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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #13,061
  • Feb 12, 2015 11:56pm Feb 12, 2015 11:56pm
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Did you take the trade. It pretty much entered your PRZ went up about 18 pips then dropped down again. Now its @1.14220 (thereabouts) Likely to go UP - mini double bottom.....hmmm Ive been looking into GU too....... Masterrmind.........
Yer two trades, they can be seen on the chart just before your post

One I'm not too proud of, but the reasoning was there, could have been a little more patient though. The other was to the OF strat. It is about 5 pips above my PRZ which I happy with.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,062
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:36am Feb 13, 2015 12:36am
GBPUSD +20 pips (M5 chart)

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Following the OF down with the bears....slight pullback up to resistance and then a nice continuation down.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,063
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:48am Feb 13, 2015 12:48am
Quoting Masterrmind
GBPUSD +20 pips (M5 chart) {image} Following the OF down with the bears....slight pullback up to resistance and then a nice continuation down. Masterrmind.............

Nice work. I forgot, I was going to look in on GU, looks like the bears are capable of a largish correction. May look for an entry myself.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,064
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:54am Feb 13, 2015 12:54am
Quoting Jamos
Is this thread losing its direction? It appears that we in our own ways have loosely adopted Mr Pips methodology, although I do not believe that it has yet been fully comprehended by any member on this thread thus far. I know that I still have a lot of learning to do. The entire method from entries to rules to money management have been provided for our benefit on this thread. This is valuable to me for the simple fact that by following the rules I have been able to make profit overall. The more obvious and simple trade setups are always the better...
Hello Jamos,

Thanks for your feedback - you do raise some valid points.

I didn't really post charts for quite a while... until Mr. Pip requested everybody post more. I also know it's better for people to see live trades in action, but like many traders here I'm trading real accounts so my focus must be on the trade itself. Therefore, often the 'live trade' post has scant information which I try to back fill later on. This can, of course, get out of hand and turn a thread into personal trade journals which is a point I'll take on board.

Regarding digression into other areas, I use 2 additional areas that Mr. Pip doesn't (pivot points and trend lines). I do try to keep references to those at a minimum, but occasionally it is unavoidable in the chart annotation because without it the trade seems scant on confluence, particularly for why I chose an exit or entry point, or where I placed a stop. Fortunately, because structure has usually formed at pivots anyway, I can make reference just to the structure. It is more difficult with trend lines. However, out of respect for the thread I won't delve into discussion of these techniques any more.

Anyway, I'll dial back my posts for a while to avoid the "trade journal" side of things.

Good luck everyone
  • #13,065
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:54am Feb 13, 2015 12:54am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Nice work. I forgot, I was going to look in on GU, looks like the bears are capable of a largish correction. May look for an entry myself.
Yeah that trade worked out good but a bit of DD back to resistance (but my stop was placed right out of the way so no problems there and I was watching it throughout).

Watching more than 1 or 2 pairs can become interesting (not always in a good way)

Anyway onto the next trade.....

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,066
  • Edited 1:43am Feb 13, 2015 1:24am | Edited 1:43am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Yeah that trade worked out good but a bit of DD back to resistance (but my stop was placed right out of the way so no problems there and I was watching it throughout). Watching more than 1 or 2 pairs can become interesting (not always in a good way) Anyway onto the next trade..... Masterrmind.............
Yer I was just thinking about that too. This system can involve a lot of work and watching more than a couple of pairs becomes labour intensive.

EU bulls look exhausted I have an exit strategy if it drops.

Just entered EA short after closing long +28. I will keep a tight rein on this one in case it wants to fly higher.

Edit: Closed my EU trades +3 total, may still go up but starting to feel like gambling now.
Got knocked out of EA -16 but have re-entered risk 5 pips (got hit by a stop hunt on the spread as was watching, bstds :/ )
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,067
  • Feb 13, 2015 1:56am Feb 13, 2015 1:56am
Blah, that was crap.
How did this candle formation lose? I sold second from the top and the following candles looked like they confirmed.... -5.
Attached Image
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,068
  • Feb 13, 2015 2:14am Feb 13, 2015 2:14am
Quoting Matts Micro
Blah, that was crap. How did this candle formation lose? I sold second from the top and the following candles looked like they confirmed.... -5. {image}
Been watching GJ for an entry..... current sT OF is down so its back and forth inside a descending channel.

Keeping an eye open for a possible entry trigger.

GJ (M5 chart)

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So when in doubt just pass on it...........simple!

A break of the channel on the upside might have led you to believe the bulls were going to take price higher BUT almost as fast as the break out the bears gathered strength and pulled price back down......... things you always have to be aware of and try to deal with it.

Following the order flow and trying to "predict" where price might go is not always straight forward.

Masterrmind..........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,069
  • Feb 13, 2015 2:56am Feb 13, 2015 2:56am
Quoting honestknave
{quote} Hello Jamos, Thanks for your feedback - you do raise some valid points. I didn't really post charts for quite a while... until Mr. Pip requested everybody post more. I also know it's better for people to see live trades in action, but like many traders here I'm trading real accounts so my focus must be on the trade itself. Therefore, often the 'live trade' post has scant information which I try to back fill later on. This can, of course, get out of hand and turn a thread into personal trade journals which is a point I'll take on board. Regarding...
I think your posts on the thread are some of the more valuable ones.
  • #13,070
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:13am Feb 13, 2015 3:13am
Firstly thanks for your posts of support.

Clearly yesterday I had a bad day and spat my dummy out, which is really unlike me!! More on this is a minute.

Quoting honestknave
{quote} Hi PipTrendz, I'm really sorry to read that One of your previous posts mentioned trying to trade the news. I think that is a really difficult skill set all by itself. For me on the time frame that I trade, I know I can't ignore fundamentals so I try to keep a keen eye on it. In fact, that is the main reason I only trade one pair. That being said, I still don't trade news; I just have a healthy respect for how it can really ruin my day. Perhaps the best way to put it would be: As a rule, I wouldn't enter a trade because of the news, but...
Yeah the news trades were a mistake and trying to second guess the tops and where the market would turn with such big news impact was again a mistake.

A loss limit may be an idea but I think more of a plan is to walk away on big news. I need to go get a coffee, lunch, just anything to get away from my screen and remove the temptation to trade. This will no doubt be part of my new rules I am working on.

Quoting Jamos
{quote} You have done some awesome trades previously, don't worry about a bad day. It is only money. We make some we lose some and we learn. You cannot begin to judge your performance as a trader in the first couple of years. We have to lose money to learn about those emotions. This is how demo trading can create a false sense of accomplishment with strategies etc. when the real battle is with our emotions toward gaining and losing actual money. Euphoria from profiting is just as misleading as negative emotions are from a loss. These thoughts you...
Thanks, yeah there were a lot of issues for me yesterday and fighting my own emotion was right up there. I think sometimes I go into "all or nothing" which is kind of a self destruct mode and not a good plan. So I put more in to get even after a bad run, which is just stupid. If it works then I get a false positive in that I am okay when in fact I am not as I have thrown my rules away and made huge mistakes. This is not goo foundations for a successful trader. I will learn and I will be back.

Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Sorry to hear this. I had a crappy day yesterday too, though I did manage to scratch some pips back in the end. It sounds like you have the same problem I struggled with for a very long time and occasionally still have relapses. I have found that when I was having a bad day I would continue to trade past extreme losses and not give up. Imo the trading day needs to viewed the same as setting a SL on a trade; if you can't walk away from a market that doesn't accept your system's premise for that day due to what ever reasons then your account...
Yeah again, having a kind of max loss for the day may be a good idea, but I think if I actually stick to a rigid set of rules then I should never get near this. I have a lot of learning to do over the next week and then I will return a MUCH better trader, promise!!

I have never really read much about stop hunters but have heard it many times. I may take some time to look this up to help my understanding a little over the next week, thanks.

Quoting Jamos
Is this thread losing its direction? It appears that we in our own ways have loosely adopted Mr Pips methodology, although I do not believe that it has yet been fully comprehended by any member on this thread thus far. I know that I still have a lot of learning to do. The entire method from entries to rules to money management have been provided for our benefit on this thread. This is valuable to me for the simple fact that by following the rules I have been able to make profit overall. The more obvious and simple trade setups are always the better...
I hear what you are saying and really all trades should have info on their entries and exits to explain for us all to dissect. I think the issue is time for most, I know for me I will not often post until a trade is done, but do try to have a good explanation there.

It is important for people to continue to post their trades and for people to question, understand or just applaud a good trade. Mr Pip encouraged this and as I think all the information about this trading style is already within the thread it is now down for us to use it, share our experiences and learn from each other.

Mr Pip said he will not always be around and he seems to be having a little break now and I know he likes everyone to carry the thread on with their trades.

Please also post some of your trades, good and bad and we can all work together to improve and grow.

So a little more ramblings from me before I "tap out" for a short learning break....

My issues were compounded by mistakes and other influences on my mood, then I tend to go into self destruct mode. My initial trade was after the initial spike following the BoE meeting, then I thought I found some confluence area and a slowing in price to used that to guess the top of the swing to place a sell order. I knew it was high risk but also the rewards would have been high.

The issue with that is that it is not really what is taught on this thread and with the strength of the bulls I should not have made that trade. Then that led onto other trades hunting the top of the news, which I did eventually get but only after a few losers and then a small win.

I also had a 1.5 hour call with my bank who were making mistakes with my account that were eventually rectified but after speaking to about 8 people and getting passed from pillar to post!! Again this got my mood in the wrong direction and took me away from my charts meaning my analysis was not as good as it should have been.

So all in all a lot of valid lessons and a time to step away from trading for a short time. This is not to say I will not be trading but I need to analyse things and learn from my trading from this month. I have a spreadsheet I am going to log all my trades, I have saved screen shots of all trades so it is time for me to redefine my rules before going at it again.

In honesty I think I know what my main issues are and what works well but I think sitting down and going through my decision process trade by trade will help solidify my rules for entry and get me back on the right track.

I also have a bit on next week so it may be a week before I start to post again.
  • #13,071
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:39am Feb 13, 2015 3:39am
Good post PipTrendz

I hate to say it and I hope I'm wrong but it is likely you will make the same mistakes again until your discipline becomes ingrained, it is the nature of the beast. I still make mistakes after a few years of experience, don't be too hard on yourself, regather and come back stronger. If you can take one lesson away from this it would be to always protect your capital, though I'm sure you know that (sorry if that sounds like salt in wound, it's not intentional but it is the building block to everything we do here).

GL and looking forward to reading your postings again
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,072
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:45am Feb 13, 2015 3:45am
All the best PipTrendz and hopefully we see you back here very soon...........

Take care mate,

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,073
  • Feb 13, 2015 4:17am Feb 13, 2015 4:17am
GJ - analysed from another angle and 1 observation made all the difference 2 trades 1@ 12 pips and 1 @ 18 pips

total 30 pips

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green triangle is the hint in this chart that gave me the intended direction then I simply followed the OF....slow process but it hit TP.

SL set outside the channel for obvious reasons

TP set close to a previous recent high at the start of where the green upper channel line commences - 1st obvious location of where price could find resistance so that's my preferred spot for TP.

Important to follow the OF through the channel and identify the change of direction (refer to the chart)

Note: there was never a reason for me to exit the trade because structure was in place and hadn't been broken!

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,074
  • Feb 13, 2015 4:31am Feb 13, 2015 4:31am
Quoting Jamos
{quote} I think your posts on the thread are some of the more valuable ones.
Thank you Jamos, that's very kind

Nevertheless, I will try to keep my posts as educational as possible from now on.

This is a short trade I'm currently in on EU.

Long term orderflow had been bullish, however their strength started to break down. There are many clues to that, but an obvious one was the lack of projection on the last HH (marked yellow). The bulls then made progressively worse comebacks (marked in white) before price keeled over and fell down the stairs like a slinky.

Price stalled out in the golden zone, which would be an obvious point for the bulls to return as it was also an area of overextension. 2 pushes got price up to the 38 / 50 fib (depending which swing you measure) which was the minimum expected retracement. The second retest of 38/50 fibs made it clear the bears were going to carry this south.

This was a good entry in line with short term order flow, after the long term order flow had failed to resume.

There are several obstacles in the way. It has hit the round number with force, so I expect this to continue although it needs to push through some structure from the previous swing. Next up will be the 50 fib of a major swing (marked in black) before 1:1 completion. Beyond that, the red 38 fib would tie in nicely with an over extension of the AB=CD. As always, the actual exit will be determined by price response.

Currently, the trade is locked in at BE. If the round number breaks convincingly, the SL will be just above the RN.
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  • #13,075
  • Feb 13, 2015 4:42am Feb 13, 2015 4:42am
Long GU - bear weakness!

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,076
  • Feb 13, 2015 4:55am Feb 13, 2015 4:55am
Quoting honestknave
{quote}This is a short trade I'm currently in on EU. Long term orderflow had been bullish, however their strength started to break down. There are many clues to that, but an obvious one was the lack of projection on the last HH (marked yellow).{image}
Good post honestknave

I have being trading EU today too with a good results (+46 on the pair today)

I agree the OF has being turning from the bulls to the bears. The first hint for me was with the lack of a new high on the news release of Germany's better than expected numbers on GDP. The Hrly rising TL was then broken for the bears to come in (which happened by some pretty big orders I think). I am also watching that 50% Fib level and have a st PRZ just under it, it is being hit as I type. The wick touched my PRZ (again lol) waiting to see if PA enders then candle formation for closing of a short and perhaps a correction up.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,077
  • Feb 13, 2015 5:12am Feb 13, 2015 5:12am
Quoting Masterrmind
Long GU - bear weakness! Masterrmind.............
Closed out at about BE (I pay the commission)

Not enough intent to drive prices higher.

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Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,078
  • Feb 13, 2015 5:15am Feb 13, 2015 5:15am
Quoting Masterrmind
Long GU - bear weakness! Masterrmind.............
I see what you mean, GL
It is good timing for correlating my EU long. (PRZ looks like it worked on this occasion). See if the bulls have any punch left for a few pips, it's against my lt OF. Looks like it might punch through the PRZ as I type, still a bit of support to work through....
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,079
  • Feb 13, 2015 5:17am Feb 13, 2015 5:17am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Closed out at about BE (I pay the commission) Not enough intent to drive prices higher. Masterrmind............
Yeah had another look just after my post, there seems to be a lot of structure on the GU above PA. EU still in though. WD on B.E. it is a win regardless of which way it goes.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,080
  • Feb 13, 2015 5:21am Feb 13, 2015 5:21am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Yeah had another look just after my post, there seems to be a lot of structure on the GU above PA. EU still in though. WD on B.E. it is a win regardless of which way it goes.
The intention was to get a few pips out of the trade but in the end I was happy to get out of it really.

Better trades around the corner..........

Good luck with your trade...........can't lose as you say so that's perfect!

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
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