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NZD/USD

  • #6,821
  • Jul 17, 2014 8:01pm Jul 17, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting nafham
{quote} nah, you could say anything but your words never bought my believing in myself. When you said this before, I was at -$5500 and right now the graph going up make my profit at -$4300. I could close this position right now with this loss and think its better than losing -$5500 right? Always stay positive and believe with our own skills and perceptions.
Nafham. losing 1200 on 5500 is still 20 percent. You are pretty much few pips away from them closing your positions down. If you feel now that your on the wrong side quickly make a change to the other direction. NZD is the lowest price of them all and you could still pounce on it with enough leverage to come back in no time. I switched courses through all week on this....I got hit, but reversed it literally between AM and then at PM. GL
  • #6,822
  • Jul 17, 2014 8:22pm Jul 17, 2014 8:22pm
Quoting nafham
{quote} nah, you could say anything but your words never bought my believing in myself. When you said this before, I was at -$5500 and right now the graph going up make my profit at -$4300. I could close this position right now with this loss and think its better than losing -$5500 right? Always stay positive and believe with our own skills and perceptions.
you told that your're in the hole to the tune that your entire account might get wiped out! Indicative of perception outweighing skills by far.
  • #6,823
  • Jul 17, 2014 9:04pm Jul 17, 2014 9:04pm
Quoting bogus
{quote} I don't see it. I just see price making new lows. {image}
Here you go. This chart is H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd-h4-alpari-uk-ltd-temp-file-screenshot-23634-png.png Size: 63 KB
  • #6,824
  • Jul 17, 2014 9:26pm Jul 17, 2014 9:26pm
I guess, we will not see any significant move today - it looks like just within the 50-80 range
  • #6,825
  • Jul 17, 2014 9:34pm Jul 17, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting nafham
{quote} nah, you could say anything but your words never bought my believing in myself. When you said this before, I was at -$5500 and right now the graph going up make my profit at -$4300. I could close this position right now with this loss and think its better than losing -$5500 right? Always stay positive and believe with our own skills and perceptions.

I happy for you..
  • #6,826
  • Edited 10:51pm Jul 17, 2014 9:47pm | Edited 10:51pm
Quoting nafham
{quote} nah, you could say anything but your words never bought my believing in myself. When you said this before, I was at -$5500 and right now the graph going up make my profit at -$4300. I could close this position right now with this loss and think its better than losing -$5500 right? Always stay positive and believe with our own skills and perceptions.
Hi Nafham
You are way over-blown lots size relative to account.That is something you must work on.86pips equaling 50% account is detrimental.
ideally you should risk 2% max 5% you are risking way way more.
I sensed that because you value your intellect you think you can outsmart the market and hit home run after home run?Not in reality and does not matter how smart you are.Its a probability game and you must accept that you could be wrong.I bet it never crossed your mind risk factor that you let 10pip loss on 50lot account become 80+pip loss.
Sorry that's pretty amateurish.I am not going to complement on your error of judgement but do recommend you understand market from psychological perspective. Books I recommend to read that would help.
Regards

Trading books
1.All Market Wizards books by JACK D. SCHWAGER (This is to open your eyes what is possible in Trading)
2.REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR (Read it twice 2nd time got lot more out of it)
3.Harmonic Trader by Scott Carney (anything by him)
4.Bird watching in Lion Country by Dirk du Toit (implemented lots of ideas from him)
5.Trading in the Zone (classic on psychology of trading)
6.Van Tharp - Super Trader (Even if you absorb 20% of the book you’ll improve by huge margin)
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,827
  • Edited 10:08pm Jul 17, 2014 9:52pm | Edited 10:08pm
Quoting cobracoder
{quote} I happy for you..
I think you are missing the point. When someone hits his head on the wall and bleeds and then says well I hit my head little lighter and bled less does not negate the fact he was hitting his head on the wall.
Its the principle here.

Problem with lot of new traders is psychological.They assume they really accept the risk when in realty they are so sure of the success of their trades that risk takes back seat.This is compounded if you think you are a genius and you can't be wrong which then you hang on to losers until it becomes an elephant size loss.
Moving stops,ignoring stops,letting winners become losers etc. are all psychological factors.
In the end we trade ourselves not the market.One can't change the market but we can change our perception of it.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,828
  • Jul 17, 2014 10:12pm Jul 17, 2014 10:12pm
something pivotal on my 1D chart !!!
bear trends all converging on 21 july 2014 ... what does it mean???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 45 KB
  • #6,829
  • Jul 17, 2014 10:14pm Jul 17, 2014 10:14pm
So all morning...I've been saying the commodity currency dead cat bounce...still forming here...you think it will finally run??
  • #6,830
  • Jul 17, 2014 10:37pm Jul 17, 2014 10:37pm
Quoting barrett
{quote} Here you go. This chart is H4 {image}
That is not a bullish flag. Your "pole" has to bullish.
Attached Image
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #6,831
  • Jul 18, 2014 12:19am Jul 18, 2014 12:19am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Nafham You are way over-blown lots size relative to account.That is something you must work on.86pips equaling 50% account is detrimental. ideally you should risk 2% max 5% you are risking way way more. I sensed that because you value your intellect you think you can outsmart the market and hit home run after home run?Not in reality and does not matter how smart you are.Its a probability game and you must accept that you could be wrong.I bet it never crossed your mind risk factor that you let 10pip loss on 50lot account become 80+pip...

Thank you
  • #6,832
  • Jul 18, 2014 3:15am Jul 18, 2014 3:15am
Quoting bogus
{quote} That is not a bullish flag. Your "pole" has to bullish. {image}
Jesus. This is embarassing. I got the whole flag and wedge thing mixed up after 3 years of trading.
Maybe I should delete my ff account and make a new one. Or we'll just pretend this never happened
I'm still staying in though. TP is 50% retracement
  • #6,833
  • Jul 18, 2014 3:48am Jul 18, 2014 3:48am
NZDUSD likely to continue trading down. 40-EMA near 0.8690 and descending trend line on H1 chart, near 0.8700, likely to become strong resistance for the pair, breaking which 0.8730 can become reality. However, downside support of 0.8650 is more likely to be tested, breaking which 0.8620 and 0.8600 can become next supports for the pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1.png Size: 47 KB
  • #6,834
  • Jul 18, 2014 4:25am Jul 18, 2014 4:25am
People will see any technical symbol they want in order to match their position...

In its simplest form, lower highs and lower lows on every time frame from the H1 to the Weekly is telling you exactly where this is going...
  • #6,835
  • Jul 18, 2014 1:05pm Jul 18, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting barrett
{quote} Jesus. This is embarassing. I got the whole flag and wedge thing mixed up after 3 years of trading. Maybe I should delete my ff account and make a new one. Or we'll just pretend this never happened I'm still staying in though. TP is 50% retracement
Fortunately no longer a hanging offence. Just say a few Hail Mary's
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #6,836
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:04pm Jul 18, 2014 8:04pm
If NzUs manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.8701, it'll probably continue up to test 0.8719. In case the second key resistance is broken, it'll probably attempt to advance to 0.8741.

If it manages to breach the first key support at 0.8657, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.8630. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.8517.

Opened short-term long in live acct. @.86745.
  • #6,837
  • Jul 19, 2014 11:24am Jul 19, 2014 11:24am
Quoting cosman
If NzUs manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.8701, it'll probably continue up to test 0.8719. In case the second key resistance is broken, it'll probably attempt to advance to 0.8741. If it manages to breach the first key support at 0.8657, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.8630. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.8517. Opened short-term long in live acct. @.86745.
Yep got long at 8650 area.. targeting 8740... then will be short to 8550 and adding shorts along the way... see shorts coming in at 9740/70... think we might see 8744 short to 8695 then 1 last final move up say 8752 then game over... either way I'll be short at 8740 as don't want to miss the move... stop behind the resistance
  • #6,838
  • Jul 19, 2014 11:35am Jul 19, 2014 11:35am
Quoting Pharm0r
People will see any technical symbol they want in order to match their position... In its simplest form, lower highs and lower lows on every time frame from the H1 to the Weekly is telling you exactly where this is going...
agree with you but we got IR date coming up 24th July and that's a game changer.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,839
  • Jul 19, 2014 10:58pm Jul 19, 2014 10:58pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} agree with you but we got IR date coming up 24th July and that's a game changer.
IMO, technicals are front running the fundamental perception that there won't be an IR hike
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #6,840
  • Jul 19, 2014 11:39pm Jul 19, 2014 11:39pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} IMO, technicals are front running the fundamental perception that there won't be an IR hike
Mistake which I made entering too early shorting because PA was dropping prior of previous IR hikes as well.
I am short in large positions however I don't discount IR hike again since RBNZ already announced they are on track on IR.
I guess I developed healthy attitude that anything can happen in markets.At this point in my trading experience its about MM and less about predicting the future.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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