MGH System (Martingale Grid & Hedging) | Page 44 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Simply "grid" system, no hedge, no martingale 9 replies

ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies

Martingale, Reverse Martingale, Modified Martingale, Maths 1 reply

Simple grid manual system without martingale 8 replies

Grid, Burst Grid, Grid Risk and Grid Profit 1 reply

Attachments: MGH System (Martingale Grid & Hedging)
Exit Attachments

MGH System (Martingale Grid & Hedging)

  • #861
  • Edited 8:02am Nov 12, 2014 7:50am | Edited 8:02am
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} The problem with 0.01 lot is that it is hard to use small lot mulitpliers with it. For example: if using a 1.5x or a 0.5x multiplier with a 0.01 starting lot, the EA cannot open 0.015 lot or 0.005 lot positions, so the backtests would give very inaccurate results. With 0.1 lot starting lot any multiplier would work smoothly. In my opinion 0.1 lot/10k is the minimum account size. But anyway, it is only for TESTING purpose. Real llife application can be adjusted individually.
Hi Paracelsus
the starting lot is 0.02 no 0.01
I tried 0.1 baselot with several parameters (gridfactor,basket_tradeprofit,etc..) from january and all backtests have crashed
  • #862
  • Nov 12, 2014 8:21am Nov 12, 2014 8:21am
I have a doubt respect v4.1

-because 0.05 second lot used? gives better results?

-according standards rules, TP = grid size = 10 pips? With TP_grithfactor = 2 TP = 30 pips.

-which means "Basket take profit"?

very thanks!!
  • #863
  • Nov 12, 2014 8:44am Nov 12, 2014 8:44am
I apologize for the request that may seem trivial, but how do I install the EA in MT4 build 745? thanks
  • #864
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:30pm Nov 12, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting madscalp
{quote} Hi Paracelsus the starting lot is 0.02 no 0.01 I tried 0.1 baselot with several parameters (gridfactor,basket_tradeprofit,etc..) from january and all backtests have crashed
Probably because we are using different EAs... In my forward tests (and backtests) I use 10k with 0.1 start lots to make life simpler...

Forward test is still looking good with approx. 10% net profit over the past 13 days. Current Basket includes Batch2 and Batch3.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MGH 1112.jpg Size: 1,015 KB
  • #865
  • Edited 1:15pm Nov 12, 2014 1:05pm | Edited 1:15pm
With this system, we need a real backtest from several months to know if we can avoid the "death trade".
We'll know if your EA is safe when we see your backtests.
13 days is not enough to evaluate the safety.
Regards
  • #866
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:09pm Nov 12, 2014 1:09pm
Draw Order Arrows

Hi Paracelsus,

here a little tool only for you:

Because the EAs dont draw close arrows and trendlines between open and close, you can drop the "DrawOrderArrows" script in your charts.

To test this, you can open a new chart window for EURUSD and drop the script. Then can you drop in your trading chart.
The functions in the script can be added in every EA.

If OK, please post your charts with arrows (and trend lines)
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MGH Script_DrawOrderArrows.ex4   10 KB | 699 downloads
File Type: mq4 MGH Script_DrawOrderArrows.mq4   7 KB | 1,057 downloads
  • #867
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:20pm Nov 12, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting SwingMan
Draw Order Arrows Hi Paracelsus, here a little tool only for you: Because the EAs dont draw close arrows and trendlines between open and close, you can drop the "DrawOrderArrows" script in your charts. To test this, you can open a new chart window for EURUSD and drop the script. Then can you drop in your trading chart. The functions in the script can be added in every EA. If OK, please post your charts with arrows (and trend lines) {file} {file}
Thanks for the files, SwingMan!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MGH 1112_2.jpg Size: 1.0 MB
  • #868
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:35pm Nov 12, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting madscalp
With this system, we need a real backtest from several months to know if we can avoid the "death trade". We'll know if your EA is safe when we see your backtests. 13 days is not enough to evaluate the safety. Regards
Even 13 months backtests are not enough to assess the chance of a "Death Basket". As mentioned before, as per Kfx (the Author) with the current settings of the forward test the "Death Basket" is unavoidable.

So, in my next forward test the following changes will be implenented based on recommendations in this thread:

- Diversification between 10+ pairs by using "Super-Basket". (Can anyone suggest a group of at least "unrelated" or "loosly" related pairs?)
- Reducing the lot sizes of 2nd trades in each Batch.

Any further suggestions how to reduce the likelihood of a "Death Basket"?
  • #869
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:15pm Nov 12, 2014 2:15pm
Quoting Clipi
500€ 6 pairs (EU, GU, EG, EA, EJ, GJ) 0.01 lots 1 week = 40% http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Clipi/hedge/1066504
Whats configuration are you using in this EA? (version 3.1)

Default?

Thanks!
  • #870
  • Edited 7:08pm Nov 12, 2014 6:47pm | Edited 7:08pm
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} The problem with 0.01 lot is that it is hard to use small lot mulitpliers with it. For example: if using a 1.5x or a 0.5x multiplier with a 0.01 starting lot, the EA cannot open 0.015 lot or 0.005 lot positions, so the backtests would give very inaccurate results. With 0.1 lot starting lot any multiplier would work smoothly. In my opinion 0.1 lot/10k is the minimum account size. But anyway, it is only for TESTING purpose. Real llife application can be adjusted individually.
Understood.

As to your question about reducing risk of a "death trade":

1. What about the EA having a function that activates when MAs show a strong trend, and the EA then opens some scalping trades in the direction of the trend? This will: a) hedge the grid, b) increase margin when trailing stops close the trend scalp. Size could be say, 50% of current grid in DD...? Or x multiples of starting lots, or simply a fixed preset lot? Edit: this is a hedging EA, so just increase the sizes of the trades going in the direction of the trend?

2. I haven't yet had a chance to look at your EA here, but I hope your EA will abstain from opening new trades if the market breaks out rapidly ie. it will not open trades immediately one after another, but pause for say 60 seconds prior to opening a new trade.

We are talking of an exceptional market in the case of a death trade.

@ Clipi: Impressive results!
@ Swingman: Absolutely necessary addition to have! Nice one!

Edit: I might also add that Martingale factor is very important, since it has a compounding effect. I have tried systems using 1.5 (50% increase) and lowering them to 1.2 (20% increase) and still that was too much. Now I am working with x 1.01 (increase upon previous trade of only 1%). Just another thing to keep in mind in avoiding a death trade.
  • #871
  • Nov 12, 2014 10:42pm Nov 12, 2014 10:42pm
Quoting ochato
{quote} Whats configuration are you using in this EA? (version 3.1) Default? Thanks!
Defaut settings, but initial lot = 0.01
  • #872
  • Edited 2:36am Nov 13, 2014 2:09am | Edited 2:36am
Quoting bluepanther
{quote} Understood. As to your question about reducing risk of a "death trade": 1. What about the EA having a function that activates when MAs show a strong trend, and the EA then opens some scalping trades in the direction of the trend? This will: a) hedge the grid, b) increase margin when trailing stops close the trend scalp. Size could be say, 50% of current grid in DD...? Or x multiples of starting lots, or simply a fixed preset lot? Edit: this is a hedging EA, so just increase the sizes of the trades going in the direction of the trend? 2....
@BluePanther

1. "Just increase the sizes of the trades going in the direction of the trend? "when MAs show a strong trend" - Good thought, it is worth to look into it. The question: How would you quantify a strong trend by MA?

2. There is no "pause" in my version as the settings are designed so that the strategy would BENEFIT from very rapid market moves.
The key is that the size of the first hedging position should be larger than the combined lot size of the previous Batch. For example: If Batch1/Trade1 is 0.1 lot and Batch1/Trade2 os 0.05 lots (i.e. 0.15 lots combined), then Batch2/Trade1 (the first hedge) should be at least 0.2 lots. It means that the EA could close the Basket even with the largest vertical market move IN PROFIT and reset itself.
  • #873
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:35am Nov 13, 2014 2:35am
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} @BluePanther 1. "Just increase the sizes of the trades going in the direction of the trend? "when MAs show a strong trend" - Good thought, it is worth to look into it. The question: How would you quantify a strong trend by MA? 2. There is no "pause" in my version as the settings are designed so that the strategy would BENEFIT from very rapid market moves. The key is that the size of the first hedging position should be larger than the combined lot size of the previous Batch. For example: If Batch1/Trade1 is 0.1 lot and Batch1/Trade2 os 0.05...
1. Something like a 25 and 50 MA with a 20 bar count for example (depending on timeframe)?

2. Rapid movements (breakouts) could be a precursor to a long-term sentiment change, meaning the market will continue without reversing (hence my "pause" suggestion). Example: EURUSD May 2014 when it peaked and then sustained a huge fall. But sounds like you have a strategy with the hedge to counter this possibility.
  • #874
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:37am Nov 13, 2014 2:37am
Forget it, such a Grid oder Martingale or whatever

NEVER

works. It's a waste of time!

If it would be that easy, everyone would do it!
Forex is a losers game.
  • #875
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:40am Nov 13, 2014 2:40am
Quoting trader121
Forget it, such a Grid oder Martingale or whatever NEVER works. It's a waste of time! If it would be that easy, everyone would do it!
Please, allow me to remind you:

Quoting kfx
We all know that grids and martingales are dangerous, but please abstain from making comments debating whether these techniques are good or bad and focus on the system.

You all are welcome and feel free to writing your suggestions or critical.
  • #876
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:42am Nov 13, 2014 2:42am
Quoting bluepanther
{quote} 1. Something like a 25 and 50 MA with a 20 bar count for example (depending on timeframe)? 2. Rapid movements (breakouts) could be a precursor to a long-term sentiment change, meaning the market will continue without reversing (hence my "pause" suggestion). Example: EURUSD early 2014 when it peaked and then sustained a huge fall. But sounds like you have a strategy with the hedge to counter this possibility.
Being a Martingale-Grid-Hedge strategy any tweaking with the settings has strong RIPPLE EFFECT (i.e. chain reaction) which has to be considered seriously.

So if we "increase the sizes of the trades going in the direction of the trend" then with an unexpectd reversal of the "strong trend" the NEXT Hedge Batch and all subsequent Hedge Batches HAVE TO BE exponentially larger as one of the core principles of the strategy is that from Batch2 (hedge) each further hedges are hedged, then re-hedged and again re-hedged: until Global TP or the "Death Trade".
  • #877
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:52am Nov 13, 2014 2:52am
Quoting trader121
Forget it, such a Grid oder Martingale or whatever NEVER works. It's a waste of time! If it would be that easy, everyone would do it!
@Trader121

Who said that it was easy...? Your statement of "NEVER" reminds me of Charles H. Duell who was the Commissioner of US Patent Office in 1899.

Mr. Deull's most famous attributed utterance is that "everything that can be invented has been invented..."

Yeah... I guess he did not trade from his iPad via broadband satellite connection from his yacht cruising the Caribbeans...
  • #878
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:54am Nov 13, 2014 2:54am
Quoting Paracelsus
{quote} Being a Martingale-Grid-Hedge strategy any tweaking with the settings has strong RIPPLE EFFECT (i.e. chain reaction) which has to be considered seriously. So if we "increase the sizes of the trades going in the direction of the trend" then with an unexpectd reversal of the "strong trend" the NEXT Hedge Batch and all subsequent Hedge Batches HAVE TO BE exponentially larger as one of the core principles of the strategy is that from Batch2 (hedge) each further hedges are hedged, then re-hedged and again re-hedged: until Global TP or the "Death...
Understood. Compounding effect. In addition, the hedge on a hedge can negate profits on the original batch.

For clarification, my suggestion is simply a one-off order with trailing stop. If:
a) market continues its strong move, the order stays open until closed on reversal.
b) market reverses soon after, the order is closed for a possible loss but that is the cost of insurance. Let us assume the market then continues its strong move: the EA can then repeat assessment using MAs, and determine if necessary to open "insurance trade" again.

The possibility is that the market may have entered a consolidation, where the MAs may not trigger the insurance trade again, and the DD grid will remain open since there is insufficient reversal. Then the market will continue on... (and MC the account).
  • #879
  • Nov 13, 2014 4:46am Nov 13, 2014 4:46am
Hi SwingMan!!.

Is any possibility that can you share mq4 file of 3.1 version?
I would like to try to change the lot multiple size.
Thanks
  • #880
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:56am Nov 13, 2014 9:56am
Quoting kaczucha11
Hi SwingMan!!. Is any possibility that can you share mq4 file of 3.1 version?
Sure, here is your file:
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MGH EA_v3.1.mq4   25 KB | 1,345 downloads
1 trader viewing now