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The similarity system

  • #7,801
  • Sep 10, 2014 10:22am Sep 10, 2014 10:22am
Quoting Thoughts
{quote}Gentleman, I honestly dont think you know how good you are.
Hey, thanks very much for your kind words.
You're right - that isn't my frame of mind even one iota.... I just want to help the crew who put in the hours and the struggle to internalise the principles that have helped turn my trading around. Just giving back, ya know?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,802
  • Sep 10, 2014 10:37am Sep 10, 2014 10:37am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} It's edging that way. I was a bit nervous about that spike up cos it blasted past 2930 and I had 2928 as a key midpoint level on the 4H.... was thinking it was gonna drag everything back up to 50-60. But thankfully it's easing its way down.... they must be pricing in the fact that CHF has to take a hit (SEE BELOW).... Euro valued more than Swissy now. But then.... how did this effect EURUSD? (short term, long term?) {image} {image}
I know it's from ZeroHedge but still a good picture of why DOLLAR is going from strength to strength.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-10/swiss-franc-tumbles-threats-nirp-coming-bern-next
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,803
  • Sep 10, 2014 10:40am Sep 10, 2014 10:40am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} This (yellow highlight) is what made me think bull trap... but the initial bars still got me sitting down when I was already sitting down, ya know?! LOL Anyways, looking for that 2897 break {image}

looking good so far. we should challenge 1.2897 in a bit
  • #7,804
  • Sep 10, 2014 11:25am Sep 10, 2014 11:25am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} looking good so far. we should challenge 1.2897 in a bit
seems like im becoming a prophet on eurusd. lol. great day usually all it takes is one 5minute candle to break a zone
  • #7,805
  • Sep 10, 2014 11:27am Sep 10, 2014 11:27am
we should retest 1.2897 then head for 1.2880
  • #7,806
  • Sep 10, 2014 11:28am Sep 10, 2014 11:28am
Quoting ephisi
we should retest 1.2897 then head for 1.2880
retested
  • #7,807
  • Sep 10, 2014 11:32am Sep 10, 2014 11:32am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} retested
Boom Shakalaka!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,808
  • Sep 10, 2014 11:34am Sep 10, 2014 11:34am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Boom Shakalaka!
lol, pleasant to your eyes i guess
  • #7,809
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:25pm Sep 10, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Short at 1.2955. Done for today
Quoting ephisi
{quote} eurusd may go down straight to 1.2880 or retrace first to 1.2920 levels before 1.2880. if my trade were a scalp, would have exited at 1.2900. and reentered scalp at 1.2920 if we get there

closed short at 1.2900. From my analysis. since we didn't break previous lows, we may have some bullish or range moves tomorrow before any bear. not sure. will decide tomorrow. 1.2860 and 1.2880 may not give way tomorrow.
  • #7,810
  • Edited 3:14pm Sep 10, 2014 2:55pm | Edited 3:14pm
I was out with work colleagues when I saw that 2883 was hit and I was too late to exit. I exited at 2904
The rejection going all the way back to 2917 is a sign for me or ranging and indecision.

The 4H tells me why. From a ZZBB perspective, the last swing was a bottom on the left of the Bollinger and it really needs a significant top (right circle) somewhere in this region to give all our shorts the good kick south.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H.png Size: 123 KB


Alternatively, a key failure of at the Bollinger Middle is just as good, but the fact that our last 4H candle before close with 2 more hours of trading will close back near the middle means that we'll go through the meat grinder again tomorrow.

Today revealed signs of big money positioning themselves. Dollar, Sterling, Swiss, Yen.... we had big swings today so caution on placement and stops is required for tomorrow with EUR news on the cards.

I'm looking at this range tomorrow: 2987 to 2951, with a TZ in the range of 2962 to 2957. There is also a level at 2995.
The 2995 and 2987 are the tops of TZs which have not been revisited in the 2900 to 2999 range.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1H.png Size: 153 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,811
  • Sep 10, 2014 3:08pm Sep 10, 2014 3:08pm
Quoting vlady1974
Today revealed signs of big money positioning themselves.
How do we judge that?
  • #7,812
  • Sep 10, 2014 3:37pm Sep 10, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting feline207
{quote} How do we judge that?
Well, I have learned to try and get a hold of news reports and bank reports from various sources. Whilst I don't understand it all, I scan for anything to do with EUR. This is how I keep my fundamentals up to date. Pro traders have always suggested to me that I do this and so I recommend it. I can't afford a news feed because I'm not a full-time trader yet, but it will pay to do so because FF Calendar does not reveal all the news or the meaning behind released numbers.

Secondly, we scan the news. We don't just take for granted FF's Calendar. Thankfully I have a subsription to Financial Times and a few other magazines like Forbes and Money. So when they started discussing Interest Rates back in May... it was no surprise when Bears started appearing at 1.39....

On a more technical level. Big spikes usually coincide with News or ...... a retail transaction? Absolutely not. It takes 100s of millions to move pips... how much more 80 pips to 100 pips? Today, the Swiss National Bank cut their interest rates... that was the retrace spike you were asking about. Could you have predicted it? No, I would't have. On a 15M it looked like a spike. On an 1H.. can you see it? If not, it means that it's been priced in - the spike caused the red pin tail on the hourly that also formed the TZ.

......

But I guess you're really asking..."How do we PREDICT big moves"
Well the main thing to recognise is that we've been sideways since the 5th September since we dropped 200 pips on the 4th September. When the market goes sideways.... money is positioning itself.... profit taking and/or more trades. If sellers win..... the price goes up just before there are no more sellers willing to sell at that price. If buyers win, price skews lower because all buyers want a discount until no buyer exists at that low price anymore.

The reason I like Bollinger ZZ method is it keeps allows me to keep track of the swings during the sideways movement. A short has to be a FAILURE AT THE TOP, not just a collapse at the bottom. A long is STRENGTH AT THE BOTTOM not just a collapse at the top. Also, EUR related news tends to be in the MORNING before USD related news comes in at 2PM GMT..... If EUR is to drop, it could be because there is more reason to buy DOLLAR.... who buys more dollars? Americans.... to fund their Stock Market investments.... risk off.

I know this is all background info... but I've taken about 6-8 months trying to piece this together. It's just something you have to do to understand the moves. Yes, the technicals are brilliant and beautiful but unless you have a full predictive model, we are relying on previous price ranges to be returned to. Fundamentals can help explain WHY and help judge "to what extent".
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,813
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:07pm Sep 10, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting vlady1974
I'm looking at this range tomorrow: 2987 to 2951, with a TZ in the range of 2962 to 2957. There is also a level at 2995. The 2995 and 2987 are the tops of TZs which have not been revisited in the 2900 to 2999 range. {image}
im watching these levels also. will plan my strategy for tomorrow. before london open,. im thinking retest of 1.2883 then up to 1.2962 possibly to 1.2988. will confirm before london open. but will most likely buy dips above 1.2960/80
  • #7,814
  • Edited 5:03pm Sep 10, 2014 4:50pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} im watching these levels also. will plan my strategy for tomorrow. before london open,. im thinking retest of 1.2883 then up to 1.2962 possibly to 1.2988. will confirm before london open. but will most likely buy dips above 1.2960/80
Yeah, my latest thinking is that the Weekly High is currently 2962, current price 2914.... that's not that far or insurmountable. A bounce could happen tomorrow or Friday and a decent price of 1.2808 seems like an ideal Demand Price. Using Fibs, that could be a retrace to 1.3260 or 1.3087 or 1.3400... throw in 3174 for good measure.

But if it doesn't bounce, then 1.2764 is well in the cards... so I'm with you, we'll have to see price action over Asian and Frankfurt sessions.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1W2.png Size: 115 KB


The 4H will have to lead the way... the TrendCounter shows an interesting pattern of printing zero's before a turn. I'm glad that this has printed on today's high. This is the one "indicator" that seems to nullify the possibility I mention above that 2962 will be breached. But looking back at previous swing tops only shows 1 breach which was just a higher top.... it still continued down. So a retrace is expected. 2943 seems like a good midway point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H.png Size: 129 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,815
  • Edited 6:26pm Sep 10, 2014 6:13pm | Edited 6:26pm
Quoting feline207
{quote} Yes 46 pips today, 1.2946 to 1.29 sharp. At least one good trade this week .. But I have reduced sizes after my last troubles from 1.3190 Edit: how would you comment that sharp retrace to 1.2934
Congratulation Feline
  • #7,816
  • Sep 10, 2014 6:15pm Sep 10, 2014 6:15pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey FreeFox, If you look at Page 1 of this thread, Eurusdd tries to explain the difference between the 2 indicators. I can't recall with precision, but it's how one calculates the stochastic and the number of bars and there's a slight difference between the two. Personally use r-V2. There is also a PDF attachment that I posted that explains the inherent logic of how Dissimilarity is calculated. I think the PDF is called Zones or something like that. It's in the attachment page.
Quoting feline207
{quote} I think the latest version shows also developing zones etc
Quoting vlady1974
I was out with work colleagues when I saw that 2883 was hit and I was too late to exit. I exited at 2904 The rejection going all the way back to 2917 is a sign for me or ranging and indecision. The 4H tells me why. From a ZZBB perspective, the last swing was a bottom on the left of the Bollinger and it really needs a significant top (right circle) somewhere in this region to give all our shorts the good kick south. {image} Alternatively, a key failure of at the Bollinger Middle is just as good, but the fact that our last 4H candle before close with 2 more hours of trading will close back near the middle means that we'll go through the meat grinder again tomorrow. Today revealed signs of big money positioning themselves. Dollar, Sterling, Swiss, Yen.... we had big swings today so caution on placement and stops is required for tomorrow with EUR news on the cards. I'm looking at this range tomorrow: 2987 to 2951, with a TZ in the range of 2962 to 2957. There is also a level at 2995. The 2995 and 2987 are the tops of TZs which have not been revisited in the 2900 to 2999 range. {image}

Thanks Vlady & Feline.
  • #7,817
  • Sep 10, 2014 6:22pm Sep 10, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting Paradiso88
Hi All, i have a short, with target of 2888. I think to day 2888 is the lowest, then it will goes up again. Tomorrow is the action day ... Edit: current price is also interesting, but 2888 is stronger ...
Quoting ephisi
we should retest 1.2897 then head for 1.2880
Wow wow wow ... the lowest is between yours, interesting concept
  • #7,818
  • Sep 10, 2014 6:26pm Sep 10, 2014 6:26pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Well, I have learned to try and get a hold of news reports and bank reports from various sources. Whilst I don't understand it all, I scan for anything to do with EUR. This is how I keep my fundamentals up to date. Pro traders have always suggested to me that I do this and so I recommend it. I can't afford a news feed because I'm not a full-time trader yet, but it will pay to do so because FF Calendar does not reveal all the news or the meaning behind released numbers. Secondly, we scan the news. We don't just take for granted FF's Calendar....
This is good information, thanks Vlady
  • #7,819
  • Edited 7:18pm Sep 10, 2014 6:50pm | Edited 7:18pm
Quoting vlady1974
...... Today revealed signs of big money positioning themselves. Dollar, Sterling, Swiss, Yen.... we had big swings today so caution on placement and stops is required for tomorrow with EUR news on the cards. I'm looking at this range tomorrow: 2987 to 2951, with a TZ in the range of 2962 to 2957. There is also a level at 2995. The 2995 and 2987 are the tops of TZs which have not been revisited in the 2900 to 2999 range. {image}
Thanks Vlady, great posts, i like it. I am looking at 2968 - 2975 as my top, then will sell from there .... this is not a call, just a beginner's probability.
  • #7,820
  • Sep 10, 2014 8:48pm Sep 10, 2014 8:48pm
Quoting probabilita
{quote} {quote} Wow wow wow ... the lowest is between yours, interesting concept
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