GBPNZD trading calls

1.4250-1.4350. Right now I have the order to close at 1.4250, but at 1.4350 I will be ready to act if things don't look perfect.

Took my losses on GN GA trades, hurts.... had such a nice short position on GN, did the typical moronic move and got out early then fought it! Ahhh... Oh well. Got plenty of other plays running that should bring in some cheese, no biggie. Gotta be smarter and more disciplined/patient next time, you were right on Zap.
Bet they'll bounce now that i'm out ,, haha..

Don't feel bad. I've done what you did and much worse too many times to count. Trading is not easy. You'll learn.

Also, the early loss is the best loss. When you know your wrong, just take the loss quickly. There is a winner right around the corner.

Hey, like I said, there's another trade right around the corner. Check this one out.

Go short GBPUSD right now. Stop and target on chart.

Or this one.

Go long AUDJPY.

See, there's always trades to take. No reason to stick around in a shitty one.

Yea, don't really see anything I like right now other than USD weakness in short term, only to buy USD at better price for trend continuation. And also like shorting stock mkts, again, only to buy them back lower for trend continuations.
With AUD JPY, personally I am and would rather be short USD JPY and long AUD USD---(i'm not long aud usd), and then go reverse on both when trade is complete. I will definitely be shorting AUD/USD soon after this usd weakness is through.

GBP clearly due for a bounce imo, probably even more so against AUD and NZD short term.

I think the thing to do with GBP/NZD right now is treat it as a ginormously rangebound pair, with the idea being to short it at the top of the range:



... shorting it from between 2.075 and 2.085 would've done nicely on several occasions in 2015 with a target of around 2.035, which would have netted some massive pippage. Naturally, we're breaking lower now, but I only short the pair due to positive swap (so waiting again for an approach to 2.75 or so).

The concern going forward, though, is that the BOE is on the verge of tightening, which could send the pair far higher, but it seems to be firmly capped by 2.1 on the Daily ... . Drill out to the Weekly and the next resistance is at about 2.21. Not for the faint of heart (current Daily 14 Period ATR around 240, but it's been as high as 320-ish). May want to go smaller with lot sizes due to movement ... .

Long GBPNZD

The 4h candle is due to close in half an hour. I have good signals at the 1h TF as well. Entered a long position 30 minutes ago.

NZD is weakening aboard other pairs as well.

Entered a short NZDJPY position 30 minutes ago. Again, normally I wait for the close of the 4h candle. But sometimes i go down to the 1h TF. If the signals are in line with the 4h candle, I take an earlier entry this way. Gather some more pips.

This is done especially right after the open of the london session and US session.


http://i.imgur.com/QiyCzUc.jpg

NZDJPY

Also with this pair entry was made at the 1h TF. Entry at the close of candle when signals was in line with the direction on the 4h TF.

http://i.imgur.com/EwH7a7y.jpg

GBPNZD position closed by SL beeing hit. Support at 2.0050. I am still bullish on this one. The coming week all the major currencies has important fundamentals/news.

Enough to move the markets. This currency pair is on the radar for the coming week..

Make or break for the GBPNZD in the coming week. Will it respect the support and stay above and trade at the 2.xxxxx level. Alternatively if it succesfully breaks support and continue to decline it will be traded at the 1.9xxxx level for the short term.

Picture belows shows it movement for the last 15 months. The 2.10000 level has been the highest unbreaked resistance for the pair since late November 2011. The pair has continued to test this level within this period. At the other end the downside to the pair is gradually tightening within this period. With the lows raising from the mid 1.7xxxx`s, via the mid 1.8xxxx`s to the lows of the 1.9xxxx`s.

For the longer term my opinion is that there is a greater upside, compared to the downside with this pair.

http://i.imgur.com/M7NPw7e.jpg

The next picture shows how the pair has been moving for the last two months. Currently it is testing the support at around 2.0050 for the second time in just above a weeks time.

If this support is broken, the first support level to be tested I have at around 1.98300. A more significant support level is found at the 1.96000 level. Beneath this level the 1.93600 area in my opinion would be the maximum downside potential for a bearish move on the pair. This is in conjunction with the overall tightening of the downside with this pair.

If the current supports holds and the pair remains in the upper channel, the first resistance will be met at around the 2.0350 level. After this level the 2.05700 area is the next level to give resistance to an upside movement.

From here we will find resistance with an intervall of 100 pips starting from 2.08500 up two 2.10500 level. The area around 2.10000 the level working as a major resistance.

http://i.imgur.com/0iq3yPS.jpg

Big fundamentals coming this week on both currencies as well, with Wednesday being the important day of news releases for both currencies. Before lunch time in the European session the UK will release their employment/wage numbers and the votes and minutes for their interest rate decision made two weeks ago.

Just after the US session has finished the same day the GDP from New Zealand will be released.

These are the major movers/drivers for the currency this week.

What can we expect before the fundamentals is released? A clear direction, where the pair is trading towards this? Alternatively a rangebound low volatility movement towards the release. Well, time will show..

My signals towards the pairs directions is as follows (picture below): I have a starting divergence between price and what I think is the consensus of the market. When this occurs around the support/resistance levels I wait for entry signal in direction of the divergence. Currently the entry indicators are pointing towards downside movement. When this changes I will enter a long position.

http://i.imgur.com/zPqorj0.jpg

This could happen at a lower price than today. If the pair breaks below the current support, I will look for short positon and join the movement. Still the overall picture for me is that the pair is going to move higher. A bearish move will be followed by a stronger bullish move.

It all comes down to if the current support at 2.00500 is broken or not. If it breaks, 1.96000/1.93600 is a probably scenario.

Closed out my shorts last Thursday, when I got home from work. Didn't like what I was seeing. I trade off the NY 5pm daily close. The line of interest that I'm looking at for now. The 2.0025 area.

GBP/NZD daily update. After today's candle opened and started going up, I went ahead and put a sell stop at opening price, before going to bed last night. Then I connect the two previous lows and where they intersect with the time line of the previous high is my take profit target.

H4 view of my buy line that I'm interested in. Connecting the two swing lows and the time line of the swing high afterwards and where they intersect at. The 1.99 area is where I'll be thinking of going long. Then when you look at the monthly, this is the same area that the bears were able to close at, the last time they brought it down, last November. Waiting to see what London does after I wake up tomorrow before deciding what I do.

Said it here as well. Was so sure it was going to happen, then they had that LL stop out move on friday which fucked me and my intentions. Oh well.

lets see how daily looks ,

Hey Bones,

Strange, I just was mentioning that to you....


Don't call the harmonic police, EN gives it credence and so does reaction.
Edit: GA too

Hi Ya Scott the gbp is scaring me a bit ,its a bitch at times , I'm thinking this could hold for mo ,
hence my preference eur ,dax