Oil and Natural Gas

Same here, waiting for confirmation before I go long. There ought to a follow thru higher tomorrow if we get a strong close today, so I can wait.

I've personally started building light longs in the 45 zone targeting 49-50 [possible extension to 50.2] before starting to set up shorts towards 42 zone.

Need this 61.8 fib extension taken out though to have my confirmation of my targets!

https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/28733...apital-markets

On the downside, the 161.8 was hit today at 44.8 which for me is a retracement level.

61.8 on the upside extension is now breached therefore I see room to go back to the high 40s.. A couple of days of the upside would set up nice for next leg down (based on PA).

political will is here..., better stay away for a while, as for me 39 - 42 till March, then it's depends on Russia's behavior.... http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...-soros-2015-01

hey bud how have you been?

nice article....

Potential resistance for next leg down?

My 61.8 seems to be respected on 15M+ TFs therefore closed the small longs I had in place waiting for next price down potentially.

Low 40s is the current near term target for the next month+ however even with a bullish daily close, if it doesn't close above 46.4 for me then as mentioned by another poster, could just be another intraday bull trap.

thanks G, ... always with you, ... fighting myself to not do stupid trades, sometimes unsuccessfully..., as usual, you know traders business..., hardly find a reasons for gold moving to 1280..., just for a better spot to short...

good article but I wouldn't go as far as saying that Ukraine will collapse.

Iran started to threaten other OPEC countries, which means that some gentlemen started to getting nervous. A few dollars less is very possible.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...ll-street.html

Oil at $40, and Below, Gaining Traction on Wall Street
By Grant Smith Jan 13, 2015 7:01 PM ET


http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iWhPsO.eOT0M.jpg
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
Employees pass beneath pipes leading to oil storage tanks at the central processing plant for oil and gas at the Salym Petroleum Development oil fields near the Bazhenov shale formation in Salym, Russia. Oil is seeking a “new equilibrium” as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries abandons its role of keeping supply and demand aligned, according to Goldman. Close
Employees pass beneath pipes leading to oil storage tanks at the central processing... Read More
Close
OpenPhotographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
Employees pass beneath pipes leading to oil storage tanks at the central processing plant for oil and gas at the Salym Petroleum Development oil fields near the Bazhenov shale formation in Salym, Russia. Oil is seeking a “new equilibrium” as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries abandons its role of keeping supply and demand aligned, according to Goldman.
Related

1. Cheaper Oil Is Double-Edged Sword for U.S.: Chovanec

Brace for $40-a-barrel oil.
The U.S. benchmark crude price, down more than $60 since June to below $45 yesterday, is on the way to this next threshold, said Societe Generale SA and Bank of America Corp. And Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says that West Texas Intermediate needs to remain near $40 during the first half to deter investment in new supplies that would add to the glut.
“The markets are continuing to price in huge oversupply in the first half of 2015,” Mike Wittner, head of research at Societe Generale SA in New York, said by phone on Jan. 12. “We’re going to go below $40.”
Oil is seeking a “new equilibrium” as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries abandons its role of keeping supply and demand aligned, according to Goldman. Prices are poised to drop further, testing the ability of U.S. shale drillers to keep pumping.
WTI fell as low as $44.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday and closed at $45.89, the least since April 2009. The U.S. benchmark has dropped 14 percent this month, extending a 46 percent plunge last year that was the worst since the 2008 financial crisis.
OPEC Strategy
OPEC is trying to maintain its share of the global oil market against the rise of U.S. output. United Arab Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei reiterated yesterday that shale producers will capitulate before OPEC to lower prices, the latest in more than a dozen comments from Gulf members aimed at hastening oil’s slide and lowering non-OPEC supply. The group upheld its target of 30 million barrels a day at meeting in Vienna on Nov. 27.
The rout may continue to $35 a barrel in the “near term” because both oil supply and demand will have a delayed reaction to falling prices, Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America in New York, said in a report on Jan. 6.
The U.S. is pumping oil at the fastest pace in more than three decades, helped by a drilling boom that’s unlocked supplies from shale formations including the Eagle Ford in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota. U.S. output expanded to 9.14 million barrels a day in the week ended Dec. 12, the most since at least 1983, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Reducing Investment
With Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations no longer fine-tuning supply, reductions in investment in new production will be the instrument for removing excess output, Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research in New York at Goldman said in a report on Jan. 11. This means the collapse will be deeper and the recovery slower than in previous slumps, he said.
Operating cash costs for many non-OPEC projects are below $40 a barrel and some producers will be able to keep going because they have locked in forward prices, or are supported by tax breaks or weaker domestic currencies, said Blanch, who on Nov. 27 predicted that WTI, then above $70 a barrel, could plunge to $50. An increase in demand in response to lower prices will take about six months, he said.
“An impatient oil market, wanting to see production adjustments as soon as possible, could push WTI oil prices to $40 a barrel,” Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS AG in Zurich, said by e-mail yesterday. Investment “cutbacks and less drilling activity are required to see a stall in North American supply growth. This is unlikely to happen in a meaningful way before the second half,” he said.
Cutting Supply
While U.S. drilling activity has slowed down in response to the price plunge, it will take months for that to translate into lower supplies, according to Societe Generale’s Wittner. Rigs seeking oil in the U.S. decreased by 61 to 1,421, Baker Hughes Inc. said Jan. 9. That’s the largest drop since February 1991.
“Rig counts are coming down, so it is happening the way it’s supposed to happen,” Wittner said. “But it’s going to take a while to see an impact on shale oil.”
A seasonal lull in demand this quarter will add to the downward pressure from brimming inventories, pushing down prices as much as another $10 a barrel, Amrita Sen, chief analyst at London-based consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio’s “Surveillance” on Jan. 12.
“There is likely to be another leg lower for prices,” said Sen. “I wouldn’t rule out a peek into the $30s.”

http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/22/news...uction/?iid=EL

that's old news.......

Good morning guys, so i am currently short since yesterday have opened several shorts around 46 my stop loss is at 47 maybe i'll move it at their opening price i am targeting 42$ but might change it to 40 if it goes well

☀️Gooooood Morning!
Back in North American time for a little while until back to the land of the rising sun🇯🇵
3 million + in inventory oil yet no outrageous effects beside a temporary 60-70 pip plunge and recover. Will this bounce make it back up to the weeks beginning of 48.1? and than some before we slide down some more towards 40?
Sort of looks like the slide from 60-50... Time will tell ⏳

I've read somewhere that wall St. Will trip out after we get under 40... Like 2008.. 😱
Global glut my ass, the world goes through 90 million barrels a day, the "glut" is only a couple million barrels per day extra! 😜
Perceivable to assume it wouldn't take much to kick start the bull pricing ⤴︎

if you doubt in fundamental reasons of oil decline take a look at below chart. US hits another record of Oil production in January, over 9M barrels per day