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  • #940,301
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:44pm Dec 2, 2014 9:44pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Bears and bulls are both waiting for a breakout, but probability favours people in short positions because of the underlying major bear trend. probability of a lower low created is higher than a higher high.
breaking 1.275x will confirm a trend change..
  • #940,302
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:45pm Dec 2, 2014 9:45pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} AUDUSD Looking for rejection at 0.8558 .707 Ret H4 + WPP for Sell with target 0.8390 1.618 Ext D1 + H4 + MS1. {image}
AUDUSD
Pattern completed, good place to take some chips off the table, I will be also looking for signs of reversal here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud d1.png Size: 158 KB
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  • #940,303
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:47pm Dec 2, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Bears and bulls are both waiting for a breakout, but probability favours people in short positions because of the underlying major bear trend. probability of a lower low created is higher than a higher high.
Bullish breakout is far away from current level (~2500). Bull could've break bearish UTL which was just few pips behind. It didn't do so because it will create new unnecessary bearish TL if Draghi get rid of baby bull.
Your major bear trend needs at least one bullish candle in monthly TF. If Draghi fail to deliver more sell off, December may be that bullish candle. As I told you, monthly TF always slow.
So this is where both bear and bull should calm or bear can try. For bear, where you see breakout? There is no breakout level until we see a green candle in bigger line which is monthly TF. What breakout you see is in weekly TF that monthly TF can take out anytime if the rally starts.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #940,304
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:48pm Dec 2, 2014 9:48pm
Quoting mond33
{quote} breaking 1.275x will confirm a trend change..
If it will break someone will lost almost 600 million euros, there is a big option there that will expire later today.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #940,305
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:50pm Dec 2, 2014 9:50pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} AUDUSD Pattern completed, good place to take some chips off the table, I will be also looking for signs of reversal here. {image}
I have said the other day in AUDUSD thread, the Aussie should be sold any time given the technical opportunity.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #940,306
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:50pm Dec 2, 2014 9:50pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} AUDUSD Pattern completed, good place to take some chips off the table, I will be also looking for signs of reversal here. {image}
i actually have 0.8350 as the potential support... but looking at Weekly chart and conducting the ABCD pattern, D still has a long way to go to complete...
A is at 0.9380, B is at 0.8650, C is at 0.89...
if AB=CD boy oh boy....
0.9380-0.8650= 730 pips, 0.8900-730 pips = 0.8170.....
and current fundamentals does suggest AUDUSD could reach there... soooo ill be shorting on pullbacks thats for sure....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #940,307
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:53pm Dec 2, 2014 9:53pm
Ruble will be the biggest looser by the end of this year and probably 2015
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #940,308
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:53pm Dec 2, 2014 9:53pm
Quoting forexings
Ruble will be the biggest looser by the end of this year and probably 2015
Watch your mouth, I am short USDRUB lol
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #940,309
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:56pm Dec 2, 2014 9:56pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} Watch your mouth, I am short USDRUB lol
Save oil before shorting it. lol
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #940,310
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:56pm Dec 2, 2014 9:56pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} Watch your mouth, I am short USDRUB lol
why.... good god when you short the USDRUB... you cant just expect the RUB to appreciate in value....
you also need to look at the arguments of USD.... and shorting USDRUB is dangerous because you are betting against a dollar bull driven by possible interest rate hikes.... im not supportive of that trade USDRUB trade because thats literally a fundamental suicide....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #940,311
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:57pm Dec 2, 2014 9:57pm
big day today ha, lot of events and som wild runs
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #940,312
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:59pm Dec 2, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} why.... good god when you short the USDRUB... you cant just expect the RUB to appreciate in value.... you also need to look at the arguments of USD.... and shorting USDRUB is dangerous because you are betting against a dollar bull driven by possible interest rate hikes.... im not supportive of that trade USDRUB trade because thats literally a fundamental suicide....
I can argue that CBR is likely to intervene as it did a couple of days, Also, the 11 December meeting (CBR) may cause traders to downsize their exposure, which will hopefully take the air out of USDRUB. The other factor is capital control, which can be announced without any prior warning. There is also a decent interest at the rollover so hopefully I will make it despite the strong US Dollar.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #940,313
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:01pm Dec 2, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i actually have 0.8350 as the potential support... but looking at Weekly chart and conducting the ABCD pattern, D still has a long way to go to complete... A is at 0.9380, B is at 0.8650, C is at 0.89... if AB=CD boy oh boy.... 0.9380-0.8650= 730 pips, 0.8900-730 pips = 0.8170..... and current fundamentals does suggest AUDUSD could reach there... soooo ill be shorting on pullbacks thats for sure....
I have 0.76 target of ABCD W1 but one thing at the time, first we see if this ABCD on D1 is tradable, then we follow it to it's destination and then we short again in line with Weekly chart. I am taking some chips off the table and looking to profit from the other side.
If price breaks here most likely will visit 0.8297 before anything else.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aususd Weekly.png Size: 158 KB
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  • #940,314
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:13pm Dec 2, 2014 10:13pm
i'll keep long till break out lower confirm
http://justptc.byethost31.com/wp/wp-...2014/12/EU.png
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  • #940,315
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:19pm Dec 2, 2014 10:19pm
Quoting NewStart
i'll keep long till break out lower confirm {image}
and ill keep shorting with the trend until the trend is nullified....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #940,316
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:22pm Dec 2, 2014 10:22pm
Quoting NewStart
i'll keep long till break out lower confirm {image}
The chart resembles a possible formation of a descending triangle, which has a higher possibilities of a downside break and hence considered as bearish pattern.
Still would be prudent to wait for a decisive break below 1.2360-1.2350 support for an immediate downfall till 1.2240-30 support area.
  • #940,317
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:33pm Dec 2, 2014 10:33pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} I can argue that CBR is likely to intervene as it did a couple of days, Also, the 11 December meeting (CBR) may cause traders to downsize their exposure, which will hopefully take the air out of USDRUB. The other factor is capital control, which can be announced without any prior warning. There is also a decent interest at the rollover so hopefully I will make it despite the strong US Dollar.
CBR intervention is only gona downsize people's exposure on the RUB... but have you thought abouot the potential USD strength??

you cant just look at 1 side on a currency pair....
its called pair so you have to look at both currencies....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #940,318
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:52pm Dec 2, 2014 10:52pm
Breaking 1.20 without consolidation will make bullish MTF much weaker. 1.224x the key for bullish trend
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #940,319
  • Dec 2, 2014 11:04pm Dec 2, 2014 11:04pm
Quoting glitch86
Damn, broke my cardinal rule of not fighting the trend at 1.2439 and placed a long without a stop, so far my weeks profit is in the bin :/ Do you think I should hold for a bounce or cut my losses now ?
it depends how much capital you have to support drawdown. If you have enough capital you can martingale keeping your average price closer or between 30/50 ticks from price., to go in gain with the next bounce.
If you have not capital enough stop loss.
  • #940,320
  • Dec 2, 2014 11:16pm Dec 2, 2014 11:16pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} replied... dunno if you see the chart of the interbank quoted prices though. 23Nov low hit exactly to the pip at 1.2360 before bouncing back up to open 24thNov market
thanks.. 11/7/14 2357.5 for me, low
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