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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #12,841
  • Apr 4, 2014 11:25am Apr 4, 2014 11:25am
Nice weekend everyone!
  • #12,842
  • Edited 5:29pm Apr 4, 2014 11:58am | Edited 5:29pm
Hey guys, I am pretty new here. Very good discussion happens here and thanks a lot for all the contributors. It really helps.
I am posting a type of analysis I have been doing for a while now. Completely technical. Please comment. Thanks.

Recent trade placed : Short at 172.309. Target-169.580 unless the trend exits the arc earlier.

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  • #12,843
  • Apr 5, 2014 1:52am Apr 5, 2014 1:52am
quick look @ GJ D1 charts. Position traders should be looking for GJ reversal confirm @ 170.40 - 170.80
key zone for reversal 170.00-40. If PA reverses here, very good risk/reward trade - LONG 170.40-80 SL 168.40
TP 174.60-174.80. This is a position trade and can take 3-6 weeks to reach TP.
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  • #12,844
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:02am Apr 5, 2014 2:02am
Quoting ruffryders
quick look @ GJ D1 charts. Position traders should be looking for GJ reversal confirm @ 170.40 - 170.80 key zone for reversal 170.00-40. If PA reverses here, very good risk/reward trade - LONG 170.40-80 SL 168.40 TP 174.60-174.80. This is a position trade and can take 3-6 weeks to reach TP. {image}
upon reversal in the highlighted area, this trade has 70-75% confidence of reaching TP @ 174.60-174.80. So this is a very good and high probability trade,
again suitable only for position traders, not day traders.
  • #12,845
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:09am Apr 6, 2014 2:09am
monday looks like a sell, but would be smart to wait for 40-60 pips pull back before selling.
  • #12,846
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:18am Apr 6, 2014 2:18am
Quoting krazy4
Hey guys, I am pretty new here. Very good discussion happens here and thanks a lot for all the contributors. It really helps. I am posting a type of analysis I have been doing for a while now. Completely technical. Please comment. Thanks. Recent trade placed : Short at 172.309. Target-169.580 unless the trend exits the arc earlier. {image}
unrealistic scenario. the D1 price is supported by a strong upwards sloping TL. PA goes up, and pulls back down to 50% fib. it did so last 3 times.
Not expecting anything different this time around. Pull back to 50% fib 170.20-40 and then upwards thrust to 174-175 area.
  • #12,847
  • Apr 6, 2014 5:07am Apr 6, 2014 5:07am
Quoting krazy4
Hey guys, I am pretty new here. Very good discussion happens here and thanks a lot for all the contributors. It really helps. I am posting a type of analysis I have been doing for a while now. Completely technical. Please comment. Thanks. Recent trade placed : Short at 172.309. Target-169.580 unless the trend exits the arc earlier. {image}
I am not sure about your 'roller coaster' view, but there is no doubt at all that price moves in circular or non-linear motions. Most moves on GJ follow diagonal TLs and occasionally horizontal resistance but it is the non-linear resistance that throws up total confusion. I saw resistance on Friday at 170.9 ish, but that was Friday. On Monday, I see resistance at 170.6, but if (any) bounce from about there does not pass back over about 171.8 ish, then your downside target may be conservative. Thank you for posting a slightly more creative view of price ( even though it may come to nothing).
  • #12,848
  • Apr 6, 2014 9:14am Apr 6, 2014 9:14am
Dark cloud cover on Daily and Weekly pin bar could be a deadly combo to break support :-)... still bearish engulf on monthly still valid... invalidation point will be 174.827 .... stock is dropping... equities gaining momentum... so we will see the most bearish setup of GJ of the year hehehe
Equities open and promptly sell off
  • #12,849
  • Apr 6, 2014 12:22pm Apr 6, 2014 12:22pm
yes, 194.xx, ...211.xx....then 219 area in general....on the way to 251.11 and beyond ....15M charts all the way, dangit.
  • #12,850
  • Edited 1:27pm Apr 6, 2014 12:46pm | Edited 1:27pm
GOOD AFTERNOON FOREX FACTORY MEMBERS and GUESTS

GBP/JPY and USD/JPY
ANALYSIS for Sunday, April 6, 2014

This analysis was not written with the news in mind. I trade Levels, not the news.

I have written the levels of support and resistance in the order in which price action would get to each level if price action should go up or if price action should go down.

Note every, very significant level as a point of interest to place your trade should price action get to it and place your trade with your stop loss above that noted significant level of resistance and your stop loss below the significant level of support.

Here we go:

I would first like to start off with a section of my previous post. Please see post, Wednesday, April 2, 2014, at 9:03am eastern

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post7378438

Here is part of the post:

Pay attention to any pullbacks on the USD/JPY and note, that if price action should reach 103.20 (because the bids at 103.20 are very very heavy), you should immediately buy the GBP/JPY and whatever the GBP/JPY price is trading at for re-entry towards the next resistance target of the USD/JPY.

So if price action on the USD/JPY get to 103.20, quickly look and see if it corresponds with the significant level on the GBP/JPY, that I suggested you look out for as support and trade it.

On Thursday April 3, 2014, at 11.52pm eastern, I gave you the Non-Farm Payroll Outlook as to what you can expect from the numbers.

Please see previous post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post7382853

Here is a part of the post:

USD/JPY
Support
103.245 -Between 160/190k support should hold
102.819 -Below 150k support should hold
102.254

What actually Happened?

The NON-FARM PAYROLL JOBS NUMBERS came out at 192k

What did I say you should expect to happen from that NON-FARM PAYROLL OUTLOOK post:

USD/JPY
Support
103.245 -Between 160/190k support should hold

What actually happened on both currency pairs GBP/JPY and USD/JPY?

The GBP/JPY traded to a low of 171.02 (Hint Hint Hint)
The USD/JPY traded to a low of 103.20 (Hint Hint Hint)

What were the significant levels that I point out to look for in order to re-enter long?

GBP/JPY
Support
172.08 -first level of significant support
171.07 -second level of significant support

USD/JPY
Support
103.245 strong strong support

Strong strong bids are at 1.0320 USD/JPY to support the bullish continuation which in turn supports the bullish continuation of the GBP/JPY.

After explaining all of that, what should happen next?

BUYERS PLAN

You should have bought the GBP/JPY at 171.07, looking to take some profits at every level of resistance the USD/JPY gets to. (please see resistance levels below)

USD/JPY
Resistance

103.500 Options Expiry 10am Eastern, Monday April 7, 2014 (caution) pay out 1.5 Billion
103.950 Do not ignore
104.00 Options Expiry 10am Eastern, Monday April 7, 2014 (caution) pay out 2 billion
104.332 Very Significant Level
104.851 Very Significant Level
105.00 Options Expiry 10am Eastern, Monday April 7, 2014 - pay out 2 billion
105.160 Very Significant Level


Greater confidence can be placed on the suggested buy trade because of the options barriers at 103.00 and below in conjunction with the fact that you would also be trading in the direction of the trend.

USD/JPY
Support

103.245 strong strong support
103.00 Options Expiry 10am Eastern, Monday April 7, 2014 (added support) pay out 2 Billion
102.95 Options Expiry 10am Eastern, Monday April 7, 2014 (additional support) pay out 400 million
102.819
102.75 Options Expiry 10am Eastern, Monday April 7, 2014 (Lots more support)
102.25 Options Expiry 10am Eastern, Monday April 7, 2014
102.00 Options Expiry 10am Eastern, Monday April 7, 2014


SELLERS PLAN

Look to SELL the GBP/JPY should the USD/JPY get to the resistance levels below.

USD/JPY
Resistance

104.332 Sell GBP/JPY
104.851 Sell GBP/JPY

Because of the Options Barriers, we may see a tight trading range on the USD/JPY so be on the look out for that. However some decent pips can still be made.

Traders the market does not move in a straight line. As the market moves, it waves UP, Down and Side Ways.

I have given you the levels to watch to place your trade, with the concept of the entry being stress free and I have given you the levels to watch where caution is advised to take some profit or exit your trade.

http://assets.forexfactory.net/image...im/whew%21.gif

HDA OUT

Once again, do not trade this plan blindly, it was written as a guide to help with your own analysis. Trade your Plan.
  • #12,851
  • Apr 6, 2014 12:55pm Apr 6, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting HDA
GOOD AFTERNOON FOREX FACTORY MEMBERS and GUESTS GBP/JPY and USD/JPY ANALYSIS for Sunday, April 6, 2014 This analysis was not written with the news in mind. I trade Levels, not the news. I have written the levels of support and resistance in the order in which price action would get to each level if price action should go up or if price action should go down. Note every, very significant level as a point of interest to place your trade should price action get to it and place your trade with your stop loss above that noted significant level of resistance...
HDA, great recap, thank you boss! I'm looking at starting trading GJ some time in May 2014, your insights and comments make a lot of sense and definately to be incorporated into my trading plan! Have a good one.
  • #12,852
  • Apr 6, 2014 12:58pm Apr 6, 2014 12:58pm
HDA, one quick question, if you don't mind. UJ options bariers, is that Bloomberg or Reuters ? I got the B terminal @ work, just hate swiping that finger to login, it's a shameful procedure. Just in case you are on Maldives/Seychelles on vacation and we can't get that data.
  • #12,853
  • Apr 6, 2014 1:10pm Apr 6, 2014 1:10pm
GJ could be a pullback in place, area worth watching for potential TP on pullback trade / reversal is 171.60-80 area.
  • #12,854
  • Apr 6, 2014 2:49pm Apr 6, 2014 2:49pm
excellent post HDA....great of you to set barriers to watch....thanks
  • #12,855
  • Apr 6, 2014 3:51pm Apr 6, 2014 3:51pm
What im doing on this pair at the moment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #12,856
  • Apr 6, 2014 4:19pm Apr 6, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
excellent post HDA....great of you to set barriers to watch....thanks
@Gbp/jpy:

Thank you

NO HINDSIGHT TRADING.

Please see post from GBP/USD Thread on Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 4:24pm eastern
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post7372370


Here is part of the post:

I would like to state for the record that I do not believe in hind-sight trading.

Hind-sight trading, for those who aren't familiar with the term, simply means, after the market has moved, traders would then post, why the market did what it did and how they profited from it. As a participating trader in any forum, if you are confident to share your plan after the market has moved, then you should be confident to share your plan before the market has moved.


HDA OUT

Will be away from FF for a couple months. Please see post below.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post7386363

Best of luck in all your trades
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post7383668
  • #12,857
  • Apr 6, 2014 4:22pm Apr 6, 2014 4:22pm
Quoting ruffryders
HDA, one quick question, if you don't mind. UJ options bariers, is that Bloomberg or Reuters ? I got the B terminal @ work, just hate swiping that finger to login, it's a shameful procedure. Just in case you are on Maldives/Seychelles on vacation and we can't get that data.
@ruffryders:

I would love to say, but I am not here to promote anyone's product for them. I just hope you can select one that gives you what you are looking for.

Respectfully,

HDA OUT
  • #12,858
  • Apr 6, 2014 4:23pm Apr 6, 2014 4:23pm
@Mr. Scott:

Take care

HDA OUT
  • #12,859
  • Apr 6, 2014 4:59pm Apr 6, 2014 4:59pm
Quoting HDA
@Mr. Scott: Take care HDA OUT
HDA,

Thank you. It was nice to have you back for a while. I understand you must keep your word.

Hope you can stop by sometime. Or we will see you in a couple of months.

Good luck and take care.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #12,860
  • Apr 6, 2014 5:03pm Apr 6, 2014 5:03pm
HDA -- thank you for the wisdom, and for taking the time to pull together and share so much useful information.
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