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The similarity system

  • #7,741
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:35am Sep 10, 2014 2:35am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Short at 2957
Great. We are in sync. Eurgbp attempting to drag eurusd along. Lets see if it fails? GBPUSD paused. Lets see how she contributes to eurusd when it moves
  • #7,742
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:45am Sep 10, 2014 2:45am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Great. We are in sync. Eurgbp attempting to drag eurusd along. Lets see if it fails? GBPUSD paused. Lets see how she contributes to eurusd when it moves
Japanese news affected EJ as well and UJ slumping so I can see the correlations.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,743
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:47am Sep 10, 2014 2:47am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Japanese news affected EJ as well and UJ slumping so I can see the correlations.
The correlations are really interesting. I will take time out to study them. Trying to decide if i should start applying my knowledge to trading other pairs. When there are no setups on eurusd

..i am also observing dissimilarity windows in price movements between the pairs. Notice that eurgbp gapped up this week, while gbpusd gapped down. The result was that eurusd had to adjust downwards towards 1.2870ish. Interesting
  • #7,744
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:53am Sep 10, 2014 2:53am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} The correlations are really interesting. I will take time out to study them. Trying to decide if i should start applying my knowledge to trading other pairs. When there are no setups on eurusd
Perhaps as an idea... since you're versed on EURUSD then you can take a view on EUR related pairs and Dollar related pairs... that will have either a positive or negative correlation. Eg. If EURUSD is flat but EUR news is bad.... EJ may actually move more and USDCHF or USDJPN may move.... but it's the "same" effect, selling Euro buying Dollar.... or whatever the case may be.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,745
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:54am Sep 10, 2014 2:54am
Okidoki, tat does it for me today. Its either eurusd hits my stop or runs towards 1.2750ish. Will popping from time to time. Ciao
  • #7,746
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:55am Sep 10, 2014 2:55am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} The correlations are really interesting. I will take time out to study them. Trying to decide if i should start applying my knowledge to trading other pairs. When there are no setups on eurusd ..i am also observing dissimilarity windows in price movements between the pairs. Notice that eurgbp gapped up this week, while gbpusd gapped down. The result was that eurusd had to adjust downwards towards 1.2870ish. Interesting
I've not looked at EURGBP but you make an excellent point - especially in light of the Scottish Independence vote.... not that this issue directly effects it, but news and hysteria does affect market perceptions.... hence why Sterling is dropping through the floor.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,747
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:55am Sep 10, 2014 2:55am
Quoting ephisi
Okidoki, tat does it for me today. Its either eurusd hits my stop or runs towards 1.2750ish. Will popping from time to time. Ciao
Have a good one! I think I'll do the same... got work to do! LOL
Ciao for now!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,748
  • Sep 10, 2014 2:59am Sep 10, 2014 2:59am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Perhaps as an idea... since you're versed on EURUSD then you can take a view on EUR related pairs and Dollar related pairs... that will have either a positive or negative correlation. Eg. If EURUSD is flat but EUR news is bad.... EJ may actually move more and USDCHF or USDJPN may move.... but it's the "same" effect, selling Euro buying Dollar.... or whatever the case may be.
Great idea mate. Taken not of the idea. Thats a good way to start
  • #7,749
  • Sep 10, 2014 3:02am Sep 10, 2014 3:02am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I've not looked at EURGBP but you make an excellent point - especially in light of the Scottish Independence vote.... not that this issue directly effects it, but news and hysteria does affect market perceptions.... hence why Sterling is dropping through the floor.
Price action on the pound will be volatile during or after the vote. We will have a big move
  • #7,750
  • Sep 10, 2014 3:52am Sep 10, 2014 3:52am
Sorry guy been busy this morning hope it going well I got out of my short at BE!

best of luck
  • #7,751
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:45am Sep 10, 2014 4:45am
Vlady 2 pms too you 39 from 41 on 1 min astounding myself
  • #7,752
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:54am Sep 10, 2014 4:54am
Quoting orid
Vlady 2 pms too you 39 from 41 on 1 min astounding myself
Hello orid, do you use TZ principles in conjunction with similarity on that account, or trade only dissimilarities?
  • #7,753
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:55am Sep 10, 2014 4:55am
Quoting orid
Vlady 2 pms too you 39 from 41 on 1 min astounding myself
You're on a roll! Lovin' it!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,754
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:55am Sep 10, 2014 4:55am
Guys, what do you think is a good target for today low. Where do you get out.
  • #7,755
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:00am Sep 10, 2014 5:00am
Quoting orid
Vlady 2 pms too you 39 from 41 on 1 min astounding myself
Watch out for when market starts to trend. Then you would have to adjust
  • #7,756
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:00am Sep 10, 2014 5:00am
Quoting feline207
{quote} Hello orid, do you use TZ principles in conjunction with similarity on that account, or trade only dissimilarities?
Hi feline I use most of the indicators supplied here divided too two separate charts including tz
Regards Orid peter
  • #7,757
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:02am Sep 10, 2014 5:02am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Watch out for when market starts to trend. Then you would have to adjust
that's the scary bit working on it
  • #7,758
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:04am Sep 10, 2014 5:04am
Quoting orid
{quote} that's the scary bit working on it
Lol, ive been down that road. Im sure you could use some filters
  • #7,759
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:04am Sep 10, 2014 5:04am
Quoting feline207
Guys, what do you think is a good target for today low. Where do you get out.
Hey Feline!!

Ephisi and I are short from mid 2950s. I'm at 57, I think Eph is at 54.
The target is always long range for me. 2764 at the minimum. So hence, why we've constantly been shorting every rally.

The overall trend (via Month and Weekly) is still down. The fundamentals are down. It's the daily's at the moment that are ticky because we are in a bit of a consolidation period until tomorrow..... so Sideways. We thought that below 2900 we could see the swing. But clearly not.

You can tell on a sideways market how big money want to play it by looking at how the flatness is skewed. Short is usually left bottom to right top before the final drop. We're now going for the retraces today to 2960... we thought 2920/2950... we were wrong, but look at the range there. It switched from 2860 and stopped at 2960. We're targeting 2760... so 200 pip move.... and I really believe more to come.

So in terms of risk... the key is to manage your balance. If you're underfunded, ie 50 pip SL is not affordable, then you need to get entries right on lower timeframees and really nail the S/R levels to not get stopped out. Probably better to aim for breakouts of support rather than swings (tops/bottoms).
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,760
  • Sep 10, 2014 5:05am Sep 10, 2014 5:05am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Watch out for when market starts to trend. Then you would have to adjust
Yeah, very good point. Trending markets has a different mindset to a Ranging market in my experience.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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