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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #10,221
  • Jul 12, 2015 9:09am Jul 12, 2015 9:09am
Every dip will be fine to Long Dax. IMHO.
  • #10,222
  • Jul 12, 2015 10:07am Jul 12, 2015 10:07am
Quoting cat
{quote} I don't pay any attention to Sunday trading and I ignore gaps. The technicals say north, strongly, and so as far as I'm concerned, that's where we'll continue going. We may well gap down, but we'll climb back up after that.
Lower highs & lower lows.
At upper end of downtrend channel.
Which "technicals say north, strongly"??
**I have no positions, just curious what I'm missing.
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  • #10,223
  • Jul 12, 2015 10:10am Jul 12, 2015 10:10am
Quoting cat
{quote} Poppycock, to go short to where? look at the charts!! It would be difficult to find a worse point to go short.
Up at supply again. Why not short with a stop above supply zone. Better than shorting @ the bottom?
I have not positions. Just curious as to why such a bad location to go short?
Just different perspective from different trading styles.
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  • #10,224
  • Jul 12, 2015 10:42am Jul 12, 2015 10:42am
Quoting srt
{quote} Up at supply again. Why not short with a stop above supply zone. Better than shorting @ the bottom? I have not positions. Just curious as to why such a bad location to go short? Just different perspective from different trading styles. {image}
Hi srt. Firstly, although I have posted my observations today when the markets are closed, they are only observations based on what I see now. The price can indeed drop from here, and has done on Sunday trading. The Daily trendline will mean nothing if, as I expect, a deal is done to keep Greece in the eurozone. That's not saying that we won't go down if things go the other way, because although the momentum is with the bulls, we have the trendline as you show on your chart, plus we have the 76.4%, a massive fib number when combined with a trendline.

So let's just see what tomorrow brings, as the jury right now is out. Like you I have no open positions, and will get up early tomorrow morning and take stock of what the night has brought us Dax traders.
  • #10,225
  • Jul 12, 2015 10:49am Jul 12, 2015 10:49am
Quoting cat
{quote} Hi srt. Firstly, although I have posted my observations today when the markets are closed, they are only observations based on what I see now. The price can indeed drop from here, and has done on Sunday trading. The Daily trendline will mean nothing if, as I expect, a deal is done to keep Greece in the eurozone. That's not saying that we won't go down if things go the other way, because although the momentum is with the bulls, we have the trendline as you show on your chart, plus we have the 76.4%, a massive fib number when combined with...
  • #10,226
  • Jul 12, 2015 10:55am Jul 12, 2015 10:55am
hi

On the economic cycle where we are now I think the market will move in a side wide the coming months. The issue of Greece will certainly bring sudden changes in volatility but note that there is perhaps a major fire in China, where its market shares would be if the authorities had not intervened. This fire could affect the global economy.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...84#post8214484
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post8214481

and the shangai index( source: yahoo finance)

regards
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The only constant is change
  • #10,227
  • Jul 12, 2015 10:56am Jul 12, 2015 10:56am
Quoting srt
{quote} Which "technicals say north, strongly"?? **I have no positions, just curious what I'm missing. {image}
My charts are showing extremely strong bullish momentum. Diversion, the positioning of my MAs, and the momentum itself show me this. This does not mean there won't be a pullback, in fact we should have one based on technicals alone as we have risen a long way above the 30m/H1 200ema, but then I think we'll head higher. It would take a shock, ie, Greek exit, to turn this round completely.
  • #10,228
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:12pm Jul 12, 2015 12:12pm
The last leg up into sell zone showed increased pins on the up bars indicating selling pressure as it approaches sell zone.

a break above 17869 should see further movement up to next possible sell zones.

a short here has a good chance to returning to 17521
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  • #10,229
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:48pm Jul 12, 2015 11:48pm
Deal!! As if you needed telling
  • #10,230
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:02am Jul 13, 2015 12:02am
Quoting cat
{quote} Not buying it - figuratively speaking. There'll be no Grexit, the US is working hard behind the scenes on this as there is no way Greece will be allowed to fall into Russia's orbit which is what a Grexit will mean. You've got to look at the geopolitical implications of a Grexit, for they are much much bigger than anything else. A deal will be done and the Dax is on its way to 12,000 this coming week. Right or wrong, I'll be trading it anyway
It was never going to happen.
  • #10,231
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:26am Jul 13, 2015 12:26am
We've got the Daily 100sma not far above @ 11,462, which along with the trend line sent the price back down on 24th June, so this is a potential sticking point now as well. If it can break, I think we'll see 12,000 this week.
  • #10,232
  • Jul 13, 2015 1:08am Jul 13, 2015 1:08am
Quoting cat
We've got the Daily 100sma not far above @ 11,462, which along with the trend line sent the price back down on 24th June, so this is a potential sticking point now as well. If it can break, I think we'll see 12,000 this week.
waiting on the Greek parliament to pass the deal? ... i think it will... (i'm not even going to go there and debate if it should or not )
but yea, 12k easily...
  • #10,233
  • Jul 13, 2015 1:19am Jul 13, 2015 1:19am
Quoting Decu33
{quote} waiting on the Greek parliament to pass the deal? ... i think it will... (i'm not even going to go there and debate if it should or not ) but yea, 12k easily...
Yes I think we'll see caution now until the Parliament vote on wed, and I'm watching this Daily 100sma on the purely technical front as I think we might struggle to get above it now that the fireworks are over.
  • #10,234
  • Jul 13, 2015 1:36am Jul 13, 2015 1:36am
Poor Greeks! Give them a referendum so that they believe they have a voice in the negotiations, and them shaft them anyway with a deal that is even worse than the one the Tsipras government rejected initially. Parliament has yet to pass the new deal worth 84 Billion euros, and they may well reject it, but ultimately there is no way Greece will be allowed to exit the Euro even if they want to, the geopolitical implications for the EU and the US in particular are too great for that to happen. The Greek people will be locked into a cycle of debt and austerity for decades, and there is nothing, short of a full scale revolution, that they can do about it.
  • #10,235
  • Jul 13, 2015 1:40am Jul 13, 2015 1:40am
Quoting cat
Poor Greeks! Give them a referendum so that they believe they have a voice in the negotiations, and them shaft them anyway with a deal that is even worse than the one the Tsipras government rejected initially. Parliament has yet to pass the new deal worth 84 Billion euros, and they may well reject it, but ultimately there is no way Greece will be allowed to exit the Euro even if they want to, the geopolitical implications for the EU and the US in particular are too great for that to happen. The Greek people will be locked into a cycle of debt and...
YAP....
  • #10,236
  • Jul 13, 2015 2:00am Jul 13, 2015 2:00am
Quoting cat
Poor Greeks! Give them a referendum so that they believe they have a voice in the negotiations, and them shaft them anyway with a deal that is even worse than the one the Tsipras government rejected initially. Parliament has yet to pass the new deal worth 84 Billion euros, and they may well reject it, but ultimately there is no way Greece will be allowed to exit the Euro even if they want to, the geopolitical implications for the EU and the US in particular are too great for that to happen. The Greek people will be locked into a cycle of debt and...
I think there is a way around though. Putin promised to help Greece if it exits the Euro and that it would pay the country's debts. I wonder what Putin asked in return though.
  • #10,237
  • Jul 13, 2015 2:31am Jul 13, 2015 2:31am
Quoting cat
Poor Greeks! Give them a referendum so that they believe they have a voice in the negotiations, and them shaft them anyway with a deal that is even worse than the one the Tsipras government rejected initially. Parliament has yet to pass the new deal worth 84 Billion euros, and they may well reject it, but ultimately there is no way Greece will be allowed to exit the Euro even if they want to, the geopolitical implications for the EU and the US in particular are too great for that to happen. The Greek people will be locked into a cycle of debt and...
Sad but true...
  • #10,238
  • Jul 13, 2015 11:37pm Jul 13, 2015 11:37pm
Quoting cat
Poor Greeks! Give them a referendum so that they believe they have a voice in the negotiations, and them shaft them anyway with a deal that is even worse than the one the Tsipras government rejected initially. Parliament has yet to pass the new deal worth 84 Billion euros, and they may well reject it, but ultimately there is no way Greece will be allowed to exit the Euro even if they want to, the geopolitical implications for the EU and the US in particular are too great for that to happen. The Greek people will be locked into a cycle of debt and...
Absolutely..just ordinary people will pay price
  • #10,239
  • Jul 14, 2015 12:00am Jul 14, 2015 12:00am
morning, some longs
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The only constant is change
  • #10,240
  • Jul 14, 2015 12:32am Jul 14, 2015 12:32am
Quoting littspaniard
morning, some longs {image}
sl hit -120 (24*5)
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The only constant is change
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