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EUR/AUD

  • #1,181
  • Apr 2, 2014 12:48am Apr 2, 2014 12:48am
Quoting jimi
{quote} edit: seems this crappy is buy on dip again.......................
I would it drops like a stone down the rock............................. but it doesn't.........................
  • #1,182
  • Apr 2, 2014 2:04am Apr 2, 2014 2:04am
Not able to break the strong support @ 4906
  • #1,183
  • Apr 2, 2014 2:33am Apr 2, 2014 2:33am
Quoting jimi
Not able to break the strong support @ 4906
and this shitty restarts long......closed all............
  • #1,184
  • Apr 2, 2014 7:32am Apr 2, 2014 7:32am
guys keep patient, pick your fights and stick to the plan, don't roll your positions from LONG to SHORT. pick one side and stick to it.

EU is DOWN , AU is range - going UP - this is strongly bearish on this pair.

this week I have following significant levels in play on EU AU

1.4888 - taken out - next up 4820
1.4820 - minor - next up 4750
1.4752 - minor level
1.4684 - mild support this week
1.4616 - strong support and final TP for this week on short.
  • #1,185
  • Apr 2, 2014 9:03am Apr 2, 2014 9:03am
Quoting ruffryders
guys keep patient, pick your fights and stick to the plan, don't roll your positions from LONG to SHORT. pick one side and stick to it. EU is DOWN , AU is range - going UP - this is strongly bearish on this pair. this week I have following significant levels in play on EU AU 1.4888 - taken out - next up 4820 1.4820 - minor - next up 4750 1.4752 - minor level 1.4684 - mild support this week 1.4616 - strong support and final TP for this week on short.
for EUAU to reach 4300-4400 in April, we need AU to rally towards 9400-9500 in April.
This is completely doable, after AU pulls back / dips to 9120-9170.

pullback expected on AU, and then strong continuation towards 9400.

AU currently trading @ 9230, so we are looking at 70-90 pips dip, before a nice follow through on EUAU comes out.
  • #1,186
  • Apr 3, 2014 4:32am Apr 3, 2014 4:32am
Quoting ruffryders
guys keep patient, pick your fights and stick to the plan, don't roll your positions from LONG to SHORT. pick one side and stick to it. EU is DOWN , AU is range - going UP - this is strongly bearish on this pair. this week I have following significant levels in play on EU AU 1.4888 - taken out - next up 4820 1.4820 - minor - next up 4750 1.4752 - minor level 1.4684 - mild support this week 1.4616 - strong support and final TP for this week on short.
I dont think we will be anywhere near 1.4616 for your TP this week.
But all the best with your analysis.
  • #1,187
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:34am Apr 3, 2014 7:34am
D1 candle on EUAU rejected month pivot and then consequently the week pivot.

With EU going down big time after introduction of QE was heavily debated, and with AU pretty much intact at current levels, next targets are 4600 - 4700.

Once 3700 on EU is taken out, EU AU will have a massive follow through.

watch this space.

RR
  • #1,188
  • Apr 3, 2014 7:35am Apr 3, 2014 7:35am
Quoting ruffryders
D1 candle on EUAU rejected month pivot and then consequently the week pivot. With EU going down big time after introduction of QE was heavily debated, and with AU pretty much intact at current levels, next targets are 4600 - 4700. Once 3700 on EU is taken out, EU AU will have a massive follow through. watch this space. RR
I added to my position. 25 mln EU short on EUAU.
  • #1,189
  • Apr 4, 2014 6:12am Apr 4, 2014 6:12am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} I added to my position. 25 mln EU short on EUAU.
Great minds think alike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,190
  • Apr 4, 2014 6:35am Apr 4, 2014 6:35am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} just to keep everyone updated, this above scenario discarded. I'm no longer awaiting a pullback to 5000 levels, just keep the put initiated @ 4850. +-100-150 pips don't effect my final positioning, which is TP 4300-4400 some time later this-next month.
@ruffryders:

Quoting HDA
{quote} @ruffryders: Congratulations on your trade You are correct, it went as high as 1.4902 - remember 1.49221 is resistance as pointed out earlier - and your indecision level as pointed on your beautifully presented chart is worth taking note off - You are seeing everything correctly. I only see green pips for you once you stick to your plan and take some profit before all the levels of support and resistance depending on how you plan on trading it. We are both seeing the exact same thing HDA OUT P.S. heading back to the sack, I'm tired...
CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!

HDA OUT
  • #1,191
  • Apr 4, 2014 6:39am Apr 4, 2014 6:39am
HDA, thanks, too early but.

Took an early loss of 100K this week on GU call options, covered, now bought another 10 mln of EUAU puts,
and also bought 5 mln AU calls. All to expire in May 2014.

Looks like we are enroute for some great downside soon here.

EU going down, with AU going up, guess what's the result gonna be on EUAU.
  • #1,192
  • Apr 4, 2014 6:53am Apr 4, 2014 6:53am
commodity currencies going higher, which is in line with strong demand zone on GOLD. see below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,193
  • Edited 7:16am Apr 4, 2014 6:59am | Edited 7:16am
Quoting ruffryders
HDA, thanks, too early but. Took an early loss of 100K this week on GU call options, covered, now bought another 10 mln of EUAU puts, and also bought 5 mln AU calls. All to expire in May 2014. Looks like we are enroute for some great downside soon here. EU going down, with AU going up, guess what's the result gonna be on EUAU.
eur/nzd are going south too, where till now aud get stronger, my question, how far eur/nzd can go? my opinion at least 1.5790
  • #1,194
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:01am Apr 4, 2014 7:01am
Quoting ruffryders
HDA, thanks, too early but. Took an early loss of 100K this week on GU call options, covered, now bought another 10 mln of EUAU puts, and also bought 5 mln AU calls. All to expire in May 2014. Looks like we are enroute for some great downside soon here. EU going down, with AU going up, guess what's the result gonna be on EUAU.
just got a reimburse on my previous GU loss in.
  • #1,195
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:07am Apr 4, 2014 7:07am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Good morning HDA and ruffryders, One area of interest for me. {image}
@Mr. Scott:

Please forgive me, I wasn't ignoring your post, just seeing it.

Yes you are correct - we are both seeing the same thing.

Been kindah busy and tired also

Please forgive me

HDA OUT

No colouring today too tired
  • #1,196
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:19am Apr 4, 2014 7:19am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Mr. Scott: Please forgive me, I wasn't ignoring you. Yes you are correct - we are both seeing the same thing. Been kindah busy and tired also Please forgive me HDA OUT No colouring today too tired
Thank you HDA. Your feedback is appreciated.

I understand.

You were very busy last night. Nice to see you and ruffryders analysis here.

Glad to see someone reads the nonsense I post here.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #1,197
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:26am Apr 4, 2014 7:26am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} just got a reimburse on my previous GU loss in.
@ruffryders:

CONGRATS!!!

Just remember:

Please see previous post, Monday, March 31, 2014:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post7374716

Here is part of the Post:

The Demand Zone is between 1.4630 and 1.4530. If price action brings the pair to those levels, look for strong buying opportunity.

However, the very significant level of Support is at 1.4405

On the daily chart, we are definitely trending downward and 1.44520 is the D Extension of the 0.618 retrace if you trade using fibs.

So be careful if you are holding shorts and watch the levels i've pointed out as we approach the Demand Zone area.

In terms of SWAPS, selling this pair and holding is to your advantage earning positive interest.

Happy Trading
  • #1,198
  • Apr 4, 2014 7:27am Apr 4, 2014 7:27am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Thank you HDA. Your feedback is appreciated. I understand. You were very busy last night. Nice to see you and ruffryders analysis here. Glad to see someone reads the nonsense I post here.
@Mr. Scott:

I've never seen you post nonsense before

HDA OUT
  • #1,199
  • Apr 4, 2014 1:07pm Apr 4, 2014 1:07pm
I UPDATED MY THREAD WITH DETAILED ANALYSIS AND REVIEW OF AU DIRECTION, AU DIRECTION IS THE MAIN THEME FOR TRADING EU AU IN THE NEXT 4-6 WEEKS, HERE'S THE LINK http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post7385194

NOW SOME OF YOU POSTED NEGATIVE COMMENTS, ETC, I COULDN'T CARE LESS ABOUT THAT, I TRADE MY OWN SYSTEM BASED ON STATISTICS, PROBABILITIES AND 10+ YEARS OF EXPERIENCE. YOU CAN KNOCK YOURSELF OUT WITH THE NEGATIVE CRAP, THANKS.
  • #1,200
  • Apr 4, 2014 3:38pm Apr 4, 2014 3:38pm
Quoting ruffryders
guys keep patient, pick your fights and stick to the plan, don't roll your positions from LONG to SHORT. pick one side and stick to it. EU is DOWN , AU is range - going UP - this is strongly bearish on this pair. this week I have following significant levels in play on EU AU 1.4888 - taken out - next up 4820 1.4820 - minor - next up 4750 1.4752 - minor level 1.4684 - mild support this week 1.4616 - strong support and final TP for this week on short.

RR so far very impressive I congratulate you on your analysis so far, but will it drop another 80pips to 1.4616 by Sunday night or does the time zone that we are in make a vast difference?
We will wait and see unless you have got more info.
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