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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,481
  • Apr 16, 2015 8:40pm Apr 16, 2015 8:40pm
^ Same target
  • #10,482
  • Apr 16, 2015 8:52pm Apr 16, 2015 8:52pm
Quoting croseus
As a long time viewer of this thread and a relative newbie, I would like to humbly offer my own view. Based on a trend-line extending from Oct 10, 2013, I see on the hourly a test of that trend-line in the 178.59/90 area. I plan to sell a modest amount from there and accumulate orders based on confirmation. {image} {image}

Hi there - a good post.

Let me offer the reasons for my differing view. And it's by no means confirmed. Should price break over 178, then yes, it will go where you said - and probably negate the immediate down trend.

The last time GJ was down in this part of world, it tried to hold down for ages, but always kept getting pushed up. In those days 178.5 was talked about a lot, but in the end never held.

This time it came down again and spent some 20 days breaking under 178.5 in a series of corrections and, a week ago, it released from there with moderate force.

If price goes back there it sort of undoes all that hard work. So, 177.6/7 (plus or minus) is the 76.4 retracement from the bottom - and not to 179.3, but 178.5. That's why I said that if this was a mere correction, it should stop here. And if it does stop here, the down trend is alive.
  • #10,483
  • Apr 16, 2015 8:59pm Apr 16, 2015 8:59pm
IT'S ALIVE! My H4 says go long around 174
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,484
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:05pm Apr 16, 2015 9:05pm
Quoting Temujin
IT'S ALIVE!

Good to see you are. I doubt it will give this easily.
  • #10,485
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:08pm Apr 16, 2015 9:08pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Good to see you are. I doubt it will give this easily.
That's why I had to switch to the H4. All the insane volatility is smoothed out to areas more definitive. Haha! Good one MPT. It will also be the only pair I'll trade. Removed all others, even GBP/USD for a reference.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,486
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:13pm Apr 16, 2015 9:13pm
yep, looking bullish sitting on top of the 61.8 fibo....177.64 I think
  • #10,487
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:15pm Apr 16, 2015 9:15pm
Quoting Temujin
IT'S ALIVE! My H4 says go long around 174
teasing us lol hasnt had its morning tea and cigarette just yet
  • #10,488
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:16pm Apr 16, 2015 9:16pm
My intraday view, long go long, short go short

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH4.png Size: 39 KB
https://tracking.avapartner.com/_RwAAA
  • #10,489
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:17pm Apr 16, 2015 9:17pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Good to see you are. I doubt it will give this easily.
was just thinking that. i believe today is going to give even more of a fight than yesterday
  • #10,490
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:39pm Apr 16, 2015 9:39pm
^ well im short so I hope we dont even get close to there
  • #10,491
  • Edited 10:14pm Apr 16, 2015 10:03pm | Edited 10:14pm
Good (Euro) morning all

From here on I agree with you Mpt. 180 has been my target for short entry for days, though I'm not sure if it's going to go as smoothly as you say, price can still penetrate 178.2/178.5 even and then get stopped at 178.6 or 178.8. Hard to call these kinds of scenarios with precision

Daily supply is well formed, but rather wide, so anything can happen.

Second 2 numbers come from 4H supply

That's a limit order btw, not an open trade
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYDaily.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH4.png Size: 32 KB
  • #10,492
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:13pm Apr 16, 2015 10:13pm
Quoting raiders
^ well im short so I hope we dont even get close to there
Haha! Me too. Tonight will be a float upward followed by hard down.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,493
  • Apr 16, 2015 11:22pm Apr 16, 2015 11:22pm
I live on the west coast of the U.S. so London is my sleepy time. I like setting up a trade before midnight and then sleep on it with no stop loss. Sometimes I cry tears of sadness when I wake up. So now I'll keep to the H4 so I don't feel sad anymore.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,494
  • Apr 16, 2015 11:27pm Apr 16, 2015 11:27pm
Quoting Temujin
I live on the west coast of the U.S. so London is my sleepy time. I like setting up a trade before midnight and then sleep on it with no stop loss. Sometimes I cry tears of sadness when I wake up. So now I'll keep to the H4 so I don't feel sad anymore.
I live on the west coast too. But no sl is nuts lol
  • #10,495
  • Apr 16, 2015 11:29pm Apr 16, 2015 11:29pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} I live on the west coast too. But no sl is nuts lol
They will hit it I'm sure. So now I'll do like Thomas Long. 250 pip SL.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,496
  • Apr 16, 2015 11:37pm Apr 16, 2015 11:37pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} They will hit it I'm sure. So now I'll do like Thomas Long. 250 pip SL.
Were at the wall right now. IMO if we go over 180 our shorts are fucked. So, ive set up my sl there just in case this bad boy turns on me. Its a small price to pay just in case.
  • #10,497
  • Apr 17, 2015 12:05am Apr 17, 2015 12:05am
Quoting raiders
{quote} Were at the wall right now. IMO if we go over 180 our shorts are fucked. So, ive set up my sl there just in case this bad boy turns on me. Its a small price to pay just in case.
Perhaps after the UK election or at the months end when the big Japanese data is due a new bullish channel will begin. The BOE is not going to even think about rate increases until 2016. Maybe range bound for now? I think so.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,498
  • Apr 17, 2015 12:13am Apr 17, 2015 12:13am
GBP came out strong. I closed out
  • #10,499
  • Edited 12:26am Apr 17, 2015 12:16am | Edited 12:26am
Quoting raiders
GBP came out strong. I closed out
I'll stay in. 177.83
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,500
  • Apr 17, 2015 12:16am Apr 17, 2015 12:16am
Or this could be a fake pump. There's a lot of resistance at the moment at this level.

The previous hour, price bounced off the daily pivot of 177.43 which is also the bottom of an old trend line.
Lost....
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