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Discovering An Edge

  • #161
  • Jun 26, 2015 2:32am Jun 26, 2015 2:32am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} closed for 33
great mate
  • #162
  • Jun 26, 2015 4:43am Jun 26, 2015 4:43am
Quoting vlady1974
Long GBPAUD @ 20364 on break of downward sloping trendline.
This is coming up to target 20522

Edit: May pull the plug on sign of weakness.

Edit Edit: Closed +140
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #163
  • Jun 26, 2015 4:51am Jun 26, 2015 4:51am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} This is coming up to target 20522 Edit: May pull the plug on sign of weakness. Edit Edit: Closed +140
I'm a bit of chicken for not keeping it open. But it's Friday and almost lunch and work sucks. So I want my dosh!
Next GBPAUD target is 20709.6

Oh and look at that... as I type, 20521.6! Not complaining. LOL

I will wait for retrace, this will probably happen later today or next week.
An object in motion stays in motion....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPaud-1H.JPG Size: 165 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #164
  • Jun 26, 2015 4:58am Jun 26, 2015 4:58am
USDCAD and USDJPY longs still in play.

This is the view of the ambitious UC target 12535
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD-1D.JPG Size: 172 KB


UJ target at 12613
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY-1D.JPG Size: 158 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #165
  • Jun 26, 2015 6:12am Jun 26, 2015 6:12am
Quoting vlady1974
USDCAD and USDJPY longs still in play. This is the view of the ambitious UC target 12535 {image} UJ target at 12613 {image}
You go buddy. Youre killing it. My brians too tired. I backed out. Had to rest. I felt there will be pips waiting for me on monday. Refreshed now thoulg but still fell tired.
  • #166
  • Jun 26, 2015 6:14am Jun 26, 2015 6:14am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} You go buddy. Youre killing it. My brians too tired. I backed out. Had to rest. I felt there will be pips waiting for me on monday. Refreshed now thoulg but still fell tired.
That uj move looks like the squeeze or strong push i was talking about
  • #167
  • Jun 26, 2015 6:31am Jun 26, 2015 6:31am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} That uj move looks like the squeeze or strong push i was talking about
Indeed! Opportunities abound, so it's a good sign. The retrace will allow for entries later on. Monday will be perfect after EURO news... but I think it's being priced in now.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #168
  • Jun 26, 2015 6:40am Jun 26, 2015 6:40am
Just trying to decide whether to close all open trades for the weekend and just re-enter next week on any retrace.
I'm inclined to close. I don't really care about the transaction costs (ie. spread) if I'm in profit.

UCAD already retracing and going into mean reversion. Hmmm.... I'm gonna close.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #169
  • Jun 26, 2015 6:46am Jun 26, 2015 6:46am
Quoting vlady1974
Hmmm.... I'm gonna close.
Closed all for +139

Long term targets are still in effect.
UJ 12613
UC 12535

Will get back on on a signal from a reasonable retrace.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #170
  • Jun 26, 2015 7:25am Jun 26, 2015 7:25am
Quoting vlady1974
Just trying to decide whether to close all open trades for the weekend and just re-enter next week on any retrace. I'm inclined to close. I don't really care about the transaction costs (ie. spread) if I'm in profit.
I think you'll make the right decision vlady!
Nobody knows for sure how things will go down over the weekend and it's a risk you cannot measure properly.
Too many variables!

As you mentioned, what is the downside? Re-opening positions.
That is far better risk management than holding positions over the weekend with what we have coming.
Good weekend and nice trading mate!
Regards
  • #171
  • Jun 26, 2015 8:14am Jun 26, 2015 8:14am
Quoting skfx
{quote} I think you'll make the right decision vlady! Nobody knows for sure how things will go down over the weekend and it's a risk you cannot measure properly. Too many variables! As you mentioned, what is the downside? Re-opening positions. That is far better risk management than holding positions over the weekend with what we have coming. Good weekend and nice trading mate! Regards
I really appreciate this Sk! It definitely is the better form of risk management!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #172
  • Jun 28, 2015 10:29pm Jun 28, 2015 10:29pm
FX Board this morning (one of my new toys that I'm trying out). This is based on 50EMA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FX BOARD.png Size: 126 KB


Weak:
EUR - obviously
AUD

Strong:
JPY - obviously because of EUR drama
GBP
CAD - against AUD, NZD and EUR
USD - against AUD, EUR (obviously), NZD.... not that much against GBP

The board is recommending shorts against AUDJPY and EURJPY so I'll have a look at those.
I have a pending Long on USDJPY at 12259 which is just below Day Open.... may take this off in favour of looking at which of the Strong Currencies above are the strongest... short/mid/long. To me that's dollar, but the Short Term entry point on my favoured pairs (JPY, CAD) is not at a good entry point due to uncertainty.
We'll see at London Open.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #173
  • Jun 28, 2015 10:56pm Jun 28, 2015 10:56pm
UJ
Keeping my pending Long. Set it to 12264 (up from previous). I'll only be happy if price is above this week's open. Currently at 46. There is high probability that price will not stay at open 12262, LOL! So if I'm gonna go long, then it bloody better get it's leg over it!

EJ
Not liking what I see there for shorts. I see the weakness but not a set up that I'd be willing to play.

AJ
This has the same pattern as EJ. I would say that both are hovering around their Week Open and if they want to confirm weakness that they probably will retest their 50EMA or 100EMA for failure.... again, not a convincing setup for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 252 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #174
  • Edited Jun 29, 2015 12:35am Jun 28, 2015 11:28pm | Edited Jun 29, 2015 12:35am
UJ pending Long truggered @ 12264.
Also took a USDCHF long @ 9378.1

Edit: Target for USDCHF is 9455. UJ is undecided... by default it is the long term target of 12613.
Edit: Added USD CHF @ 9261, 2 out of 3 @ BE
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #175
  • Jun 29, 2015 12:47am Jun 29, 2015 12:47am
Quoting vlady1974
UJ pending Long truggered @ 12264. Also took a USDCHF long @ 9378.1 Edit: Target for USDCHF is 9455. UJ is undecided... by default it is the long term target of 12613. Edit: Added USD CHF @ 9261, 2 out of 3 @ BE
UC stops moved to 9387
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #176
  • Edited 1:15am Jun 29, 2015 1:00am | Edited 1:15am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} UC stops moved to 9387
Stops hit +34
So close! 30ish pips away from target! Oh well, next trade.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #177
  • Jun 29, 2015 2:01am Jun 29, 2015 2:01am
Quoting vlady1974
UJ pending Long truggered @ 12264
SL hit +14
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #178
  • Jun 29, 2015 3:23am Jun 29, 2015 3:23am
Pending Long AUDNZD @ 11220
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #179
  • Jun 29, 2015 3:32am Jun 29, 2015 3:32am
Well done Vlady,
No trades for me yet; been sick as hell with the flu since last Thursday....it came on quickly and kicked my ass. Finally feeling human again. Does the FX board have to be one ema for all TF, or can you vary them?
  • #180
  • Jun 29, 2015 3:39am Jun 29, 2015 3:39am
Quoting panamamike
Well done Vlady, No trades for me yet; been sick as hell with the flu since last Thursday....it came on quickly and kicked my ass. Finally feeling human again. Does the FX board have to be one ema for all TF, or can you vary them?
Hey Mike, hope you're getting better. Good dose of pippage can help make you feel better if it doesnt help with the flu

I just experimented this morning with it.... it's attached to 1 pair's chart and takes over the entire screen. So the first one was for EURUSD (screenshot this morning) is for 50EMA. I then added another pair, GBPUSD and set it for 200EMA. So in theory, we can add charts for different timeframes and EMAs as long as your PC and Chart Layout can handle it.

It's actually a big time saver now as I just look at the Reds and Greens.... and I can even pick out individual pairs (eg. AUDNZD) before I look at a chart.
Pity I can't see it evolve over time while I'm at work, but I think it's a great visual aid nonetheless.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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