USD/JPY Discussion

train is unstopable

the higher and faster this climbs, the more i feel like a nice BIG snapback is lurking, before continuing up.

i will continue buying on pullbacks till 110.50 .. then lets see what happens...

currently long at 108.85



i dont know how people short this pair, its like a guessing game to me(waiting for the big drop), unless you are scalping - then it works beautifully off of consolidation and resistance points

No, my guess is that this is a mix of bullish trends for the USD/JP and trader fueled movement. We know all the data points to a strong dolla, and Japan's BOJ Kuroda often repeated that he didn't view the 110 mark as necessarily a bad thing for the yen. Thus, when the forex market opened up after the weekend with no drop in its rate but instead a small increase, that gave the opportunity for many individuals such as myself to engage in scalping. The bulls are now eager to test the last week's resistance, given that we seem to have now established a higher support for the start.

In all likelyhood, this'll hit around the 109.4~109.5 resistance before coming down a bit for a retracement. The intraday retracement shouldn't go below 108.6 (though my money's on 109) given the opening price, but I can't say the same for more prolonged retracements.

For all you scalpers out there, start scalping. Its a beautiful thing when you wake up to the smell of small but profitable trades.

@Liam0530, do you think there's a chance that the USD/JPY will retrace a bit below 109? Specifically, will it stop at around 108.6-7? I'd like to hope for a bigger reload, but given the superiority of the USD in recent times....I have a feeling I'm going to regret not buying a bit more at the 108.5/108.6 mark.

@vermillion i think there is a nice support at around 108.63 . i have buy order there waiting in case of a pullback to that price level..... it should continue its uptrend from there imo

it should not go that much lower, ill buy around 108.50 if it hits that level, anything lower then 108.00 ill be wary, if it drops below 107.5 im OUT! lol

Sellers already!? Looks like it might be a selling asian session .. 9pm ET WILL SHOW ALOT

Usd/jpy remain trading below 110 level, there is still ''buying'' opportunity for this pair.

My stop is always the lowest point of 2 previous higher candles. If they are too close I then take 1/2 of a 3rd. If too far, then I take 1/2 of the 2nd instead. So its always between 1.5 and 2.5 previous candles. Each day I check and move it. It is marked as the thick black line in my pics. I found in the past that in good momentum and trend it is enough for price to move around and keep me in the market. A serious retrace and I am out and then look for signs of continuation to rejoin or new trend to jump on.

Here is this mornings chart with the stop moved again. The previous 2 candles with new highs put the stop quite close so I will check it a couple of times today and make a judgement call whether or not to leave it in place or lower it depending on my MTF Stoch at the bottom. As long as the long term Stoch (black) stays above the 76 fib line, the momentum for long is still there and it should continue upwards.

Japan signals second tax hike will go ahead

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b86ac...#axzz3DzrDUN1s

This link is useless unless you pay for a subscription to read it. You selling subscriptions? lol

Apparently, we have sellers already in the asian market. Then again, a lot of Japanese businesses aren't happy with the rate of the yen's depreciation, and given Japan's importance in the asian hours, there's some food for thought there. It might explain why there's a clear bullish trend but a stalling of prices at 109 with a small decline.

I expect it'll improve during the New York hours. Now the main two questions for me are these: how much will the asian market allow the USD/JPY to fall, and when should you reload longs? A good option would be the last major intraday support (around 108.6), but we'll have to wait and see. The decline is too quiet for me to hedge any bets.

There's around a 5 pip movement between each individual hill/valley in the 5 minute chart, but that's cutting it too close for comfort for any reliable scalping for me, given the amount of lots required to make a decent profit. I have a small long around 109, but other than that I'm just sitting back and waiting.

What are your thoughts?

L 108.89

thank you so much

Thanks for explaining in detail and very well narrating.
It is very logical, balanced and safer. You reminded my th method of Old Turkey from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, something similar.

I cant remember where I picked it up from but it was an old guy. Maybe his book so doesnt surprise me.

109.10 is a big bears vs bulls fight.. sheesh

Presents a good place to place another long order. At the top of the high today so far.

EJECT EJECT!

lmao stay patient, its doing what its supposed to..its the pullback, but i feel you, cuz i feel the same way LOL