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Reversals vs. CounterTrend Trade

Quoting MrBurns
{quote} Thats why i only tend to trade this kind of setup on a H4 or Daily basis as there is far too much noise on lower time frames inlcuding swings from news. Larger timeframes tend to eventually hold their technical bias whatever the news outcome. Ive been buggered by price action trading these setups on 15 minute and 5 minute that i hardly ever look at them now
Thanks,

What I would like to do is get better at trading the trend on that day rather then focusing on a reversal.

I notice my most losing days are on big down days where I missed the short or don't get enough entry to go short. Then price comes to support and I don't get a good enough entry to wait for reversal, and get stopped out. Same thing happens later as price continues to fall searching for reversal.

So for me, I want to get out of the buying the reversal and get the trend as it goes down. However, there are some days I know I will miss the short and have to trade the reversal.
Quoting MrBurns
Harmonics are good for buying/selling corrections.... Fibonacci also. Check back on this in a month and see the results. FOR EXAMPLE .... Current AUD/NZD Daily Chart {image}
Very good chart for some examples

1. Would you have short, after price failed to hold confluence support?
2. Your buy signal, I would go long would good trade management.
Quoting goodoboy
{quote} Very good chart for some examples 1. Would you have short, after price failed to hold confluence support? 2. Your buy signal, I would go long would good trade management.

I like this thread bro, its a good subject to choose.

I wouldnt have entered at all as a SHORT set up was not there and would not be good for money management if price decided to swing high at the Daily Low of the trend.... entering SHort at the brek of the lows is chasing 10% of the overall move as I swing trade rather than Day trade. Catching 10-20 pips on the breakout may suffice for somebody trading at £10 point but for me im on about £1 point as we speak so Im looking for larger moves with more conviction.


I dont enter breakout trades, I just dont like trading breakouts of lows/highs at all as manipulation in the market is so rife that you may win maybe 50% of your trades, if that.
Quoting MrBurns
{quote} I like this thread bro, its a good subject to choose. I wouldnt have entered at all as a SHORT set up was not there and would not be good for money management if price decided to swing high at the Daily Low of the trend.... entering SHort at the brek of the lows is chasing 10% of the overall move as I swing trade rather than Day trade. Catching 10-20 pips on the breakout may suffice for somebody trading at £10 point but for me im on about £1 point as we speak so Im looking for larger moves with more conviction. I dont enter breakout...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1397340001

Lets talk about this chart here for a moment. I am picturing this on a lower frame intraday chart. Cause its really good example.

For me I see range bound from left to right. Then failure to breakout of the range.

Look at the last leg about october as price comes back to support. At this moment I will be getting ready to enter long because price comes to support. Taking a long would have been good risk, even though stopped out. HOWEVER, the trend of the moment is down!!

Should I have been short once failure of resistance? Or atleast enter short on the retrace after price failed to break out resistance? Once support has broken, then I wait for fake breakout, then prepare to go short, because the trend is downward!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1397390400

Your number 5, why not go long before that below?

Thanks for sharing
Quoting MrBurns
{quote} I dont enter breakout trades, I just dont like trading breakouts of lows/highs at all as manipulation in the market is so rife that you may win maybe 50% of your trades, if that.
I agree with you. But I struggle with shorting resistance.
Quoting MrBurns
Harmonics are good for buying/selling corrections.... Fibonacci also. Check back on this in a month and see the results. FOR EXAMPLE .... Current AUD/NZD Daily Chart {image}
Ok, so your idea is before going long from a trend reversal (timeframe depends on preference, I use 3 min chart intraday entrys) is to wait til a key resistance is broken and NOT the choppy support and resistance (or back and forward we seee down there). Sooo many times I get caught up in the back and forth?

Isn't 16 March 20:00 a retracment in price action?
Quoting MrBurns
The expected retracement (entry)/ extension (TP) targets are as follows.. 38% - We can expect 161.8 Extension with good monentum as a target. 50% - 61.8% - We can expect 161.8 extension as a target. 78.6 - We can expect 1.27 Extension as a target. 86% we can expect 1.18 Extension as a target ( however these tend to be see at trend changing moments so the 1.618 extension can be expected once the trend takes hold) Its confusing at first but when you play around with it it becomes gold dust. A bit like the matrix lol maybe not

Thanks for sharing.

So you only use fib retracement and extensions on the daily chart?
Quoting goodoboy
{quote} Thanks for your example. But it is still a bit confusing. Because from your picture, buying the while the trend is downward is coutertrend. Buying when the trend is down is the same buying the reversal. Countertrend and reversal is the same. Maybe I am confused.
You are using argumentation of this type: horse has 4 legs and cow has 4 legs therefore horse = cow.

The difference feels quite natural to me: the one who is buying the reversal believes that the trend will reverse (he aims to hold his trade open for a longer time) while the one who is simply trading countertrend doesn't necessarily think that the trend will reverse therefore he might exit his buy trade much sooner or even sell if he believes that the downtrend will resume.
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  • Last Post: Apr 14, 2014 6:25am Apr 14, 2014 6:25am
Quoting goodoboy
Hello, Trying to practice my method of buying reversals. Tells me which makes sense. If trend is down at the moment and support is reached should I buy, 1. Buy the support after price comes and turns on the next candle. Would this not be countertrend trading.? 2. Wait for support to develop some small support and resistance range, and then buy the break out of the resistance? I am having trouble between understanding how buying a reversal is not the same as countertrend trading.

just remember ..."don't try to catch falling knife or flying bird " this is counter trend on the other hand give some cooling time ..let breathing means 1 st come out from last low or last high then buy or sell consider sup/res/candle/fibo...etc lots more or nothing just watch nacked chart ready/prepare your eye ball to catch /see..what is counter and what reversal....
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
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