Trading is as simple as ABCD

A little EURJPY long... Nice tight 4 pip SL... Already at BE + 0.5% as we've hit my 1.5:1 target. Part 2 open to run.

I know its greedy but lets have a go at 2 pairs at a time this morning!!

Just testing its DEmo not sure I would be quite as crazy with real money as one at a time is enough but just testing the idea.

So far so good.

Hi Clive

There was a euraud trade 1 swing earlier that I missed, around the same time that ej signalled, about 20 mins before the 1hr closed.

But system trades all over (in that I'll include the cci 14 200 retrace on scale).

Ignoring the question of catching the turns you must be very happy with the system as its going.

Good morning Mr V.

Yep i am very pleased with the system but not so happy with my trade management and psychology, still work in progress there, but yes the system coming along nicely.

Still some minor issues to resolve. For instance when I have 4 Top Trenders on chart, which do I take??

Also a big issue for me is when to hold and when to just take profits.

Was just about to post a review of this mornings trades which by the way I came out at BE by closing EURAUD for a 5.1 pip loss but closing AUDCAD for a 6.4 pip win. Was up about 12 pips at one time but almost turned into a loser. thats just not good enough.

I have this problem of wanting to hold the runners when I catch one but also wanting to close out the non runners for a profit too?? The two don't really run hand in hand do they??

So do I have to decide before hand I am just grabbing a handful of pips here and thats it???

Trouble is the RRs gonna be about 1:1 at best doing that. Not in line with my goal of bigger winners.

Guess I could do something similar to pres78 with closing half at first push say 8 pips then moving stop to 7 pips basically BE. Then let other half run or bank it if it falters??Difficult isn't it??

In a perfect world we would have a trade management system which covers both but not sure how we do that??maybe something like this??

Enter as per our method then as price approaches B take half and move stop to pres78s BE position depending on the profit we just took. If we took 6 pips profit then a 5 pip stop to cover commissions. Then if stop survives next retest watch point B again if this time price falters bank it and be done with it.

However if it pushes by point B then move stop to BE so locking in the half profit you took earlier which is now protected behind point B so has a chance of surviving.Add if point B gets retested and rinse and repeat as pres78 says. Basicall trading the trend until it ends, whenever that might be.This way we have the best of both worlds safety plus maximium returns if its a runner.

The other thought I have is to just accept that 80% of the time they don't run so just bank when it falters and if it runs just trade each momentum push as an individual trade?

What do you thinks best way forward???

Hey pres78 you're getting bigger winners aren't you?? whats the secret???

heres the result from earlier, will save me posting my review.

Also took GBPCAD this morning as LO was approaching. There were 2 other nice entries after this one also (not shown as they hadn't printed yet). Entry 3 hit 2:1 before the pre-new mark up so even though SL was hit had I taken it I would have netted a +0.5% gain. New came out an my current trade hit as much as 7:1 and is sitting around 5.5-6:1 right now.

Sorry didn't post when I took it but I waited about 30 mins after LO and went back to bed.

Before I went to bed I set part to for 4:1 as this was just above the next 25 level. It was hit as I slept.

Great trading pres78

You're having some great results here are you having many loses?? Getting some awesome RR's too so can't be bad.

I've just been looking at your entries and stops and you're getting some super tight stops aren't you??Gonna have to up my game plan if I'm gonna match your results.

I think I need to tighten my entries a little better too sometimes hit them a bit too late probably best to let them ones go and wait the next pullback I guess.I think if I tighten my stops a bit then I will start to get better RRs like you and solve the problem I discussed above with Mr V. how do you decide when to exit by the way???

Anyway cracking stuff keep it going.

Clive I'll look at time of day, the move done so far.

Your EURAUD this morning, there was a big move up on news this morning Asian session so the question again was how far was it going to go? You entered on the 2nd signal if I recall pre LO so I'd definitely factor that in. At this stage I am looking to get in and out in 15-20 pips especially before LO. If we were going into US session and there had been very little done by London then obviously chances are higher than bigger moves can come.

15 pips at this stage is about a 3% trade for me (10 pip stop with 2% risk) and I am happy with any trade in the 3-4% range.

Two birds one stone...

The best trades are always the first and sometimes the second. Your EURAUD trade as Van mentioned was second enrty and we had moved a bit between FO and LO. If we had a move between FO and LO (not to mention considering what Asia had done) then I am wary taking trades right at LO as LO is infamous for fake outs as we saw yet again today. I prefer to give London 5,10 even 15 mins or more to see how the post opening bell action unfolds and see what trend if any forms. If I am not mistaken that entry on EURAUD was right at LO and we were 17ish pips away from the 100 MA. Yes we were just above the 75 level but the higher highs we saw after LO was not supported by either CCI. I have never really discussed this before (you have asked but I have avoided as it could turn into a long conversation) about how I pick and choose my entries based on things other than the basic rules. I have a long history and practice of reading PA using volume, suopply and demand, support and resistance etc... so this plays a big factor but the simple answer for now is I do not like taking entries when the CCI 210 is already over 200. Call me crazy but in my testing enrties taking on 14 retraces when the CCI 210 is over and stays over 200 (or under) never seem to go very far...

Now that all said you also got in 5 green bars in so getting quicker on the draw will help. I know you thought you had 25 pips to the BRN but combination of CCI 210 over 200 and LO created a roadblock. You gotta work on getting in on the first trades. Price first crosses or bounces from the MA's they have turned the right color, the CCI 210 enters or re-enters trend and the 14 retraces that first time... Those are the keys and the first retrace typically will offer the best chance at catching a runner.

Second part as you noted below is I don't use a flat 10 pip SL. If I can get in tighter and the spread allows I will go 5-10 for SL and usually want to tuck under the MA if possible. Anything more than 10 pips SL is an automatic no go. A rule for me is that I must have a min of 2 times spread at entry (better if I can have at least 3 times) for SL. So if the spead was 1.5 I would want say a 5 pip SL as I don't want to see a trade get taken out by 1 tick against me...

Third is expectations based on time of day, current moves, current locations, recent swings and overall price structure. If I think 2:1 or 3:1 is the best I can hope for then I set fixed TP's. If I see room to move then I let it ride.

Trade entry and management can be quite complex to master and it would take me a whole chapter or two to cover it all in proper detail so we will leave it at that...

My recommendation is to start out not looking for runners. Start nailing fixed targets based on 1:1 or even 2:1 or 3:1 (based on trade expeactations / limitations) and get in / get out and watch your bank grow. Actually start with 1.5:1 so your reward is better than risk as that is better for the trading brain...

With that comes confidences and you can eventually deleve into more complex trade management. My tighter stops help get better R:R as that extra 3-5 pips versus a 10 pip SL makes a huge difference but you have to be sure about SL placements and spreads so you don't get wacked before the trade gets moving.

I guess I said all I wanted to say above so...

Today was a bust for me, missed the morning trade then I was on the phone for these post US news trades.

Which would I have picked, strong v weak gbp buys looking good against a couple of weak pairs.

Oh well at least it shows system again.

EURUSD system trade short triggers at 8:27, 8:28 and 8:29 (EST) leading into NFP at 8:30 EST... Would anyone have been brave enough to follow the signals and take the shorts? After the news came out we were too far away to make any trades so it would have been before or nothing. But what if the news wasn't so great for the USD? I mean the big boys couldn't have been pre-selling unreleased good news could they? That would insinuate some level of market manipulation now wouldn't it and we all know that can't be true !

Would've been one hell of a great and fast short! Too risky for me though.

Thanks pres78

Yep reckon you're bang on the money there need to get in earlier in every sense of the word.

In fact thats exactly what Martin, my veteran trader mentor, had to say in our 2hr skype session today. He summed it all up in a nutshell for me when he said. "Clive, you're getting in too late 3rd sometimes 4th and 5th moves and wandering why it only goes 4 or 5 pips???"

Its because its exhausted, its the end of the move, its finito, done its thing , kaputt its basically finished and I'm trying to jump on. Now a lot of that could be down to my top trenders or strongest/weakest indys. They by their very nature show us whats moved not whats about to move so quite often they come to the top at the end of their runs so will have to have a closer look at the charts when they come to the top.

Basically if its just starting and MAs just starting to separate ,then fine go with it. Other than that tread carefully as in fact if it is the end of a run then every possibility its about to reverse. In fact thats how I may well use my TT indy in future, if the Top trender looks exhausted I will tread carefully and if anything look for a reversal setup. One sign of that is the CCI having been over 100 level now dropping back below, thats the first sign a 15 min momentum move is coming to an end, sure it could pick right up and go again but just need to be aware of it. Price action will confirm one way or the other eg first LL in a uptrend or first HH in a downtrend, warning signs its about to reverse and not to enter.

But I think the crux of the whole matter is quite simple really only take the first two CCI signals in the move after the 15 min CCI has given its buy/sell signal. If its been trending and we've had 2 successful 1 min CCI signals leave it be, I'm too late to the party.

Now I've been banging on about looking for these 15 min CCI signals since I don't know when, but now thanks to Martin and pres78 its very clear what I have to do. Look for the 15 min CCI to turn then catch the first two 1 min CCI signals only. After all they are wave 3 and 5 of the Elliot wave so makes so much sense.

Also, of course, it will lead to my bigger RR's that I'm so desperately seeking. Just think if I catch a 15 min CCI down turn in a strong 15 min down trend could be holding as long as the 15 min trend stays in tact?? Just to the side here the strongest 15 min trends are actually 4hr momentum runs so to identify best pairs to trade will be checking out the strongest trending 4 hr charts with a 10lwma as the reference MA.

So lets have a look at what my future set ups will look like on a chart. Lets take the eurjpy trades this morning.

1) First sign to me that the downtrend is weakening is the 15 min CCI croosing above the -100 level. I know that pres78 and Mr V. will be pulling their hair out but this to me is the first sign the trend is weakening, not to be taken as the entry signal just the first filter of 4.

2) The 200sma and 100lwma crossover.

3) The last LH is taken out by a HH.

4) The next CCI buy signal is a HL and also a break and retest of the 100SMA and this one is also using last LH as support. I'm sure pres78 wouldn't take this one as 15 min CCI hasn't gone above +100 level but I like these break and retests of 100sma etc.

5) The first entry that is above CCI +100 level and also a retest of the 100SMA . (Freds favourite entry)

6) Just in case you prefer to be above +100 level then this is the 2nd entry.

7) As we have not got in early then a choice of exits either wait for price to close across 100lwma or close out when price has a failed drive up.

As for stops I will be using an emergency 10 pips that will put me behind the 100sma but will look to close out if I don't get the price action I want. Will be using pres78s break even strategy on entry to safeguard capital.

Profit from 100lwma exit is either 30 if take the first two entries or 20 if you take the 2nd two, either way a nice little earner.

Just checking some charts and might review exit to closing across 100sma rather than 100lwma but will see how it goes next week on demo and decide for following week when live.

Hopefully there might be some bigger winners on some of the larger runners.

Now I know Mr V. and pres78 won't be too happy with the first entry as the 210 CCI is not above the +100 level but I will be happy with the break and retest of the 100sma and the last LH, for me that qualifies the entry and gives me somewhere solid to protect my initial stop.

Anyway that I believe is the final piece of the Jig Saw for me with a better entry of the first 2 pullbacks plus the exit method has completed my trading plan, now its just about the discipline and patience to trade it so next week demo on explorer again and if that goes well then real money following week.

Thanks again to all the advice etc Pres78, Mr V. and Martin.

#5 arrow is a perfect entry ... Notice also that #4 didn't get you in much lower than #5. They needed to fill more buy orders. Notice trend was in place at 5and we moved well away... no trend at #4 and it went nowhere slowly...

I knew you wouldn't like number my 4 entry and in fact it is a bit tatty as you say because its not above the +100 cci level but it does qualify for me with its break and retest of 100sma and as I say I know Fred likes these entries so can expect a good push from here. Of Course it didn't happen this time but it does more often than not shoot off of 100sma like a rocket so I will be going for them just as long as the other filters are in place.

Will say these turns work quickly and well if theres been a strong push down first as the reversal is caused by hard banking of the previous run downs profits.

If next week I keep getting into trouble with any entry below 100 levels I will leave them out when using real money, I promise you.

hi good pple,
just on the sideways learning from de gurus here. pres,van,clive n whoever shares their views;
please guys lets keep this alive...you are helping us here greatly.
Clive's weak/strong indi cant be seen on my notebook ....even wen i try to view fullscreen. Vantage can you please share yours as its not aligned very far.will appreciate it boss!
Clive am glad ur sticking to your own rules now and avoiding predicting de market.thanks to pres and van. I luv trading what i see than the wat if's....everything is clear here and am glad clive started this.
happy pips

Hi nogames2014

glad you are enjoying the thread and learning, hope others are too. Yes I think theres some good stuff here too, I know I'm learning loads so hopefully a few others are too.

I intend to keep it going as long as possible and start putting more trades up next week for everyone to see.

As for the strongest/weakest indy try these settings as below it should put the indy right in the middle of your screen then you can adjust it to suit your self where you want it on screen. If this don't work I give up.

ooooh thnx Clive......you make stuff look easy
about the daily range and timing your entries ...i use this indi...wen rm up or dwn is red....ts a no go in tht direction.hope it helps you mate!
i cant wait for next week trades....always look forward to your trade charts van and pres

Heres something I struggle with this system look at the top 4 trenders below they just keep going and I haven't taken a single trade because they've been looking like they've moved too far all afternoon. So like a good boy I've just sat here thinking "They've gone too far no point in taking an entry they will reverse and take you out"
but they just keep going???

Thoughts anyone???

small divergence in play. Keep up the good work