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Let's Trade Options

  • #7,661
  • Mar 12, 2015 2:54pm Mar 12, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting StrayDog
Brazil is as I said before, a total FUBAR now...
Well, everything changes, except some things don't really change that much, or, if they do, they prolly just get worse. Anyway, there are cheap spreads out in the fotm PBR chains - you can do Oct $7/$8 calls for $0.10 pays around 7x if PBR gets much above $8 in Q3...hey it was trading near $8 just a month or so ago....might take that long for crude to bounce well, USD to weaken, political mess in Brazil to cool down, pigs to fly across the sky, etc, etc...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,662
  • Mar 12, 2015 2:59pm Mar 12, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Out for a $0.10 gainer. I think I would've made a little more tomorrow, but not sure enough...
..one of these days I will learn to let a breakout run - left another $0.05 or more on the table there...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,663
  • Mar 12, 2015 3:24pm Mar 12, 2015 3:24pm
Dear Santa,

Please let FXCM splode up to $5 before Mar expiry I have been good.

Thank You,

The Fool
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-12_fxcm.png Size: 60 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,664
  • Mar 12, 2015 10:54pm Mar 12, 2015 10:54pm
Quoting The Fool
Dear Santa, Please let FXCM splode up to $5 before Mar expiry
32% of the float short as of 2/27, they say they will pay of all of their rescue loan before the end of the year, they are selling assets to get that done, earnings beat by 2x estimates, 2x better than a few months back, when FXCM traded north of $15/share, I am looking for heavy volume tomorrow, a short squeeze to push share price to $5+, Thank You, Santa...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,665
  • Mar 12, 2015 11:20pm Mar 12, 2015 11:20pm
Most of the largest USO options trades from today are bearish put spreads, see below....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-12_uso.png Size: 84 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,666
  • Mar 12, 2015 11:40pm Mar 12, 2015 11:40pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post8133496
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,667
  • Mar 13, 2015 1:45am Mar 13, 2015 1:45am
Something to read on the train...

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-w...reserve-2015-3

http://www.bis.org/publ/work483.htm
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,668
  • Mar 13, 2015 2:41am Mar 13, 2015 2:41am
$0.02 for a $2-wide USO call spread?....if you could fill it....at $0.02 debit, a 50-lot trade gets on for <$200 and could get you nearly $10k if USO reaches $31 by Oct expiry....>50:1.....nice....But given the long-dated spread, you can make good money sooner if USO moves, P/L graph below shows P/L state at July expiry....with b/e around $21 and almost $1k gain at USO $25....

(Also check $23/$23.5 Oct calls, showing a $0.04 mid)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-13_USO.png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-13_jul.png Size: 45 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,669
  • Mar 13, 2015 3:51am Mar 13, 2015 3:51am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post8133496
I met one Irish gentleman on one of my vacations in Egypt. He was retired, worked as cameraman for BBC. He bought apartment in Sharm-El-Sheikh, which is one of the most popular Egyptian places for vacation. It is in Asian part of the country, where rich Saudis come for swimming... So he lives there all year except July and August (the hottest months), when he goes home. Hurghada is also very nice, and cheaper. Red Sea is amazing. Egypt is very cheap for any western people. Right time for vacation is either May or September. Air is dry, so you have feeling that it isn't that hot, like in some hot and humid countries, where you sweating like crazy.

There are some really cheap properties in Spain and Greece also. All of the above have perfect time zone.
I have seen in both Spain and Greece rich UK people who are renting theirs London or whatever apartments, and use that rent to lease properties there. Living like kings from the difference...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,670
  • Mar 13, 2015 4:06am Mar 13, 2015 4:06am
Quoting The Fool
$0.02 for a $2-wide USO call spread?....if you could fill it....at $0.02 debit, a 50-lot trade gets on for <$200 and could get you nearly $10k if USO reaches $31 by Oct expiry....>50:1.....nice....But given the long-dated spread, you can make good money sooner if USO moves, P/L graph below shows P/L state at July expiry....with b/e around $21 and almost $1k gain at USO $25.... (Also check $23/$23.5 Oct calls, showing a $0.04 mid) {image} {image}
Looking good. Just keep in mind CL / USO ratio, which has changed over time. USO has natural drag when CL futures are in contango, which is m/l all the time.

But I get the concept. If you enter the spreads for peanuts, even the 1/2 of the max move to short strike will give you good money.

After watching some tt videos, and my own trading, I get one thing: put spreads and put calendars when IV is low produce best results, because if you are directionally right, there are benefits from both u/l moving down AND IV increases. I remember when I tried DC for TWTR ER's, and put side went x4 at the end. And multiplier would be higher IF bought earlier.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,671
  • Mar 13, 2015 6:47am Mar 13, 2015 6:47am
Hmmmm....

IEA sees renewed pressure on crude prices

Mar 13 2015, 06:17 ET | By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor http://seekingalpha.com/images/mail_icon.png

  1. Oil prices might have stabilized only temporarily because the global oil glut is worsening and U.S. production shows no sign of slowing, the International Energy Agency announced today.
  2. Putting additional downward pressure on prices, the energy watchdog said the U.S. may soon run out of spare capacity to store crude and forecast the process to last at least until the second half of 2015, when growth in U.S. oil production is expected to start abating.
  3. Crude futures -0.7% to $46.74.


"Run out of spare capacity"... ???

Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,672
  • Mar 13, 2015 7:16am Mar 13, 2015 7:16am
Quoting The Fool
FXCM, I am looking for heavy volume tomorrow, a short squeeze to push share price to $5+, Thank You, Santa...
she's up $0.25 on early volume of 400k shares traded - I am looking for 50x that by the end of the day and an epic short squeeze....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,673
  • Mar 13, 2015 7:27am Mar 13, 2015 7:27am
Quoting StrayDog
But I get the concept. If you enter the spreads for peanuts, even the 1/2 of the max move to short strike will give you good money. After watching some tt videos, and my own trading, I get one thing: put spreads and put calendars when IV is low produce best results, because if you are directionally right, there are benefits from both u/l moving down AND IV increases.
Yup, you still need to be somewhat right about your target on the calendars - you can get out of profit if something moves outside your b/e's. The nice thing about the verticals is you just need to be directionally right and get enough of a move before expiry.

On long oil, via USO, I am pushing way out to Jan, using very wide calendars mostly (Jul/Jan) but also those long dated verticals. It's true that when you have verticals pushed way out in time and fotm, the b/e may not be hard to hit, but otoh, the P/L line is very flat, so you might get in profit, but it takes bigger moves to make good money.

So....the talking heads have been right? ...storage is filling up and output is still high, demand has not come up enough to take up the slack and so crude price is going down?...well, the tape don't lie, /CL looking to hit $45.xx this morning...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,674
  • Mar 13, 2015 7:37am Mar 13, 2015 7:37am
Quoting The Fool
So what? So you can get in some cheap Mar5/Apr1 spreads! Cheap spreads! The SPY $194/$201 puts double calendar debits $0.26, does not have huge r:r, but does have a wide profit zone, with b/e's between $190.40 and $204.00 at expiry... {image}
I did several of the SPY $195 and $194 put calendars yesterday, Mar5/Apr1, for $0.08-$0.10....omg the FOMC is coming! They are no longer patient! Hide your children!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,675
  • Mar 13, 2015 7:49am Mar 13, 2015 7:49am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I met one Irish gentleman on one of my vacations in Egypt. He was retired, worked as cameraman for BBC. He bought apartment in Sharm-El-Sheikh, which is one of the most popular Egyptian places for vacation. It is in Asian part of the country, where rich Saudis come for swimming... So he lives there all year except July and August (the hottest months), when he goes home. Hurghada is also very nice, and cheaper. Red Sea is amazing. Egypt is very cheap for any western people. Right time for vacation is either May or September. Air is dry, so...

Any of that sounds nice. The Squid I see said today they are expecting EUR/USD to get down to $0.80. I could rent out my house and live like a caliph. I need to be somewhere that they will not behead me, though.....that would slow me down. Idk, though, with advances in stem cell technology, I could keep going, like Nixon's head in a bell jar on Futurama, and maybe Lucy Liu could carry me around. But the time zone is the main thing. As you can see, I am up way too early, usually get up at 0500 after going to bed at 0100, so by the end of the week I am delirious, prone to making stupid trades, going long USO, etc....

http://i1.wp.com/www.ruthlessreviews...size=370%2C351
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,676
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:18am Mar 13, 2015 8:18am
I just stumbled upon this thread today and it got my attention because even though I'm an active FX trader, trading options on equities is my 1st love. I love trading option spreads (ie... Butterflys, Iron Condors, Calenders, Vertical Spreads) with the ThinkOrSwim platform. I primarily sell premium, but i do play breakouts with vertical spreads for cost efficiency. I contend if one understands options, it makes absolutely no sen$e to trade individual stocks (unless it's low price stock or stock is not optionable). I would love to combine my 2 trading passions: options+ forex = FX Options. I would love to hear from anyone who has found success trading 'options on FX'.
  • #7,677
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:23am Mar 13, 2015 8:23am
Quoting TraderDTP
I just stumbled upon this thread today..... I would love to hear from anyone who has found success trading 'options on FX'.
Hey there,

You're more than welcome to pull up a chair and share your options trades, fx or otherwise. Personally, I'd like to get into fx options trading, but have not done so yet. Mostly this is because I am trying to build up IRA trading accounts and I can not trade futures options from those. Occasionally, I will trade options on FXE, UUP, etc, but mostly I'm trading the most liquid equity options - SPY, TLT, etc...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,678
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:25am Mar 13, 2015 8:25am
Quoting TraderDTP
I just stumbled upon this thread today and it got my attention because even though I'm an active FX trader, trading options on equities is my 1st love. I love trading option spreads (ie... Butterflys, Iron Condors, Calenders, Vertical Spreads) with the ThinkOrSwim platform. I primarily sell premium, but i do play breakouts with vertical spreads for cost efficiency. I contend if one understands options, it makes absolutely no sen$e to trade individual stocks (unless it's low price stock or stock is not optionable). I would love to combine my 2 trading...
Welcome... only a handful of us is active on this thread, and would love to see more of your posts!
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,679
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:29am Mar 13, 2015 8:29am
Quoting StrayDog
... I opened a short at 2065... lets see....
I closed that SPX CFD position about an hour ago at 2059, because idk... it looks suspicious ... beer money.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,680
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:32am Mar 13, 2015 8:32am
Hey TF... I just bought more of that BABA calendar... for $0.05...

BUT it was hilarious to see your closing order at $0.80... nothing at ASK first couple of seconds, only your spreads...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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