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  • #915,601
  • Aug 8, 2014 6:56pm Aug 8, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Watching it because have EURAUD fresh short at 1.44679x stop at 1.44805 probably safe for now. Next week Euro Indices might pick up following US if nothing escalate re Ukraine.
i was considering a long 4328 till 4211... i dont trust china #s.. 2.3 is suspect to me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #915,602
  • Aug 8, 2014 8:08pm Aug 8, 2014 8:08pm
Quoting teddybomber
{quote} The last point on my chart is 1.34038.
thanks, you get a nickle for the last tick, 1.3036 here, falling on the close
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #915,603
  • Aug 8, 2014 9:31pm Aug 8, 2014 9:31pm
deleting my suggestions. most of us already know what's going on in the world.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #915,604
  • Edited Aug 9, 2014 12:12am Aug 8, 2014 10:33pm | Edited Aug 9, 2014 12:12am
in the few minutes, I am going to post a series of pictures to justify whay I called a problem at 1.33364. Two years ago, I managed to find a crude way to adapt a similarity principle to mt4 charts. I used 24 different timeframes and found out that the optimal numbers that can spot mis-pricing for the forex random process or processes governed by human emotions are 2, 3 and 4.

In the pictures below, a mis-pricing is identified when the low/high of a bar is not accompanied by an omega eventually in the direction of the market at that time. I will post pictures as far back as possible.

The underlying algorithm is very very complex because we have to check 24 timeframes, use all available bars in the history in each time frame, continuously calculate probabilities etc. There is nothing in the algoritm that places a value on 1.3390, I chose that number myself and that was my mistake. However, it does not affect that fact that we have a problem at 1.33364. You can decide for yourself, if it is worth considering.
  • #915,605
  • Aug 8, 2014 10:37pm Aug 8, 2014 10:37pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The low of the bar at A is lower than the previous two lows but did not lead to an omega. That is mis-pricing of the third degree because the next omega is at B; a contradiction.
  • #915,606
  • Aug 8, 2014 10:39pm Aug 8, 2014 10:39pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The next picture shows no third-degree contradiction. Note that I am going back in time, so you can see how third degree contradictions are corrected.
  • #915,607
  • Aug 8, 2014 10:42pm Aug 8, 2014 10:42pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No third degree mis-pricing. This period is OK.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is a problem at A which is corrected later.
  • #915,608
  • Aug 8, 2014 10:51pm Aug 8, 2014 10:51pm
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Problem at A, corrected later.

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No problem

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​
No problem
  • #915,609
  • Aug 8, 2014 10:57pm Aug 8, 2014 10:57pm
First example back in time, where the mis-pricing is corrected upward!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10a.PNG Size: 38 KB


another example.

I can go on posting but, I don't want to flood the forum. I will just say, that problem at 1.33363 will be corrected just all the others before it.
  • #915,610
  • Aug 8, 2014 11:04pm Aug 8, 2014 11:04pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11a.PNG Size: 35 KB


If we go all the way back to june 2005 we found 84 third dergee mis-pricing bars, 23 corrected to the upside, 61 corrected to the downside. I will put my head on the chopping block and say the next one will be corrected ON THE NEXT OMEGA!!!

So, this up is NOT sustainable. Next week will show that!!!!
  • #915,611
  • Aug 8, 2014 11:16pm Aug 8, 2014 11:16pm
Those of you who are very smart can look at those pictures and find a way to replicate those arrows and VERIFY it for yourself. You will not be able to calculate the probabilities or get all the arrows right but you can get close!
  • #915,612
  • Aug 8, 2014 11:34pm Aug 8, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting Eurusdd
Those of you who are very smart can look at those pictures and find a way to replicate those arrows and VERIFY it for yourself. You will not be able to calculate the probabilities or get all the arrows right but you can get close!
But as far as I remember, you said the 99.9999% probability thing. Wasn't that supposed to be your calculation of probability?
  • #915,613
  • Aug 8, 2014 11:36pm Aug 8, 2014 11:36pm
@ eurusdd,

thanks for your effort, althoug it is not clear what produces these omegas I respect your effort.

Anyway, as far as I can see the corrections need some time, maybe a few days, and I think this is what was mentioned here as not optimal.
  • #915,614
  • Aug 9, 2014 12:08am Aug 9, 2014 12:08am
Perfect and clear explanations
Now, there is no doubt holly grail exists, and you found it
One minor problem to solve this weekend, YOu have to work at that 0.01% margin of error, 100% seems nicer than 99.9%

Damn...i forgot how fun it is to read this forum
  • #915,615
  • Edited 12:21am Aug 9, 2014 12:10am | Edited 12:21am
Quoting irfandbl
{quote} But as far as I remember, you said the 99.9999% probability thing. Wasn't that supposed to be your calculation of probability?
That probability is for the correction of the problem at A, not 1.3390. 1.3390 has nothing to do with this algorithm. I just thought the problem will be corrected before eurusd touched 1.3390.

Notice that on the current chart, there is only one omega after A, at B. That is a sign, the next omega will likely be below A. Look at the other examples.

I said you may not be able to calculate the probability because you don't know how I do it. But you may be able to reproduce those arrow crudely.
  • #915,616
  • Aug 9, 2014 12:22am Aug 9, 2014 12:22am
Quoting Eurusdd
in the few minutes, I am going to post a series of pictures to justify whay I call a problem at 1.33364. Two years agi, I managed to find a crude way to adapt a similarity principle to mt4 charts. I used 24 different timeframes and found out that the optimal numbers that can spot mis-pricing for the forex random process or processes governed by human emotions are 2, 3 and 4. In the pictures below, a mis-pricing is identified when the low/high of a bar is not accompanied by an omega eventually in the direction of the market at that time. I will post...

Thanks EURUSDD for caring to explaining and sharing. I value highly what you post here.

I see some people here are very quick to jump to conclusions about what they does not like. i guess it is in our nature to do that.

and for the record, i am holding my shorts, which i do not mind keeping them because after this up leg, there will be another down leg which my shorts could profit from (maybe even earlier, and i am paitent enough.). I just missed the some trading opportunity on this up leg that i did expect.


i did posted a question for you a while back:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post7660809

Quoting vector0
{quote} Thanks for sharing EURUSDD. You know i mean it. I consider myself lucky to 'experience' one exception of your calls. as you can see i actually did put my leg into the water ;D Do you 'see' anything special regarding the market between the time you made the high-probability call and the time when the market actually decided not to move that way, and hit 1.3990 first?
just hoping you can share anything on that. since you mention that the 1.3990 wasn't (part of the problem to be solved?) and you have disclose more on the way the problem 'occurs' (the omegas), maybe my question should be changed to :

"When the market refuses to correct a problem , and move away from it, is there anything delicate that you observe, and is there any explanation that you would attach to that?"

my reason of asking this is that , a bullish move yesterday was actually written on my walls (and i planned to trade it.) and because i have many reason to believe that the problem at 1.33364 you mentioned is real, i love to to hear something from you regarding the price movement yesterday.

Thank you again for your sharing!
  • #915,617
  • Aug 9, 2014 12:27am Aug 9, 2014 12:27am
Quoting vector0
{quote} Thanks EURUSDD for caring to explaining and sharing. I value highly what you post here. I see some people here are very quick to jump to conclusions about what they does not like. i guess it is in our nature to do that. and for the record, i am holding my shorts, which i do not mind keeping them because after this up leg, there will be another down leg which my shorts could profit from (maybe even earlier, and i am paitent enough.). I just missed the some trading opportunity on this up leg that i did expect. i did posted a question for you...
Moving away from a problem. HMMM. As far as the data in history, there is none. Maybe some crazy data will come in the future. That is why it is better to let the market operate without knowing I am watching this fact. The market has never failed to correct a problem IN HISTORY!!! That is why I am sure about correction, assuming all things equal.
  • #915,618
  • Aug 9, 2014 12:50am Aug 9, 2014 12:50am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Moving away from a problem. HMMM. As far as the data in history, there is none. Maybe some crazy data will come in the future. That is why it is better to let the market operate without knowing I am watching this fact. The market has never failed to correct a problem IN HISTORY!!! That is why I am sure about correction, assuming all things equal.
Got it. What i mean is , price moving away from the 'problem' price, BEFORE actually correcting it.

i noticed that you may attach a time-window within which problems are corrected.

so during this time window, is there any 'rules' that govern how price would/should move?

Thanks!
  • #915,619
  • Aug 9, 2014 1:20am Aug 9, 2014 1:20am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Moving away from a problem. HMMM. As far as the data in history, there is none. Maybe some crazy data will come in the future. That is why it is better to let the market operate without knowing I am watching this fact. The market has never failed to correct a problem IN HISTORY!!! That is why I am sure about correction, assuming all things equal.
I feel there is nothing wrong with your methods or logic, the error was a human one, you probably second guessed the algo
  • #915,620
  • Aug 9, 2014 1:21am Aug 9, 2014 1:21am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Moving away from a problem. HMMM..
I am trying my best to grasp you system, however I am stuck on the charts where some bars have 2 omegas? Please can
you explain a little further the principles of these omegas.

Also would a significant piece of fundamental data trump one of these corrections?
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
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