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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #44,861
  • Apr 15, 2014 7:46pm Apr 15, 2014 7:46pm
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} I learned long ago with JPY pairs.............don't step in front of them No matter what bias.
yes 100% but I crazy
  • #44,862
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:12pm Apr 15, 2014 8:12pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} You want to step in front of them, that's how you make ur money That is what order flow/price action trading is all about! No offense, but if you don't step in front of them, then ur a sucker, paying too high of a price, and I will take ur money
You misinterpret. I am a momo player so I hop on moves like these before they happen, or at least try too. However, when I see price run away and I am not already in it I stay out. Especially if my bias was contrary to the move. So in this case price is pretty clearly moving up fast, my thought is still short til after 102.33 but I wont step in front and try to short cause JPY has proven to me it can run anyone over at any time. No way I short with current price action. That's what I mean.
  • #44,863
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:19pm Apr 15, 2014 8:19pm
102 was broken, but it looks unconvincing to me.

Also I think the situation in Ukraine is far from resolved.

Opened a short here at 102.20, targeting 101.30.
  • #44,864
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:25pm Apr 15, 2014 8:25pm
Quoting Trendzalore
You misinterpret. I am a momo player so I hop on moves like these before they happen, or at least try too. However, when I see price run away and I am not already in it I stay out. Especially if my bias was contrary to the move. So in this case price is pretty clearly moving up fast, my thought is still short til after 102.33 but I wont step in front and try to short cause JPY has proven to me it can run anyone over at any time. No way I short with current price action. That's what I mean.
Haha, okay that's good, I would agree with that

My point though is that you actually do want to step in front of the big players, or anyone who has the ability to move price (in FX it's mostly central banks). You can predict their habits with good technical analysis, and when you get in the trade before the big money does, that is when you make the most money, like trends, breakouts, ranges, or whatever. So it pays to get in the trade as early as possible, but subject to being right, of course.
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  • #44,865
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:27pm Apr 15, 2014 8:27pm
Quoting pbtec
102 was broken, but it looks unconvincing to me. Also I think the situation in Ukraine is far from resolved. Opened a short here at 102.20, targeting 101.30.
yes , looks unconvincing, lots of noise . would wait awhile maybe few hours later if price still hovers about here
  • #44,866
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:33pm Apr 15, 2014 8:33pm
Quoting pbtec
102 was broken, but it looks unconvincing to me. Also I think the situation in Ukraine is far from resolved. Opened a short here at 102.20, targeting 101.30.
This is a market run by central banks. Unfortunately, nobody cares about Ukraine. We seen more of a reaction before the annexation then the reports of casualties yesterday. Traders want to inflation risk assets. I don't think Ukraine will cause too much of an issue unless a superpower goes in militarily.

I think we can see 102.50/60 on USDJPY unless London takes yen the other way. Chinese data was decent, so it could be unlikely. Japanese economy downgraded by Nikkei, traders expect more easing. It just favors risk as much as I hate it.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #44,867
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:40pm Apr 15, 2014 8:40pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} You want to step in front of them, that's how you make ur money That is what order flow/price action trading is all about! No offense, but if you don't step in front of them, then ur a sucker, paying too high of a price, and I will take ur money
#1( ab=cd nise one) #2( resistance) #3( MA 30 min) #4( MA 60 min ) #5( 3 tops)# 6 Stoch overbid I put the money where my mouth is 6 sales signals
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  • #44,868
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:05pm Apr 15, 2014 9:05pm
Quoting sergo
I put the money where my mouth is 6 sales signals{image}
Trust me, I do too, I've posted that I'm long from 101.47 with Rizmeister. Up over 50 pips currently. And I understand that the price may fall back from here (and I wish you luck on your short), but I will still be holding my long position to see how it plays out overnight. GL!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #44,869
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:07pm Apr 15, 2014 9:07pm
looks promising
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  • #44,870
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:35pm Apr 15, 2014 9:35pm
Can't believe the price went up so fast!! In just one shot, 102 is broken and I lost on 2 positions. All well, cut my losses now and I have joined the Long crowd. My tp is actually 102.55, a resistence level held since beginning of this month.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #44,871
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:36pm Apr 15, 2014 9:36pm
eh, I don't think so. The Bulls will NEVER stop!!!

Go (Chicago) Bulls!
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  • #44,872
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:37pm Apr 15, 2014 9:37pm
I'm gonna try to hold my longs until 105, if I can.
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  • #44,873
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:43pm Apr 15, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting smash1820
I'm gonna try to hold my longs until 105, if I can.
Still looks good on the 4H. Could see a bit of resistance at 103. Since this January, every dip into 101 to 101.50 has been bought and brought up to 102.80/103.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #44,874
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:48pm Apr 15, 2014 9:48pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Still looks good on the 4H. Could see a bit of resistance at 103. Since this January, every dip into 101 to 101.50 has been bought and brought up to 102.80/103.
Hey Pip Anon! Hope ur doing well buddy! Thanks for your post -- that's exactly what I've been thinking too. The longer term picture (Weekly or so) still looks good. And I can hardly believe I'm saying that, because I'm a short-term trader

These moves don't happen overnight though (well maybe some of them do ). I understand that 103 - 105 is going to take some time, which is why it will be a challenge to try to hold for so long! But I know that the price will get there eventually, so why not hold... lol
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  • #44,875
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:49pm Apr 15, 2014 9:49pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Still looks good on the 4H. Could see a bit of resistance at 103. Since this January, every dip into 101 to 101.50 has been bought and brought up to 102.80/103.
Indeed on my 4H chart, the next resistence is at 103.8x. Long way to go!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #44,876
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:55pm Apr 15, 2014 9:55pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Hey Pip Anon! Hope ur doing well buddy! Thanks for your post -- that's exactly what I've been thinking too. The longer term picture (Weekly or so) still looks good. And I can hardly believe I'm saying that, because I'm a short-term trader Of course, these moves don't happen overnight (well maybe some of them do )... I understand that 103 - 105 is going to take some time... which is why it will be a challenge to hold so long! But I know that the price will get there eventually, so why not...
Doing well, busy. Yourself? Yeah, I was bullish yen but rather mixed. 40% of the S&P is in correction territory, so I will US equities are gonna shoot for 1,900 again. Did you see the movement in the US equities markets? Down double digits, up double digits, down, then up double digits. maddening lol.

I just think markets want risk, so we'll get it. Summertime may be a different story.

Right now I'm looking for 102.75 at the moment.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #44,877
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:55pm Apr 15, 2014 9:55pm
Quoting smash1820
I'm gonna try to hold my longs until 105, if I can.
Hey Smash

Will be interesting to see if we get that we dump

Short kicked in

maybe it will climb a bit higher :nerd:
  • #44,878
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:56pm Apr 15, 2014 9:56pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Indeed on my 4H chart, the next resistence is at 103.8x. Long way to go!
Well 104 right after 103, if there is a convincing takeover. USDJPY likes to move in blocks of 100
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #44,879
  • Apr 15, 2014 10:00pm Apr 15, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Indeed on my 4H chart, the next resistence is at 103.8x. Long way to go!
according to 4h ichi moku 102.37 102.60 102.81 102.91 103.31``103.36 103.68 to bollinger band 4h 102.50 102.64 103.14 103.21 103.45 ,i dont know how you get to 103.80 without 2 good news right away
  • #44,880
  • Edited 10:43pm Apr 15, 2014 10:16pm | Edited 10:43pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Doing well, busy. Yourself? Yeah, I was bullish yen but rather mixed. 40% of the S&P is in correction territory, so I will US equities are gonna shoot for 1,900 again. Did you see the movement in the US equities markets? Down double digits, up double digits, down, then up double digits. maddening lol. I just think markets want risk, so we'll get it. Summertime may be a different story. Right now I'm looking for 102.75 at the moment.
Oh I guess I'm alright... you know, still trying to make it

Perhaps I've got a little too much time on my hands to be creepin' around the forums like this though, lol

No, I didn't actually see that move in the S&P or equities lately, but I'll def check it out! I use be a daytrader at a prop firm and trade the S&P every day, but it didn't quite work out and now I'm back to the cheap form of trading, that is FX.

I still trade the S&P occasionally, but my focus is U/J. I wouldn't be surprised to see an S&P at 1,900 either. U/J and G/J (I used to trade that) have got their parallels to the S&P, and vice-versa.

I don't really follow the fundamentals (or like to, even though I am perfectly capable of it), but I would guess the market just doesn't know what it wants yet. If the Ukraine/Crimea crisis is still going on (I don't even know???), maybe the big boys are playing the game of "let's trap as many shorts as possible, so we could f* them later". I could definitely see that, because I've been saying for the last few weeks this whole thing is a giant headfake, and the BoJ sure can be brutal when they want to.

They will not get me though. I am convinced this thing will eventually get back to 105, and so now I'm just trying to ride it out in my FX account for as long as I can, while I buy all the dips in my options account.

I am still trying to work on my trading discipline, LOL, if you haven't noticed. Got an awesome system, but no discipline. Which one is more important, you ask? The discipline, BY FAR.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
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