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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #1,841
  • Edited 3:54pm Jun 14, 2015 3:15pm | Edited 3:54pm
EG long 7208 7211 1st legs
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,842
  • Edited 4:36pm Jun 14, 2015 3:59pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks Squawk Interesting method.My BB method is mix of Kathy Lien and Raghee Horner's 34EMA method. I specially like Raghee style of trading.She has many videos on youtube.On trading even taking above 200MA buy below Sell is profitable.Problem is for most people is discipline to apply and same for many systems even Vegas tunnel is profitable. Regards
There is something I haven't heard for a while Vegas tunnel. I've been trading since 2004 and joined this forum around 2005-6 and that was the first system I traded. I spent a year or so gathering data on Daily range probabilities and the Vegas tunnel. Have to say didn't work out for me but looking back there is a lot of things that I did back then It was all new information. I'm not a huge follower of Kathy or Raghee but know there systems. I've seen Kathy present a few times and spoken to her about her double BB system before but ultimately it doesn't fit my style of trading but think she has always been a good source for catch up on fundamentals thanks Davit.

I think that everybody needs to have a strategy that works for them, technical and fundamental, something that they have studied, collected data and understand. For example if you trade price action then you would have studied particular patterns and collected data, studied a particular sample size say 200 experiences. That creates your data reference points for the market and ultimately you start internalizing your understanding of the market around those reference points. This gives us the sense of control or confidence to trade and a deeper understanding and interface with the market. Then its a matter of a deeper understanding of ourselves, the psychology that provides the guidelines and parameters for trading which together with the above provides us a risk model that sits in our trading model.

Its all about building experiences that become internalized and provide a high level of consciousness to the market. Your indicator systems becomes your experience that then becomes internalized, so that information is always there to draw on.

For example:

Scott (although he might not talk to me now after I expressed fibs were an indicator ) has a great understanding of the fibs and Harmonics, has connected with them and sure has studied the most successful setup patterns around those areas.

Chris has a great understanding of the fibs and I think natural feel for the market in the chart gathered over much screen time no doubt.

I have seen you trade with BB's and RSI for a long time and believe that what you connect with the most you should ultimately stick to as you have probably carried out the above and more. What ever you connect to that has positive expectancy of probability and understanding the distribution of that probability can be at anytime positive or negative for your setup.

I think the worst we can do is keep changing our strategies because of bad loses that are caused more by bad Risk management rather than the model. Not blaming ourselves and understanding our faults I think is a big problem for traders.

Sorry I'm ranting but I like write down as re-enforces to ourselves when we write.
  • #1,843
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:08pm Jun 14, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} There is something I haven't heard for a while Vegas tunnel.
May 2008
Quoting sandez
few weeks ago I saw this system on FF - any ideas? sorry for offtopic {image}
Also have been testing it, think is a great idea to capture wave in those MAs. But have run some tests and am pretty much convinced MAs dont work as S/R, only as a general direction.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,844
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:16pm Jun 14, 2015 4:16pm
Inverse chart correlation.

Bund, Dax and Eur.

Unwinding long Bund positions, extended to Euro bonds causing stronger Euro. Selling and unwinding the related short euro Hedge positions. Anyway seems a strong correlation to the move in the Euro all though not as extreme as the Bund.

Hans Mikkelsen, a credit market strategist from Merrill Lynch

Ugly bond math
One key reason for the recent increase in US long term interest rates has been surging German rates basically unwinding a big source of downward pressure on US yields. With todays further increase in yields (+13bps to 0.99%) 30-year bund yields have now increased 53bps over the past two weeks. For the typical high yield bond with a duration of 4.4, a 53bps increase in yield would imply roughly a 2.3% decline in bond price or the equivalent of about a third of a years worth of yield. However, at their peak two weeks ago 30-year bunds had duration of 23.7. Hence 30-year bund prices have declined approximately 12% over the last two weeks, or roughly 25 years worth of yield!
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  • #1,845
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:18pm Jun 14, 2015 4:18pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} May 2008 {quote} Also have been testing it, think is a great idea to capture wave in those MAs. But have run some tests and am pretty much convinced MAs dont work as S/R, only as a general direction.
Hi Tom, you traded it as well..
  • #1,846
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:27pm Jun 14, 2015 4:27pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Hi Tom, you traded it as well..
Yes, but I wasnt patient enough. It required lots and lots of sitting and gazing on chart before entering a position. Took some time, but have few of my own systems and the one am running now feels comfortable... so far

See, the problem was in those conditions a) tunnel fibo level reached + b) h4 candlestick pattern. I like candlestick patterns. I also like fobos, but I dont trust MAs and they are in core of the system so.. the Vegas method works imo thx to those candlestick confirmations, if properly hit, than to those MAs in core... system can be much better.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,847
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:35pm Jun 14, 2015 4:35pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yes, but I wasnt patient enough. It required lots and lots of sitting and gazing on chart before entering a position. Took some time, but have few of my own systems and the one am running now feels comfortable... so far See, the problem was in those conditions a) tunnel fibo level reached + b) h4 candlestick pattern. I like candlestick patterns. I also like fobos, but I dont trust MAs and they are in core of the system so.. the Vegas method works imo thx to those candlestick confirmations, if properly hit, than to those MAs in core......
Hi Tom, the range was greater back then as well and to be honest haven't looked at that system or setup since 2007. But I have no interest in averages also but that system lead me on a collection of data and probabilities in other areas that to date I still use.

Hope its all working out for you.
  • #1,848
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:44pm Jun 14, 2015 4:44pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Hi Tom, the range was greater back then as well and to be honest haven't looked at that system or setup since 2007. But I have no interest in averages also but that system lead me on a collection of data and probabilities in other areas that to date I still use. Hope its all working out for you.
Well I also havent looked back since then, but I like systems. If I hit those summer targets and manage to stay loaded @ 5-10:1, prolly move to Myanmar to cut expenses and will be only developing systems .

For reckon - Gold 1244, EU 1,158 GU...hoping somwhere above my monitor, like 1,64 @ end of summer would be nice.

All working here, somewhat. I just hope hike cash flow wont screw me over.. could be pretty fast across all charts.

Good luck to you as well,
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,849
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:51pm Jun 14, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well I also havent looked back since then, but I like systems. If I hit those summer targets and manage to stay loaded @ 5-10:1, prolly move to Myanmar to cut expenses and will be only developing systems .
Sounds great Tom think I would move to Asia if the wife and kids would agree. Fancy nice place in indo where I can surf all day and trade 5 in the afternoon until 2 in the morning. Unfortunately don't think the family will ever agree to that.

Got to go all the best matey.
  • #1,850
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:56pm Jun 14, 2015 4:56pm
Just stacked on a bit of Gold longs pre TO open. Intraday stops 1182,495.. are just little scalpies to raise leverage.
edit: actually moving little partial stops at 1181,635

Quoting squawk
{quote} Sounds great Tom think I would move to Asia if the wife and kids would agree. Fancy nice place in indo where I can surf all day and trade 5 in the afternoon until 2 in the morning. Unfortunately don't think the family will ever agree to that. Got to go all the best matey.
Exactly + beach and sun..we dont have those in Czech.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,851
  • Edited 5:42pm Jun 14, 2015 5:14pm | Edited 5:42pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Just stacked on a bit of Gold longs pre TO open. Intraday stops 1182,495.. are just little scalpies to raise leverage. edit: actually moving little partial stops at 1181,635 {quote} Exactly + beach and sun..we dont have those in Czech.
yy, about 60% of position got cut and coz am foolish and hoping that resist will break and we go poof, reloaded this level.

Not looking good so far though, as Nikkei m5 gaining momentum up... but broke low and 20285 could hold.

ofc also loading GUs and EUs.

I wont let go easily and dodge on Gold again 1180,948.. last chance for this level as else correction goes 1176,7

edit: Btw Davit your EG trade seems wanna gain momentum m5...me targetting 7268 for correction
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,852
  • Jun 14, 2015 7:00pm Jun 14, 2015 7:00pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} yy, about 60% of position got cut and coz am foolish and hoping that resist will break and we go poof, reloaded this level. Not looking good so far though, as Nikkei m5 gaining momentum up... but broke low and 20285 could hold. ofc also loading GUs and EUs. I wont let go easily and dodge on Gold again 1180,948.. last chance for this level as else correction goes 1176,7 edit: Btw Davit your EG trade seems wanna gain momentum m5...me targetting 7268 for correction
Hi Tom
Intended to add to EG should it get lower.73.50-74 will get tested again.I love range trading and EG is one.Notice yellow box I drew.
Regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,853
  • Jun 14, 2015 7:02pm Jun 14, 2015 7:02pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} There is something I haven't heard for a while Vegas tunnel. I've been trading since 2004 and joined this forum around 2005-6 and that was the first system I traded. I spent a year or so gathering data on Daily range probabilities and the Vegas tunnel. Have to say didn't work out for me but looking back there is a lot of things that I did back then It was all new information. I'm not a huge follower of Kathy or Raghee but know there systems. I've seen Kathy present a few times and spoken to her about her double BB system before but ultimately...
Great Post friend
Agree do what works.Often its matter of timing.Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,854
  • Jun 14, 2015 8:13pm Jun 14, 2015 8:13pm
This is very interesting how the eu gapped down to this area.
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  • #1,855
  • Jun 14, 2015 8:30pm Jun 14, 2015 8:30pm
Quoting rythmrig
This is very interesting how the eu gapped down to this area. {image} {image}
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #1,856
  • Jun 14, 2015 9:38pm Jun 14, 2015 9:38pm
Playing with the 1 minute chart
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  • #1,857
  • Jun 14, 2015 9:43pm Jun 14, 2015 9:43pm
AUDUSD M15
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There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #1,858
  • Jun 14, 2015 11:00pm Jun 14, 2015 11:00pm
,,,anybody home?

,,,morning

GBPUSD H1 Short
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.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #1,859
  • Jun 14, 2015 11:10pm Jun 14, 2015 11:10pm
Quoting itsallover
,,,anybody home? ,,,morning GBPUSD H1 Short {image}
I am shorting Sterling via Euro.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,860
  • Jun 14, 2015 11:31pm Jun 14, 2015 11:31pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am shorting Sterling via Euro.
,,,, yeah

I think Sterling is weak so I'm going for a three fer,,,

,,,shorted GZ and GC
.... laughing all the way to the bank
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