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Daily pivot bounce

  • #41
  • May 5, 2015 2:00am May 5, 2015 2:00am
Quoting gwindy
Looks like that unexpected Greece news caused an early sell-off. No time to react to that one I was being safe and waiting until the pull-back candle closed...expect that same candle went south very quickly in time with the Greece news. Not sure the Japanese Bank Holiday helped either. I get the idea and timing of this strategy...very exciting.
Timing your entry is a question of personal preference. Experience helps, and it is also useful to keep an eye on news releases. In any event, the pattern is identifiable and effective. Welcome aboard Gwindy.
Tellboy
  • #42
  • May 5, 2015 10:43pm May 5, 2015 10:43pm
Be careful with EUR pairs this morning (Weds 6/5/15). After two days of downward moves the EUR hs changed its sentiment to bullish overnight, and with the exception of the strong AUD all pairs are well above their daily pivot. Our daily pivot bounce strategy therefore will not apply today. However, overnight bulls often turn bearish and there could be a spike to be faded.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10 m charts at 06-40 Weds 6:5:15.jpg Size: 766 KB
Tellboy
  • #43
  • May 5, 2015 11:00pm May 5, 2015 11:00pm
Morning Tell It is near the first resistance at the moment
Do You think would be a good idea to watch the reactions maybe at R1 or even at R2 after some Euro news regarding German PMI and another 3 Nations. They all come out at more or less the same time. Wait maybe up to 9.30 and see what happen, I know this is not Your strategy
  • #44
  • May 5, 2015 11:05pm May 5, 2015 11:05pm
Quoting ralfy
Morning Tell It is near the first resistance at the moment Do You think would be a good idea to watch the reactions maybe at R1 or even at R2 after some Euro news regarding German PMI and another 3 Nations. They all come out at more or less the same time. Wait maybe up to 9.30 and see what happen, I know this is not Your strategy
Hi Ralfy, news days are always tricky, and the pivot bounce strategy is not set up today, so it may be wise to keep out and just watch what happens, just to be safe.
Tellboy
  • #45
  • May 5, 2015 11:10pm May 5, 2015 11:10pm
Hi Tellboy,

thx for the interesting thread here.
You are correct about the EUR this morning. How about the AUD? Maybe this can do the job for us today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-Pivot-Bounce-06052015.png Size: 183 KB
  • #46
  • May 5, 2015 11:13pm May 5, 2015 11:13pm
As I watch price action right now on these EUR pairs at 07:12, I am unable to determine the direction. This is a fundamental lesson. If I can't be 100% certain which way price will move, then it is a gamble. Therefore, if there is uncertainty - stay out. Or, if in doubt - stay out.
Tellboy
  • #47
  • May 5, 2015 11:28pm May 5, 2015 11:28pm
Yours for sure is the right approach without any doubt, I wonder if You trade any other instrument
  • #48
  • May 5, 2015 11:35pm May 5, 2015 11:35pm
Quoting zoothetrader
Hi Tellboy, thx for the interesting thread here. You are correct about the EUR this morning. How about the AUD? Maybe this can do the job for us today. {image}
You may be right. It looks promising. I am not to familiar with trading these pairs, so I'll stay out, but if you want to test the strategy with the AUD, see how it works.
Tellboy
  • #49
  • May 5, 2015 11:41pm May 5, 2015 11:41pm
A very bearish USD across all pairs has thrown a spanner in the works this morning. Look at these USD pairs at 07:41.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weak USD.jpg Size: 753 KB


The timing of turning points are crucial, especially when combined with pivot bounces. Look at the timings on these USD pairs. It seems that 2 am GMT is of particular interest, so you Guys at the bottom of the world who are wide awake at that time, may like to take special interest on USD if this example is anything to go by.
Tellboy
  • #50
  • May 6, 2015 2:47am May 6, 2015 2:47am
And here the outcome of the AUD based pairs today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-Pivot-Bounce-06052015.png Size: 183 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-Pivot-Bounce-06052015-outcome.png Size: 190 KB
  • #51
  • May 6, 2015 4:38am May 6, 2015 4:38am
Quoting zoothetrader
And here the outcome of the AUD based pairs today. {image} {image}
I see you have used fib. Would you be able to put the pivot on your charts, so we can see if there is any correspondence?
Tellboy
  • #52
  • May 6, 2015 4:41am May 6, 2015 4:41am
Quoting ralfy
Yours for sure is the right approach without any doubt, I wonder if You trade any other instrument
No Ralfy. I am concentrating on the EUR pairs only right now.
Tellboy
  • #53
  • Edited 5:24am May 6, 2015 5:06am | Edited 5:24am
Today was like a lost day because the ideal set up did not materialise, but new information has emerged that could help us make more use of the principle. Look at the attached EUR/USD 30 M chart and see where the two sell signals and the buy signal are situated. The first sell signal fits in with our original pivot bounce strategy on a falling stepped-down trend. At the next sell signal, price did pull back, but not all the way to the pivot, and I did catch this down move because I waited for the pull back and then entered in line with the major stepped-down trend. I got out with a good profit when price stalled and showed signs of reversal. Subsequently, the buy signal shows us a prominent spike as price bounces of the 2nd major daily support level. Taking a trade like this is known as 'fading the spike', and as this example shows, price reversed and moved more than 150 pips in a strong rally. So, we can use the strategy when price bounces off the daily pivot at the start of the trading day, and then when it bounces off a strong support level when London gets active at 9 - 9:30.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR:USD 30 m.jpg Size: 745 KB


Is this more power to your elbow?

This morning's EUR news was positive and just now, today's USD news was negative, so it looks like we may see EUR pairs moving up further tomorrow. We shall see how the charts look in the morning.
Tellboy
  • #54
  • May 6, 2015 5:40am May 6, 2015 5:40am
Quoting tellboy
{quote} I see you have used fib. Would you be able to put the pivot on your charts, so we can see if there is any correspondence?
Hi Tellboy,
yes sure. I will add the normal pivots too. My next charts will show them both.

zoothetrader
  • #55
  • May 6, 2015 5:59am May 6, 2015 5:59am
Quoting zoothetrader
{quote} Hi Tellboy, yes sure. I will add the normal pivots too. My next charts will show them both. zoothetrader
Tellboy
  • #56
  • Edited 10:53pm May 6, 2015 6:04am | Edited 10:53pm
Here is another screenshot from the AUD setup this morning. Now showing standard pivots (solid lines) and fibonacci pivot (dotted lines).
At least today it worked out very well.
We have to be aware of that AUD related news usually come out during asian session, so the behaviour at London open can be different than with EUR related currencies.
It is interesting that AUD is rising even after rate cut. Seems to be normal in the war of currencies these days.
Ladies and Gentleman: rate cut isn't enough, QE baby ... QE ... http://fxcafe.authen.com/Expresso/im...icons/grin.png

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-Pivot-Bounce-06052015-pivots.png Size: 185 KB


zoothetrader
  • #57
  • May 6, 2015 10:06pm May 6, 2015 10:06pm
Good morning pivot traders. EUR pairs are step-up trending again, and the chart below shows how they look at 06:00 GMT. Now we go to the 10 m charts and wait for the pull back.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Prospect Thurs 7:5:15.jpg Size: 743 KB
Tellboy
  • #58
  • May 6, 2015 11:05pm May 6, 2015 11:05pm
Hi Tellboy, thanks for this. Maybe I missed something, do you wait for the first 10min candle to finish before entering?
  • #59
  • May 6, 2015 11:08pm May 6, 2015 11:08pm
Quoting publeloc
Hi Tellboy, thanks for this. Maybe I missed something, do you wait for the first 10min candle to finish before entering?
Its a question of personal preference. I wait for a retracement. You could enter with a larger stop loss. Wait and see if in doubt.
Tellboy
  • #60
  • May 6, 2015 11:12pm May 6, 2015 11:12pm
Good morning,
here is the setup with AUD pairs.

M30:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-Pivot-Bounce-M30.png Size: 214 KB


M5:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-Pivot-Bounce-07052015.png Size: 208 KB


zoothetrader
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