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  • #922,021
  • Sep 7, 2014 2:49am Sep 7, 2014 2:49am
Quoting barbones
{quote} Was not bad at all. The trend of unemployment it s down. August most of the time it s tricky. On FF Calendar you see only 1 number but in reality are more numbers to look for. Most important is drop in unemployment rise in average hourly earnings That number will not change the new trend in Euro. Beside that, remember all the good news of US from last month that don't move the market at that time and in the same time the bad news from UE who also don-t move the market. Statistic now, The trend that start in the first half of September stay...
Not everything is dark for euro data, we had a significant rebound in factory orders and industrial production for Germany. I don't forget Draghi's delivering but I notice we are down in a straight line for 2 months which is extreme on an historical basis. It is almost certain we will have a rebound, now it is about its size that im mixed.
  • #922,022
  • Sep 7, 2014 3:15am Sep 7, 2014 3:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} any of the ones with a target you can blindly take. for instance 3102 before 4146.. near 4146 but below, u could have shorted. just because you put a pending, dont mean u will get a enty. lets say you put one at 4140 and we had gotten there. your stop was 6 pips +.. lets say 10 pips.. your r/r was 104 or more... at 1% thats 103.8%.... few will go that close to 4146... and of those some will blow through especially yen pairs or gbp.. but they may still go back after especially if it was a news spike. if u manage to get one like this. you...
Okay, I get it, and this is setting things in perspective for me. Would you say these large %-trades are more of an icing on the cake, while bread and butter for you are trades in (lying) short-term? With a 1% position and 5-10 RR? This is maybe something I overlooked when I started to learn about mofus, I looked at the big swings and was always astonished when you said you already closed some position (there was one exchange we had about EA, and you almost always took the bird in the hand, I was looking for the one in the bush...).
Well, thanks again for you helpful replies, have a nice sunday.
Fail better.
  • #922,023
  • Sep 7, 2014 3:25am Sep 7, 2014 3:25am
Quoting Imaywin
{quote} Not everything is dark for euro data, we had a significant rebound in factory orders and industrial production for Germany. I don't forget Draghi's delivering but I notice we are down in a straight line for 2 months which is extreme on an historical basis. It is almost certain we will have a rebound, now it is about its size that im mixed.
In real life, you need a setup to enter against the trend. If you HOPE that here and there CAN BE a reversal point, you will enter to many times and psychologically you will be in bad shape. Where will be a reversal it s hard to say for everybody, not only for retail traders. even the banks have stop loss and is hit it. Nobody know with 100%. I m 100% sure that a reversal will be, but where, I don t know.
And, most important, a trend like this don't change with only 1 top down. Have to be at least 2 tops and new highs after that to see a change. That mean, you don't need to take first top Low. First top low most of the time it s not the end of the trend, They will try to push more in the direction of the trend and can create a new Low, even after that the trend will change to up trend.

For 20 40 pips a trade you need discipline and a profitable technical system. To trade on Fundamental for so small moves, it s illogical.
  • #922,024
  • Sep 7, 2014 4:50am Sep 7, 2014 4:50am
let me go and get my fork and knife because this bull meat is going to be tasty . #EU_bears_in_The_house
  • #922,025
  • Sep 7, 2014 5:14am Sep 7, 2014 5:14am
Quoting barbones
{quote} In real life, you need a setup to enter against the trend. If you HOPE that here and there CAN BE a reversal point, you will enter to many times and psychologically you will be in bad shape. Where will be a reversal it s hard to say for everybody, not only for retail traders. even the banks have stop loss and is hit it. Nobody know with 100%. I m 100% sure that a reversal will be, but where, I don t know. And, most important, a trend like this don't change with only 1 top down. Have to be at least 2 tops and new highs after that to see a...
So your reasoning is that if we are long we hope but if we are bears it is not hope. That is totally absurd.

I HOPE you will enjoy the rally because the more I study the pair the more Im certain it will go up and probably sharply.
  • #922,026
  • Sep 7, 2014 5:44am Sep 7, 2014 5:44am
Quoting barbones
{quote} Some proof?
http://www.forexfactory.com/elghoz
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #922,027
  • Edited 6:32am Sep 7, 2014 6:11am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/elghoz
That mean, Mario was trading on mt4. A free platform that it s proven to be very bad, and most important, a big boy from a Central Bank, (he was chief of Italy Central Bank before) will trade the market that he it create, with others Europe Centrals.
Very hard to believe that. We all know that first of all, if he really want to trade, he will not trade by himself and it s obvious why and second, even by absurd, he will trade, he will be Bloomberg Terminal or Reuters. And, above that, to came on FF and to expose his IP.... to many things that look like are from a very good comedy movie.

I read it most part of his posts and I cant say something about him, maybe you have other info but from his posts you can t say it s trying to hide his real value and to try to manipulate the market or even to try to have some good time on FF, making fun about us. It-s impossible to judge only from his posts.
  • #922,028
  • Edited 6:31am Sep 7, 2014 6:14am | Edited 6:31am
Quoting Imaywin
{quote} So your reasoning is that if we are long we hope but if we are bears it is not hope. That is totally absurd. I HOPE you will enjoy the rally because the more I study the pair the more I'm certain it will go up and probably sharply.
Have fun then. Be my guest on Buy Side. In the mean time I will Sell every new bull move from fundamental point of view, I will scalp in all direction from technical point of view and i hope both of us to be in profit.
  • #922,029
  • Sep 7, 2014 7:28am Sep 7, 2014 7:28am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} No need to get upset my friend. I read your post and thought you were a weekend trader therefore indicated something that I have observed. I don't know why you took it so harshly. You all here are my friends and I am no boss. I apologize if I have hurt your feelings in any way. I am really sorry and I mean it if you think my post was offensive. Take it easy buddy.
I think I'm falling in love
  • #922,030
  • Sep 7, 2014 8:49am Sep 7, 2014 8:49am
Quoting Karpa
{quote} I think I'm falling in love
he's a +100 years old man , choose your words wisely next time .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #922,031
  • Edited 9:27am Sep 7, 2014 8:56am | Edited 9:27am
Quoting Imaywin
{quote} So your reasoning is that if we are long we hope but if we are bears it is not hope. That is totally absurd. I HOPE you will enjoy the rally because the more I study the pair the more Im certain it will go up and probably sharply.
Imaywin
If You go LONG UMAYWIN, If go SHORT UWILLWIN, I think u already made your choice

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1410026947
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #922,032
  • Sep 7, 2014 9:09am Sep 7, 2014 9:09am
I think force of bearish kumo is very strong with resistance in 1.35941 & 1.37474. Anybody think that support will be 1.27517 as Apr13 or 1.21563 as Agt12 ?
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  • #922,033
  • Sep 7, 2014 9:15am Sep 7, 2014 9:15am
Quoting hoom
{quote} he's a +100 years old man , choose your words wisely next time .
I really trade mostly at weekends as I'm working 8-5. This is, I prepare my setups on weekends.
I didn't mean no harm by asking about the opening gap next week, maybe I was too much focused and chose the wrong time or place or subject.
Anyway, I'm not the type of noob writing my life here so I'll just keep quiet and wait to age.
Thanks for your advice, hoom

edit: I don't trade gaps ok..
  • #922,034
  • Sep 7, 2014 9:23am Sep 7, 2014 9:23am
Quoting Karpa
{quote} I really trade mostly at weekends as I'm working 8-5. I didn't mean no harm by asking about the opening gap next week, maybe I was too much focused and chose the wrong time or place or subject. Anyway, I'm not the type of noob writing my life here so I'll just keep quiet and wait to age. Thanks for your advice, hoom edit: I don't trade gaps ok..
I wasn't referring to your gap question and no one is judging you here , everything is cool
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #922,035
  • Sep 7, 2014 10:16am Sep 7, 2014 10:16am
Quoting hoom
{quote} I wasn't referring to your gap question and no one is judging you here , everything is cool
my bad thanks
  • #922,036
  • Sep 7, 2014 10:40am Sep 7, 2014 10:40am
Contributing after a long time. Imo, this is a monthly/weekly downtrend taking us all the way to 1.25 possibly below to 1.22 which will be a weekly support. This trend is expected to continue through the rest of the year or rate change whichever comes earlier. Any bull runup should be shorted with confidence because such a trend will hardly reverse without at least a double bottom on 4h or more likely higher tf, which makes for good rr. Irrespective, I am playing the dollar strength with usdjpy which has just broken weekly resistance and gives me more predictable moves. 2 cents fwiw.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #922,037
  • Edited 11:42am Sep 7, 2014 11:30am | Edited 11:42am
AUDUSD
Where is the best R:R to sell?
2 levels I think might prove good:
1- 0.9424, 1.414 Ext + .786 Ret last swing daily chart
2- 0.9450, 1.618 Ext + .786 Ret swing before last daily charts + Monthly Resistance 2
It's possible to scalp long as price creeps towards these levels as PA completes this ABCD 4 hours chart. Those entries should have really small stops, or you can wait for reaction/ rejection and then short it or even scale in scale out. Check new pivots, daily + weekly for further confluence.
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  • #922,038
  • Sep 7, 2014 12:23pm Sep 7, 2014 12:23pm
What a pity,

1.2935 at the moment. I was hoping it would go higher first to s it there.

Think I will wait for London or Tuesday
  • #922,039
  • Sep 7, 2014 12:41pm Sep 7, 2014 12:41pm
Quoting CandleStar
What a pity, 1.2935 at the moment. I was hoping it would go higher first to s it there. Think I will wait for London or Tuesday
was there a gap in EU?I was suspecting those guys will move against traders with gap. Where did you get the new position?
  • #922,040
  • Sep 7, 2014 12:52pm Sep 7, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting yaed
{quote} But if there is PA 100% of the time, there is trend 0% of the time? Or is it more like PA 75% of the time and then the candles goes away and there is trend for 25% of the time? In that case can you show me something like that on a chart where you did NOT remove the candles yourself? Better still, can you show me on a chart what you mean?
PA creates the trend. No price action no trend.
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