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Trading the 'FAKE or BREAK'

  • #261
  • Dec 29, 2014 3:52pm Dec 29, 2014 3:52pm
SO FAR....2132 is our next breaky on EU, you will have to go way back to find out why. remember these can act as support too, i find these are a nice place to take a bit profit and move to BE.
  • #262
  • Dec 30, 2014 12:32am Dec 30, 2014 12:32am
2132 is the previous low (support) in the monthly view (august 2012)??

a little doubt at .2132 went down to .2124 and go up, great prediction, new fake line on EU .2208

Note to me: Go back an test in all timeframes SR
  • #263
  • Edited 1:25pm Dec 31, 2014 1:10pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting kraven
SO FAR....2132 is our next breaky on EU, you will have to go way back to find out why. remember these can act as support too, i find these are a nice place to take a bit profit and move to BE.
well EU bounced right off and returned to break through to stop at the next RN 2100 (missed it)
nice fakey on GA above 9015 (missed it)
jpy pairs have continued with the trend

.......2 i did get in..

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Happy new year
  • #264
  • Edited 1:05pm Jan 2, 2015 12:49pm | Edited 1:05pm
Hope everyone had a happy new year


back to trading.....

I've mentioned a number of times that January is statistically the weakest month for GBP, EURO and the CHF , no reason to doubt this year will not be the same!


busy day today with poor UK manufacturing data, Draghi comments and ISM data.


EG hit RN target for +75 and +35, Gchf did the same for +87 (From the 2 pics in last post), bit of luck before data hit.

EU: my entry at 1.235 hit +296 TP, then got multiple entires as it broke pending sell orders under 2122 (#post 261) and the next breaky at 2038. ALL trades to BE

GU: still had sells from 5584 and 5541 (up 215 and 260 now). added sells on new breakys at low 5487 and the next breaky line at 5419 (all the way from 28/8/2013). ALL trades to BE

UC: my entry from 1506 hit +200 TP, and my pending buy order from 1675 (post #254) eventualy got triggered as did the next breaky at 1716

I must have missed some news regarding the NZ? Still holding the entries from the pic in post #250. Once again looking good however it's been a seesaw ride so this time i'm moving them to BE and may even take some profit as the 'Gap' that appeared will likely get closed once after hols full market trading begins.....infact i just closed the best one for +130.

Bad news on the GJ, after running my 3 entries back into profit the GBP mark down has now made them all negative again. In hindsight i should have moved to BE. UJ trades faring well.
  • #265
  • Jan 2, 2015 1:19pm Jan 2, 2015 1:19pm
One thing i like about doing a journal is it gives me a chance to read what i've done and what I'm truly thinking...and I Just read my post back. The bit about 'gaps' closing and 'full trading starting next week' has give me the jitters so i've closed off my EU trades at 2122 and 2038 for a combined +140 (we are at a big 1.2000 RN and we have a gap yet to be closed).

Took +80 off GU closed 5419 trade. nearing RN and RSI now oversold (see pic). CURRENTLY the next breaky is all the way near 1.5200!

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nice way to start the year.
  • #266
  • Jan 8, 2015 1:33am Jan 8, 2015 1:33am
"
Quoting kraven
One thing i like about doing a journal is it gives me a chance to read what i've done and what I'm truly thinking...and I Just read my post back. The bit about 'gaps' closing and 'full trading starting next week' has give me the jitters so i've closed off my EU trades at 2122 and 2038 for a combined +140 (we are at a big 1.2000 RN and we have a gap yet to be closed). Took +80 off GU closed 5419 trade. nearing RN and RSI now oversold (see pic). CURRENTLY the next breaky is all the way near 1.5200! {image} nice way to start the year.
"

nice work kraven...subscribed.............
  • #267
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:54am Jan 13, 2015 7:54am
the latest MT4 platform giving me problems (as always). Really need to think about updating my pc...anyway took it easy last week so not much trading

been trading mainly heavy trending pairs at this moment like EU, GU, UC etc..I still have a number of UJ bets running some in the red and some in the green, and some GJ bets which are in the red right now (all small positions), i'm only likely to add to UJ on weakness.

continued to enter UC on breakouts, currently in at 1895, 1815, 1679
jumped the gun and just sold AN on fakey
Entered GChf on breaky at 5425 only targeting recent high 5516 as RSI is overbought
watching for breaky on EU at low

keeping an eye on a risky GA buy on break above 86500 target 1.8830
  • #268
  • Jan 14, 2015 6:21am Jan 14, 2015 6:21am
Quoting kraven
the latest MT4 platform giving me problems (as always). Really need to think about updating my pc...anyway took it easy last week so not much trading been trading mainly heavy trending pairs at this moment like EU, GU, UC etc..I still have a number of UJ bets running some in the red and some in the green, and some GJ bets which are in the red right now (all small positions), i'm only likely to add to UJ on weakness. continued to enter UC on breakouts, currently in at 1895, 1815, 1679 jumped the gun and just sold AN on fakey Entered GChf on breaky...
still in AN sell
GChf hit TP for +100
entered buy in GA.
  • #269
  • Jan 15, 2015 7:09am Jan 15, 2015 7:09am
some big interesting spikes right now. bad data out of US, Swiss no longer propping up Euro/Chf at 1.20.
  • #270
  • Jan 15, 2015 12:32pm Jan 15, 2015 12:32pm
Funny thing trading. one minute it all looks bad (or good) next thing, out of the blue news comes out and it all looks good (or bad). doesn't matter how good you are at reading charts, or what your indicators might be telling you, it's news that drives the markets. seems to have workout ok for me

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still 2 chf/jpy running

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anyway....got a fakey pending entry on GU at 52542, still have one running from 5540 will look to take over +500 pips at around 1.5000 area

also my 1740 entry on EU nows looks a lot healthier

my main concerns are the jpy resilience against the GBP and USD. still have a few trades running on both of these
  • #271
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:55am Jan 16, 2015 1:55am
"
Quoting kraven
I believe every trader, no matter what system they use should bear in mind past data. I know the past can't be relied on to predict the future. However we have little else to go on unless your a psychic and have a crystal ball. the system i use here looks at the recent trend based on past data and SR lines based on past data. One other past statistic I look at is seasonal trends. Most of the info I look at is currencies/us dollar, and this is what its telling me: EU: i have a down trend...
"

Hello kraven....yesterday was a crazy one in the market......may i ask what data precisely you talk about..........
  • #272
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:04am Jan 16, 2015 2:04am
seems you use limit orders alot...may i ask how you use them.....and also you breakout trade much...dont you get scared it might turn out to be a fakey...or do you have a way of verifying it wont be one...........thanks in advance......
  • #273
  • Jan 16, 2015 11:39am Jan 16, 2015 11:39am
Quoting carbonado
"{quote}" Hello kraven....yesterday was a crazy one in the market......may i ask what data precisely you talk about..........
basicaly i had just read some post about past data not being reliable, however everything we go by when charting is past data (eg.. SR, indicators..fake areas and break areas are past data.. etc)

I prefer to here and trading however it is not always possible so i use pending orders. Sure i get caught out on a few, no system is perfect. But as long as i see a strong trend, stay current with most news and make sure i have plenty of margin, then most of the times thing work out.
  • #274
  • Jan 18, 2015 1:53pm Jan 18, 2015 1:53pm
FXCM alive or dead??

I've mentioned in this journal that i have 4 accounts, I separate them by the types of trades i put on commodities, forex, stocks etc..

one of the accounts (the one i share on here) is with FXCM and by now everyone will be aware that they have been crushed by the Swiss move. I have had this account for 4 months and have increased it by 70% so far. Anyway on friday i tried several times to get my FXCM platform work, however i couldn't log in or it just froze (missing several good entries might i add).

It appear FXCM have been bailed out and my platform for now appear to be working, but this leaves a bad taste in the mouth. although i was not able to access my account TP were being hit and closed.

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next week i might close my account, pocket 3k and open a new 5K one some where else. this will take time so i may open a demo with ironfx or tickmill (2 brokers i'd like to try)
  • #275
  • Jan 18, 2015 1:59pm Jan 18, 2015 1:59pm
hi Kraven,

when are you going to upload the pdf in your first post ?
  • #276
  • Jan 19, 2015 5:38am Jan 19, 2015 5:38am
Quoting kraven
FXCM alive or dead?? I've mentioned in this journal that i have 4 accounts, I separate them by the types of trades i put on commodities, forex, stocks etc.. one of the accounts (the one i share on here) is with FXCM and by now everyone will be aware that they have been crushed by the Swiss move. I have had this account for 4 months and have increased it by 70% so far. Anyway on friday i tried several times to get my FXCM platform work, however i couldn't log in or it just froze (missing several good entries might i add). It appear FXCM have been...
They are still on the balance. However it gonna be very shaky period for them and I wouldn't expose my money to such risk with a broker which just recovered from a serious blow..
  • #277
  • Jan 19, 2015 11:11am Jan 19, 2015 11:11am
Quoting leebsurag
{quote} They are still on the balance. However it gonna be very shaky period for them and I wouldn't expose my money to such risk with a broker which just recovered from a serious blow..
Exactly. I almost gave up trading several times because I always feel traders are at the mercy of their brokers. For example I was trading Ruble with FXCM and making some good profits, next my bets were not going through. I once had an account with the spread-betting firm IG index. One day i went on to find a large sell order had been placed on Galaxosmithkline without my consent. This triggered several winning bets to get margin called. I complained and although they did not admit blame, they reimburse my funds to the point before i placed all the winning trades. So in essence I was down all my winnings.
  • #278
  • Jan 19, 2015 11:12am Jan 19, 2015 11:12am
Quoting bradu
hi Kraven, when are you going to upload the pdf in your first post ?
Click on the paperclip at the top and you'll find it
  • #279
  • Edited 2:41pm Aug 20, 2015 2:30pm | Edited 2:41pm
It's been a long time since i posted on this thread (due to lack of time) but I thought it was time to breath some life into it.

i've been travelling around a lot in the last 6 months (still am) and have altered my entries slightly (using more pending orders) but the 'fakeout' principle remains the same. The main thing is my win ratio and R:R is still good.

I'm currently in a number of trades

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Nearing TP for +268, will be buying soon?

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Currently down and against trend so may hedge?

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I set up a trade manager but messed up and missed my first TP at 2.13 (+120) to make it a free bet

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took TP1 for +87 so if it hits stops i'm still ok

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Took TP1 for +60 so if it hits sop i'm still ok

AUD/CHF sold 72500, just missed my target of .70000 (since june 8th this is the 3rd time ive been in this trade)


LOOKING AT

Eur/Au sell (possibly around 1.5288)
Eur/Jpy sell
Eur/US sell (if it reaches 1.1300 or back under .1200)
Eur/Gbp sell
Us/Jpy buy (at around 123.00 or 122...i'll place a small order at both)
  • #280
  • Aug 20, 2015 8:10pm Aug 20, 2015 8:10pm
Hi Kraven,

Didn't know you had a journal and happy to see that you've started it up again.

I'll take the time over the weekend to have a read through and will be looking
forward to more posts from you.

Cheers

Sunny
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
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