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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #15,181
  • Nov 4, 2014 6:51am Nov 4, 2014 6:51am
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} very good advice... you are always spot on and speak facts!!... I'm new to trading also and as the game goes you learn by losing and picking up your loses but not by chasing them!!... This platform has really been an eye opener.
Exactly because facts are the only thing you can rely on.
  • #15,182
  • Edited 6:56am Nov 4, 2014 6:54am | Edited 6:56am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} It was a video clip that he's long since taken down. From what I hear he's not doing much trading anymore. He's gotten involved with politics in his hometown. Basically what I've summed up in the post below, is what he discussed. There honestly wasn't anything more than that. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post7844157 We'll never truly know just how the bankers/brokers really play us. But if you keep an eye out for it, you should be able to take at least 1 trade per week with that method. From what I gather,...
Another fact:

Noone knows what is going to happend next, not even bankster, brokers, [put anyone here] because if they would they wouldnt bother banking and brokering. Its like these guys selling their BS, why bothering when you can make shit tons of money? Its common sense.

Add: No offence here
Add(2): I could sell my stuff too, but dont want to bother myself with clients, bills, contacts [Put any effort here]
  • #15,183
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:17am Nov 4, 2014 7:17am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Example, multiply scenarios, if DP (2) 183.20/00 resistance and break of DP (3) 179.80/60. {image}
Hi FX-Ray,

I see some levels now. Weekly have level would like to see wick. Look UJ, completed similar pattern not too long ago. Let's see.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYDaily114.jpg Size: 207 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYMonthly114.jpg Size: 150 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #15,184
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:18am Nov 4, 2014 7:18am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi FX-Ray, I see some levels now. Weekly have level would like to see wick. Look UJ, completed similar pattern not too long ago. Let's see..... {image} {image}
I see, 183.34 right?
  • #15,185
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:19am Nov 4, 2014 7:19am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Now keep that words in mind and watch the picture. Some people might say impossible, its not like I know it, just a thought, idea, you name it. But assuming time is infinite, every event has a probablity of 100%. We just dont know when, hope im still alive then {image}
Well said. i hope so also.
  • #15,186
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:20am Nov 4, 2014 7:20am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} I see, 183.34 right?
That was fast, 182.343
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #15,187
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:22am Nov 4, 2014 7:22am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} That was fast, 182.343
Its dashy and my first thought was: If you add the actuall ATR(24h) to 182.20 you´ll get around that number, would be 182.376
Delta: 3.3 Pips
  • #15,188
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:29am Nov 4, 2014 7:29am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} SL has still been a huge problem for me. I do not want to use too wide stops in order to protect my account, then on the other hand it might happen that I get stopped out several times before I get to my target. This has ended in losses that could have become big profits instead before big moves. There is probably no answer to this like: Set a stop of 20 pips and go for it. A friend told me that I have to reenter as long as the setup is valid. He told me about one time when he got stopped out 8 or 10 times before his target was hit ... entry...
Practice identifying levels on the 15m chart.

Like today for example. I was on another site, where they were doing a live trading room. The news came out for the G/J, and some people were in on shorting it. One guy said he was going to take it down to about 180.700 or so. Just shy of the ADR. I told him to get out at 181.280-181.180. A few of them lol'ed. If they were here, I'd like to invite them to take a look back at the chart and see who's laughing now?

Just put that 181.280 line on your chart, and see it's significance. See how yesterday's london session couldn't break it. It tested it, pushed through it, but ultimately retracted.

Then take a look at today's asian session. See how it came down and touched it, but ran away. Then the breakout that happened after the asian session. It came down AGAIN to say hello, but ran away 15 minutes later.

Then the news came out. After a lot of trying, it finally pushed a candle body through that line, but still couldn't go past 181.180. Why is that level there too? Look back to London from the day before. Those attempts to break through 181.280, roughly touched 181.180. That line at 181.180 lines up perfectly with those attempts. PLUS, see how every candle stuck to 181.280 like glue. If a candle didn't close on that line, a wick sure held on to it. For 2 hours it held onto that line.

When you can identify a good level, and see it become stronger each time it resist more and more candles, you can spot a good entry. I was away for a bit having a bite to eat, so I missed going long at 181.380, but I did get in a bit later and manage to snag another 40ish pips for the day.

If you're focusing on day trading, and not identifying levels, you're going to get burned. Trust me, I know. I've burned over half of my account before I learned that lesson. Now that I've learned it, I took that trade today, and didn't even bother setting a SL on it. Because I saw that no amount of trading , or bad news, was going to break that level today. They tried with all their might, but couldn't pull it off.

When you see that strong level shaping up, and see the market start to move away from it, that trade is only going one way.

Your way.
  • #15,189
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:36am Nov 4, 2014 7:36am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Practice identifying levels on the 15m chart. Like today for example. I was on another site, where they were doing a live trading room. The news came out for the G/J, and some people were in on shorting it. One guy said he was going to take it down to about 180.700 or so. Just shy of the ADR. I told him to get out at 181.280-181.180. A few of them lol'ed. If they were here, I'd like to invite them to take a look back at the chart and see who's laughing now? Just put that 181.280 line on your chart, and see it's significance. See how...
This makes me laugh, nice post dude!
Do you work in advertisement if you dont mind me asking? You can be very convincing
Attached Image
  • #15,190
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:46am Nov 4, 2014 7:46am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Another fact: Noone knows what is going to happend next, not even bankster, brokers, [put anyone here] because if they would they wouldnt bother banking and brokering. Its like these guys selling their BS, why bothering when you can make shit tons of money? Its common sense. Add: No offence here Add(2): I could sell my stuff too, but dont want to bother myself with clients, bills, contacts [Put any effort here]
True, nobody has the ability to move it for a significant period of time, or see the future. That is true. That's not what I'm implying. But there are small windows where banks/brokers will push the market a bit to clear some traders' SL's, or fool traders into chasing a buy/sell, because they want to help move the market in the other direction. And sometimes those small windows of opportunity do pop up for retail traders that know how to spot them.

That's all I'm saying. No one institution can manipulate the markets for an extended period of time. But they can push it a bit, and get traders to chase the wrong direction, so they can start getting positions moving the opposite way where they will take their profit. That's the purpose of those zones. If it moves into one (especially if it moves quickly), there's a decent chance it's really just going to move the other way. Now it doesn't work all the time (example: yesterday's london session), but I have won more than I've lost trading it. So in my opinion, the whole bank/broker manipulation is a pretty valid claim.

Remember, the top FX banks are responsible for roughly 80% of all the trading in forex. The reason why they can make these small moves happen, is because they have millions upon millions of dollars to lay down on trades.

I have $3000.

It doesn't matter how much I pray. If I open a position with 2 lots going long, they open one with 200 going short. I lose.

I just wanted to clear up any confusion. They can't run things forever, but they can run it for short periods of time.

And no offense taken man. Feel free to speak your peace anytime. As one of your free clients, I'll always hear you out.
  • #15,191
  • Nov 4, 2014 8:00am Nov 4, 2014 8:00am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} This makes me laugh, nice post dude! Do you work in advertisement if you dont mind me asking? You can be very convincing {image}
Attached Image
  • #15,192
  • Nov 4, 2014 8:18am Nov 4, 2014 8:18am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} This makes me laugh, nice post dude! Do you work in advertisement if you dont mind me asking? You can be very convincing {image}
Lol, consider that picture saved!

I'm just trying to inspire the guy a bit. I know what it's like being in that kind of funk. Sometimes you just need to add another tool to the box, and have some faith in yourself again. The second part of that being the most difficult part to get though.
  • #15,193
  • Nov 4, 2014 8:19am Nov 4, 2014 8:19am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Practice identifying levels on the 15m chart. Like today for example. I was on another site, where they were doing a live trading room. The news came out for the G/J, and some people were in on shorting it. One guy said he was going to take it down to about 180.700 or so. Just shy of the ADR. I told him to get out at 181.280-181.180. A few of them lol'ed. If they were here, I'd like to invite them to take a look back at the chart and see who's laughing now? Just put that 181.280 line on your chart, and see it's significance. See how...
Hey 4x4 New guy, thanks for your time giving such an elaborated answer! I put the line on the chart and you are right that it is an important support area, I would rather say DEMAND area! 1.812 is an important Fib level for me that has nearly been touched on that occassion, but like magic was not totally reached! Btw I think trying out the 15 min. chart more intraday might not be such a bad idea. It gives fast signals but then you can spot levels easier than on 5 min. The only thing I disagree on with you: I will always put a SL after losing my first two accounts (not very big, but still painful enough). Good luck, catch you later!
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,194
  • Nov 4, 2014 9:23am Nov 4, 2014 9:23am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hi IveGotQuads, I had a similair thought this morning: lower highs and kind of bearish candles on 5 minute chart - shorted a bit too early before the shakeout but could recover until now. But I see a gap on the 5 minute chart at 181.68! Could be that this will be filled before any further down move!
yeah unfortunately it was temporary, I did manage to scoop about 50 pips when I sold @ 181.82 and Tp @ 181.329 after seeing the reversal plus before the US session. The most important thing is participation and position, thats what im trying to build at the moment. In retrospect ill rather build a long position rather than a short. going short should only be temporary right now
  • #15,195
  • Nov 4, 2014 9:29am Nov 4, 2014 9:29am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hey 4x4 New guy, thanks for your time giving such an elaborated answer! I put the line on the chart and you are right that it is an important support area, I would rather say DEMAND area! 1.812 is an important Fib level for me that has nearly been touched on that occassion, but like magic was not totally reached! Btw I think trying out the 15 min. chart more intraday might not be such a bad idea. It gives fast signals but then you can spot levels easier than on 5 min. The only thing I disagree on with you: I will always put a SL after...
Fair enough. I do use SL's most times, but this was a time when I would use a mental stop as opposed to an automatic one. The way the market was behaving around that level gave me reason to believe that a price activated stop would do more harm than good. Placing it too close, or following a traditional 2:1 reward/risk setup would have actually made me lose that trade, considering where I was entering.

But hey man, as long as you win trades, your system is fine. Just remember one thing about stops. They're not there to limit your losses. They're there to get you out of trades when the market shows an unexpected behavior (thanks IveGotQuads). If you're feeling nervous, and hoping that a stop will save you, just don't enter the trade.

In fact, if nerves are getting to you, take a day or two (or the entire week) off, and just hit a mental reset. I didn't touch anything forex on the weekend, and have been doing great so far this week. When I let trading consume a lot of my free time, I tend to do poorly when trading resumes.
  • #15,196
  • Nov 4, 2014 11:09am Nov 4, 2014 11:09am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} yeah unfortunately it was temporary, I did manage to scoop about 50 pips when I sold @ 181.82 and Tp @ 181.329 after seeing the reversal plus before the US session. The most important thing is participation and position, thats what im trying to build at the moment. In retrospect ill rather build a long position rather than a short. going short should only be temporary right now
Nothing to add
  • #15,197
  • Nov 4, 2014 12:09pm Nov 4, 2014 12:09pm
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Fair enough. I do use SL's most times, but this was a time when I would use a mental stop as opposed to an automatic one. The way the market was behaving around that level gave me reason to believe that a price activated stop would do more harm than good. Placing it too close, or following a traditional 2:1 reward/risk setup would have actually made me lose that trade, considering where I was entering. But hey man, as long as you win trades, your system is fine. Just remember one thing about stops. They're not there to limit your losses....
Good point. You need off days for sure, otherwise the market can consume you. Mental stops did not work for me. I was waking up at night, checking how my position was doing. If I have a sl that gets me out before the trade is not justifiable by reasonable MM. So I can sleep and do not have to worry with a totally damaged account. Well, anybody thinks differently about that ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,198
  • Nov 4, 2014 12:29pm Nov 4, 2014 12:29pm
Im @ work and salivating at this Classic inside bar forming in the Gbp/Jpy daily (cant post diagram but check it)... what ever position I get into tomorrow I will definitely be holding it to see how far it goes. There is a very high probability that a direction will be implemented, having an open take-profit target with a breakeven position might not be a bad idea tomorrow. As usual the market will decide direction, we can only follow.
  • #15,199
  • Nov 4, 2014 2:56pm Nov 4, 2014 2:56pm
What do you guys think about what the news tonight? BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
  • #15,200
  • Nov 4, 2014 8:06pm Nov 4, 2014 8:06pm
Quoting Charlay321
What do you guys think about what the news tonight? BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
What market recacts really matters. I'm starting to worry about GJ, which may rise up higher without correction.
Believe what you see instead of what you think!
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