Oktoberfest Nightclub | Page 257 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: Oktoberfest Nightclub
Exit Attachments

Oktoberfest Nightclub

  • #5,121
  • May 16, 2014 4:33pm May 16, 2014 4:33pm


go to the last pages, there you find the conclusion

Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Should i read that ?? I get headache if i must reed 20 sites on english . I will try to read it. But respect to YOU - i think you have read some books about trading and theory's. I think your knowledge is big and you allways discuss with people here on ff about some theorys - as i can see in the mvzvega volume thread. I don't want to wast my time with some people. (Zeitverschwendung!) Ich meine aber nicht dich damit!
  • #5,122
  • May 16, 2014 4:37pm May 16, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Yes you are right that wave 5 can be longer than wave 3 - as i have said this is theory and EURUSD is a whole ABC on bigger timeframes Daily and Weekly. Wir könnten alles etwas "dehnbar" auf EW-Basis sehen, aber irgendwo sollten wir einen Punkt machen und uns hinterfragen, wie weit lass ich dann mein Entry in Loss gehen? If i don't see what i want to see i don't trade this move - this is my theory. If you see this downmove as a impuls you can trade it downwards, and i dont see this as a downward move and i dont trade this and i'm sure right...
  • #5,123
  • May 16, 2014 4:41pm May 16, 2014 4:41pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} As i have said smaler timeframes you can find some 12345 waves i never said that ABC Flat is not a 12345 wave. The upmove is a clear impulse wave = may be for a ABC Flat upwards to 1.37xx 1.38xx and i traded the downmove today and the upmove today and i'm stil long on EURUSD.
I too think, that the upmove so far was an impulse. yesterday evening I thought a small wave 5 was missing, but I think that was a fault.

We seem to be now in a corrective move down, which should terminate soon.

i am long too since yesterdays low
  • #5,124
  • May 16, 2014 4:46pm May 16, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I too think, that the upmove so far was an impulse. yesterday evening I thought a small wave 5 was missing, but I think that was a fault. We seem to be now in a corrective move down, which should terminate soon. i am long too since yesterdays low
may be we see a bear failure as i have said to rbtancor and i also miss a one leg lower.

May be wee see a lower GAP at the opening................... grrrrr
  • #5,125
  • May 16, 2014 4:59pm May 16, 2014 4:59pm
Good night!
  • #5,126
  • May 16, 2014 5:00pm May 16, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote}
i am long too since yesterdays low
auf die Gefahr hin das sich das saublöd anhört, ihr mich teert, federt, steinigt und Schickl mich zusätzlich auf die Ignore Liste setzt....

am 14ten war Vollmond, und zum Teil markieren Vollmondtage / Neumondtage Kurs Übertreibungen oder Umkehrpunkte

 

  1. Donnerstag, 16. Januar 2014, 05:52:12 Uhr
  2. Samstag, 15. Februar 2014, 00:53:00 Uhr
  3. Sonntag, 16. März 2014, 18:08:24 Uhr
  4. Dienstag, 15. April 2014, 09:42:18 Uhr [**]
  5. Mittwoch, 14. Mai 2014, 21:15:54 Uhr


als Handelssystem ungeeignet aber eine gewisse korrelation ist nicht von der Hand zu weisen.

*prost* schönes WE

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: moon.PNG Size: 51 KB
just do it
  • #5,127
  • May 17, 2014 12:59am May 17, 2014 12:59am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Aber irgendwo müssen wir die Kirche im Dorf lassen und das EW-Gebiet etwas eingrenzen, sonst ist es uferlos. Es ist eigentlich alles möglich nach ew-theorie.
That is very true.

EW is flexible. that is because social mood can turn on a dime, and Ew can account for that.

In the end, EW is a probability tool, too
  • #5,128
  • May 17, 2014 1:06am May 17, 2014 1:06am
Quoting thodie
{quote} auf die Gefahr hin das sich das saublöd anhört, ihr mich teert, federt, steinigt und Schickl mich zusätzlich auf die Ignore Liste setzt.... am 14ten war Vollmond, und zum Teil markieren Vollmondtage / Neumondtage Kurs Übertreibungen oder Umkehrpunkte Donnerstag, 16. Januar 2014, 05:52:12 Uhr Samstag, 15. Februar 2014, 00:53:00 Uhr Sonntag, 16. März 2014, 18:08:24 Uhr Dienstag, 15. April 2014, 09:42:18 Uhr [**] Mittwoch, 14. Mai 2014, 21:15:54 Uhr als Handelssystem ungeeignet aber eine gewisse korrelation ist nicht von der Hand zu weisen....


some years ago we had that discussion about moon phase trading. There is a nice research paper out, which showed, that moon phase trading gives the best results when trading Asian assets, or during Asian sessions.

when I remember corectly, the authors attributed it to self-fulfilling prophecy, too, because Asian people rely a lot on moon phases.

I think you can find the study in my old "Shangri-la" thread in the attachments
  • #5,129
  • May 17, 2014 1:13am May 17, 2014 1:13am
Quoting thodie
{quote} auf die Gefahr hin das sich das saublöd anhört, ihr mich teert, federt, steinigt und Schickl mich zusätzlich auf die Ignore Liste setzt.... am 14ten war Vollmond, und zum Teil markieren Vollmondtage / Neumondtage Kurs Übertreibungen oder Umkehrpunkte Donnerstag, 16. Januar 2014, 05:52:12 Uhr Samstag, 15. Februar 2014, 00:53:00 Uhr Sonntag, 16. März 2014, 18:08:24 Uhr Dienstag, 15. April 2014, 09:42:18 Uhr [**] Mittwoch, 14. Mai 2014, 21:15:54 Uhr als Handelssystem ungeeignet aber eine gewisse korrelation ist...
my iggy list is clean - since my suspension - do you really want to be the 1st one on my iggy list



always the same game - the sequense of moves are normal. The Fibonacci sequence appears in nature and full moon does the same incl. ein paar Schubladen.
Attached Image
  • #5,130
  • May 17, 2014 1:19am May 17, 2014 1:19am
Quoting Schickeria
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Above red marked quote: wave 3 can even be shorter than wave 1 - so I do not know how that will fit into your system. And a wave 5 can be much longer than wave 1 or wave 3. Sometimes we see a wave 5, which is over 4 times as long as a wave 1 Please do not misunderstand me. I'm trading only the CLEAR waves of EW-Theory. Elliottwave.com said on GBPUSD a big drop down and we reached 1.699x and why ???? Yes on my view they counted a 1-2-3 and wave 4 as a triangle. And wave 4 was a failure. OK OK we have 15% tolerance
...
that is easy to answer:

a) there is no clear rule of retracements. When it comes to retracements there are only guidelines. But as Swannels exceptional work has shown, the retracements show wide spanning distribution curves . But even when a distribution curve for a certain wave shows the highest probability, e.g., for a retracement around 38%, we may very well be surprised by a retracement of much more or less. Only the probability is lower for that. But again: probability is not certainty


b) the triangle count of EWI :

i think they played it right, because the triangle count had the highest probability.
They switched the count lately, when it got obvious, that the leg up became to long for a wave E of the triangle. Now they have an wxy count

that is the flexibility EW stands for. It is not a crystal ball when doing forecasts with it. it is then a probability tool.
  • #5,131
  • May 17, 2014 1:22am May 17, 2014 1:22am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} may be we see a bear failure as i have said to rbtancor and i also miss a one leg lower. May be wee see a lower GAP at the opening................... grrrrr
I would like to see a small leg down too. Wave 5 of C of wave B (or 2)
  • #5,132
  • May 17, 2014 1:23am May 17, 2014 1:23am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} my iggy list is clean - since my suspension - do you really want to be the 1st one on my iggy list always the same game - the sequense of moves are normal. The Fibonacci sequence appears in nature and full moon does the same incl. ein paar Schubladen. {image}
When had you be suspended? And for what?
  • #5,133
  • May 17, 2014 1:33am May 17, 2014 1:33am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} When had you be suspended? And for what?
i was on 1. May suspended for one week.

Why????

We have here some commercial members on ff and they can do what they want and provoke here on ff.

Die habe ich beschimpft und bin dafür rausgeflogen.

Thay are still active and Twee don't change them to commercials. I don't know why???? I think we have clear rules here on ff.

But i don't want to play the police here on ff. And i never suspended one member here on ff.
  • #5,134
  • May 17, 2014 1:36am May 17, 2014 1:36am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} When had you be suspended? And for what?
Since my suspension - my complete iggy list was deleted. I don't know why???

Die habe ich mir hart erarbeitet.

Some commercials play here the hero with photoshop results, and called me a micro trader.
  • #5,135
  • May 17, 2014 1:48am May 17, 2014 1:48am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} When had you be suspended? And for what?
I have clear rules here in my thread, and i don't like if someone come here and post against my rules in the thread.

I said that to him:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post7406073

But he don't follow my rules and started with attacking me.

As you can see all poster here are on his iggy list.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post7414860

see here some nice analyses from this guy
  • #5,136
  • May 17, 2014 3:11am May 17, 2014 3:11am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I would like to see a small leg down too. Wave 5 of C of wave B (or 2)
I so like the trail of thoughts going here, so very informative. Although I must admit the link about mathematics things were going all over my head Mr.Infintus. It's probably me! Good job posting them though.

Sch we really like your analysis, keep it up mate, you are doing great.

How far down do you see Euro going to. I can see you are looking for good entry for long. I have a few short entries that I am holding, was thinking of holding them till before June ECB meet, do you think its all been already priced in.
  • #5,137
  • May 17, 2014 4:45am May 17, 2014 4:45am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} I so like the trail of thoughts going here, so very informative. Although I must admit the link about mathematics things were going all over my head Mr.Infintus. It's probably me! Good job posting them though. Sch we really like your analysis, keep it up mate, you are doing great. How far down do you see Euro going to. I can see you are looking for good entry for long. I have a few short entries that I am holding, was thinking of holding them till before June ECB meet, do you think its all been already priced in....
I have the same view. It's going too over my head. Only what i can say = Keep your trading style simple - and follow your own rules!!!

I don't read any literature - i have perfected my trading based on fibonacci - and i will never ever watch to a another system or what another experts say!!!!

It's more than perfect for ME and my MONEY! It allows me to earn 5% per day of my account. I don't want to troll here - but that is real for me and should anyone disagree with me - i give a shit on that (i must say it hard).

On the other side if you can earn with ONE trade 20 Pips and you earn may be 5% of your account why should i discuss about levels what we can see the next week 1.37xx or 1.38xx or 1.35xx or read some stuff or statistics. If i earn my money per day i can close my trading station and do another nice things in my life, or you go to the Circus Thread EURUSD and discuss UP DOWN UP DOWN UP DOWN.

Schickeria

P.S. it should go upwards
  • #5,138
  • May 17, 2014 4:55am May 17, 2014 4:55am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} i missed yesterday my long entry @ EURAUD by the spread. by the way if i don't get my entry i don't trade - easy game. but i'm happy about my account for this month {image} {image}
i posted this on Friday morning

and one day later+8,27 of my account

i can only laugh if i read this statement, i think 95% of professional trader use fibonacci.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post7474101
Attached Image
  • #5,139
  • May 17, 2014 12:57pm May 17, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Can not agree more. sometimes levels are hit to the pip, othertimes not JMHO
Hi Infinitus
Often people get defensive when asked a question but my inquire was and is always coming from perspective that I could learn,understand something even if I disagree with it.
That's the beauty of true discussion.Not ego tripping but honest discussion to stimulate understanding.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,140
  • May 17, 2014 1:41pm May 17, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} I so like the trail of thoughts going here, so very informative. Although I must admit the link about mathematics things were going all over my head Mr.Infintus. It's probably me! Good job posting them though. Sch we really like your analysis, keep it up mate, you are doing great. How far down do you see Euro going to. I can see you are looking for good entry for long. I have a few short entries that I am holding, was thinking of holding them till before June ECB meet, do you think its all been already priced in.

I think, that biggest chance is, that EU has completed years long lasting triangle, and now we are in an impulsive wave down, ideally towards 1.14 roughly. Extended move can bring us towards parity or even deeper over the next months.

In this scenario we have just finished a 5 wave down. Call it wave 1. the recent. move up then is wave 2, which then might evolve as simple zigzag, or maybe complexer wxy-flat.

First target to the upper side might be the broken lower trendline of the triangle, running at around 3825 on monday.

I do hold a core short position since nearly the top (average around 3972). this position I do not cover. I let it simply run with SL at BE

In countermoves I simply take some long positions as I see fit.


some here may not agree with my EW view, but beneath my EW view I do think, that the ECB announcment was the game changer.

a shift in social mood has to be observed on the smallest TF first. Observing the weeklies or monthlies TF's may harm you here, because they are kind of lagging.

Long TF do follow small TF and not vice versa.

Trade well.
0 traders viewing now