Probablility of hitting strike price? GO...

no opinions ?

Um, if you know anything about options theory, you may already know that the probabilities of the strike being hit have already been factored into how the options are priced. The only advantage you can truly have (beyond having better information about the underlying and better forecasting systems) is if you somehow have a better pricing formula than the provider - i.e. you use a different distribution or price off a more accurate curve, OR if you're confident enough in your own pricing engine and quick enough to spot and exploit instances where the provider has priced things wrongly to take advantage of mispricing on the sell side.

so I take it you have no idea who Tom Sosnoff is and what it is they offer at dough trading ?



"Sosnoff, who spent 10 years as an options-market maker at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, created Thinkorswim in 1999 and sold it this year (2009) to TD Ameritrade (AMTD)for more than $600 million."

Really informative video COGSx86...