoting The Fool
my dream of a strong summer rally for wti was just that, I won't be surprised to see sub $45 by late August...between the Iranian new input to the supply glut and the strong USD, oil should be beat down further...shown is a Aug/Sep $15 puts calendar on USO @ 14c debit... {image} {image}
Kind of looks like my hope for GLD ... . Thought there would be some Chinese flight into gold as the market started to melt down, and it appeared close to a low ... . Oh, well, still some time 'til expiry ... . USO just kind of slowly drove me nuts until I quit looking at it ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,426
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:30am Jul 13, 2015 12:30am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
USO just kind of slowly drove me nuts until I quit looking at it ... .
I heard that, USO leaves vm to be desired. Best to trade the /CL futes or options - I just can't do it in the IRA's....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,427
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:49am Jul 13, 2015 12:49am
Quoting StrayDog
SVXY has options but not so good.... VXX options are the best, UVXY options the worst. VIX options - hm, so-so
These VIX product options are becoming my go-to weekly (or end-weekly) trades - when I have enuf time to look them over....and when I see what I like. I don't like UVXY, either, but I will say it is worth looking at because there are sometimes instances of significant mispricing in the chains - I have showed these b4 - it's usually related to isolated larg(er) volumes at some strikes - so you can pick out some nice spreads sometimes - I will show next time I see some.

VXX I like to look for cheap strangles that coincide with some expected Friday outsized moves - NFP Fridays is one - wait til Thurs & get in $1 otm strangles for <$0.15 & hope for the best follow thru Friday...works sometimes.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,428
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:52am Jul 13, 2015 12:52am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
That being said, here is a fairly good, bread-and-butter, common sense play: {image} My personal preference would have been to put the short strikes out closer to 1 SD, which would have resulted in a smaller credit, but also more room for the trade to breathe. TLT, after all, has been a bit wild of late ... .
that Ryan Aug $114 put short leg on the IC will get whacked, I bet
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,429
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:55am Jul 13, 2015 12:55am
Quoting The Fool
re: a weekly UVXY trade, I might go super bull: the short put spreads for Friday expiry are a no-brainer with Greece hanging in the wind until next Monday. Something like Friday's $36/$34 puts for $0.25 credit, and next Friday's $51/$52 long calls or higher for small debit - something like $10 otm calls - trade will go on for a net credit and the Jul calls spread could pay 8 to 1 or better if the VIX explodes on a Grexit announcement....2c fill on the Jul calls is a tease, but we'll see what's there Wed. At any rate I will be waiting to see what...
woulda worked, was just too busy last week, looking forward to easier hours
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,430
  • Jul 13, 2015 2:00am Jul 13, 2015 2:00am
Greece is done, btfd & on to the next bfd...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,431
  • Edited 1:43pm Jul 13, 2015 12:55pm | Edited 1:43pm
Quoting StrayDog
Crude is on very important level right now, at $54... I can't imagine it won't bounce up from here. Hm... thinking about selling some far OTM September put (Aug 21 expiry). Addon: Sold /CL Sep 44 put for $0.25 CR ($250 credit).
I sold that put a week ago. Later I made a short strangle with /CL Sep 62 call, which I also sold for $0.25... That put was over $400 underwater when /CL were near $50. My initial entry point was based on TA only. /CL never bounced from $54. I was totally unaware of Iran talks (that shit pops out every once in a while), which are bearish for Oil... So I used the opportunity today to close that put for $0.27 and call for $0.22, for b/e and one thing less to worry. I will monitor situation and entry again, since there are plenty of juice in OTM /CL options. But you need to be very, very careful.

Add-on -> better choice was to close the put and let the call ride, but f**** it now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,432
  • Jul 13, 2015 5:22pm Jul 13, 2015 5:22pm
Quite a bit of volatility has bled out of the indices with DIA being the only one left above 35 (at the moment). Nevertheless, a SPY Aug 28th 216/220 short call vert is going for .72 cr (BE 216.72), and I'm only looking for >.50 cr on the verts ... . I'm thinking that BE is plenty of room to work with, so may try to get something like that filled tomorrow.

TLT's still at 70, but I'm not sure there will be enough juice in it to make it attractive for me unless I go short strangle (Aug 28 108.5/121.5; 1.26 credit; 76% POP). I still have one TLT strangle on (July 31 113.5/124) that's at 36% max profit ... . Not sure I want to have another one on if the short put side of the one I have on now is going to have to be rolled ... . With 18 DTE, you never know ... .

I naturally want to wait to see if this run up to 210 is just knee jerk horse shit ... . Magic eight ball says ... "Ask again later ... ".
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,433
  • Jul 13, 2015 6:12pm Jul 13, 2015 6:12pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . I naturally want to wait to see if this run up to 210 is just knee jerk horse shit ... . Magic eight ball says ... "Ask again later ... ".
well, I need a little more drama...just a little bit more, man, and then I swear I'm off it....need to see SPY back down off $210 and settle below for July expiry...gotta be a tweet coming my way soon....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,434
  • Jul 13, 2015 9:57pm Jul 13, 2015 9:57pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, I need a little more drama...just a little bit more, man, and then I swear I'm off it....need to see SPY back down off $210 and settle below for July expiry...gotta be a tweet coming my way soon....
I could also use a couple more little spasms myself ... . Just here and there.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,435
  • Jul 13, 2015 10:08pm Jul 13, 2015 10:08pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I could also use a couple more little spasms myself ... . Just here and there.
well not looking too good, what I get for being impatient...typical...I did well, waited for days and weeks, caved at the end when I needed to wait just another couple days....now likely gonna lose money on tight Jul short SPY calls at $210 & $211, looking out at Aug $216/$218, maybe higher....July earnings could see new ath's in the indices....feeling stoopid that I couldn't wait a couple days more....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,436
  • Jul 13, 2015 10:16pm Jul 13, 2015 10:16pm
I suppose we might see another hiccup from Athens, but idk....

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/tsipr...102944913.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,437
  • Jul 13, 2015 10:18pm Jul 13, 2015 10:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well not looking too good, what I get for being impatient...typical...I did well, waited for days and weeks, caved at the end when I needed to wait just another couple days....now likely gonna lose money on tight Jul short SPY calls at $210 & $211, looking out at Aug $216/$218, maybe higher....July earnings could see new ath's in the indices....feeling stoopid that I couldn't wait a couple days more....
Patience ain't my strong suit either ... . Can't believe that I'm going to be back worrying about the call side in short order ... . Yeesh.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,438
  • Edited 9:56am Jul 14, 2015 9:25am | Edited 9:56am
Went with the 216/220 Aug 28 Short Call Vert in SPY for .70 credit ... . Will add in short put verts to complete the IC later ... .

I wanted to go with DIA (slightly higher IVR), but short call verts Aug 28 expiry are currently unworkable ... . Strike prices above 185 aren't currently being offered.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,439
  • Jul 14, 2015 9:43am Jul 14, 2015 9:43am
Against my better judgment, also trying to put on a Aug 28 TLT 109.5/121.5 short strangle for 1.31 credit. IVR's still 69-ish there ... . Want to trap any volatility I can here while I wait out what the indices are going to do from here ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,440
  • Jul 14, 2015 9:56am Jul 14, 2015 9:56am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Against my better judgment, also trying to put on a Aug 28 TLT 109.5/121.5 short strangle for 1.31 credit. IVR's still 69-ish there ... . Want to trap any volatility I can here while I wait out what the indices are going to do from here ... .
But vol's bleeding quickly out of TLT, too ... . Quite frankly, can't believe it's flat/slightly up here (a few pennies) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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