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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #366,781
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:30am Mar 3, 2014 10:30am
Quoting palabara
{quote} Lets be realistic.. Lets just think common sense.. Lets you and me. I owe you Money. You come to me and be like if you don't stop bullying the kids in the playground.. I want my money back in Gold. I'm going to look at you and be like what if I don't comply?! What are you going to do?! lets put this on a bigger scale.. Because China makes demands.. What are they going to do?! Don't take U.S debt anymore.. NOPE -- They need U.S and this stage they need it very badly! Their economy is constricting and if they say No U.S then they will collapse....
China is buying US treasuries, that is how the debt is refinanced.If China will say that they will be byuing the new debt with repayment in gold, it will mean no cash from China, country with the biggest trade balance, i.e. QE XXXXX and buck devaluation. US needs to keep other countries byuing the UST to refinance existing debt and print money at minimum.
  • #366,782
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:31am Mar 3, 2014 10:31am
I am more happy that manufacturing PMI was positive
signal USD is coming back after getting killed for months
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,783
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:31am Mar 3, 2014 10:31am
GU Daily

Note the Harami that initiated the change of trend, has now been met with a harami and confirming red candle to end last weeks upward move.
The view for tomorrow will be bearish for cable.

Oblique resistance and support are no longer being respected and the last swing high is a lower high. Price has become compressed in recent times and there is evidence to suggest that this is perhaps very close to the top.

I've previously charted that we were popping around critical levels and this rejection (with thanks to the Ukraine and Russia) is significant enough to suggest that signs of full trend change should be reviewed.

Break of support 1.6614; Oblique support 1.64 and final break or should you note consistent closes below 1.63 you should accept that the trend has changed.

I'm not calling a top but tomorrow is bearish.
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  • #366,784
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:32am Mar 3, 2014 10:32am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} So Russia not "launching assault on Ukraine" as FF news article below put it would actually make EU/GB a burning building? http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=473627 See this is the part that I don't get. EU/GB and the rest of the West is such hypocrite. When Russia does get involved, they persecute Russia for being totalitarian and this and that and when Russia stays out of the trouble, they all think it's a crisis and no doubt will probably blame Russia on this one. Ukraine is NOT part of Russia anymore. It's an...
Russia supplies Gas to the EU.. I don't want to quote statistics.. I'm to lazy to look it up and be correct bla bla bla But they supply a good amount of gas via gas lines directly to EU.. If say for shits and giggles.. EU backs with U.S to Punish With sanctions Russia.. Then Russia will Punish EU with Cutting Gas.. To the EU.. What that means is.. higher gas prices = higher energy costs.. = Hurts economy! = Bad reports = bad for business = unemployment = bad for recovery.

So The Risk is that if they cut the gas.. because they'll be like you want to push us will push you, and Russia can and will do it, they did in the past. Its not good, now Oil is going up too and Gas going up.. = VERY high energy costs in EU they pay for gas by the litter so imagine.. How much that will cost.. Hrm go back to 2008 when it was $7-8 a LITTER! OUCH! It all reflects back.. Because high energy = raising costs.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #366,785
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:33am Mar 3, 2014 10:33am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Ukraine is NOT part of Russia anymore. It's an independant country and it practices FREE DEMOCRACY. WHY would Russia want to get involved in s*** that's not even its country?
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact...atters-russia/
http://rt.com/news/crimea-facts-protests-politics-945/
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #366,786
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:34am Mar 3, 2014 10:34am
Quoting JimmyC
GU Daily Note the Harami that initiated the change of trend, has now been met with a harami and confirming red candle to end last weeks upward move. The view for tomorrow will be bearish for cable. Oblique resistance and support are no longer being respected and the last swing high is a lower high. Price has become compressed in recent times and there is evidence to suggest that this is perhaps very close to the top. I've previously charted that we were popping around critical levels and this rejection (with thanks to the Ukraine and Russia) is...

does it matter that your haramis are sunday candles?
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #366,787
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:36am Mar 3, 2014 10:36am
Quoting Davit
I am more happy that manufacturing PMI was positive signal USD is coming back after getting killed for months
Indeed

DXY Daily Candle Chart

Harami + large green candle = Bullish for $ tomorrow

GU direction cannot be clearer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY Daily Candle Chart.png Size: 17 KB
  • #366,788
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:37am Mar 3, 2014 10:37am
Quoting Davit
I am more happy that manufacturing PMI was positive signal USD is coming back after getting killed for months
agreed here, but where to long it is the question. eur and gbp wont drop. usdjpy is gonna be healine risk prone for weeks. aud has a mind of its own. CAD has already dropped a fair bit.

things have definitely been tough the past 3-4 weeks indeed.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #366,789
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:38am Mar 3, 2014 10:38am
The current crisis is meaningless. Ukraine is meaningless, even Russia.
Interestingly, it is only in a few years, if there is such a crisis with China. Then you should be worried, not yet.

PEACE !
  • #366,790
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:39am Mar 3, 2014 10:39am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} does it matter that your haramis are sunday candles?
Sir

No, and tell you why, the issue that creates the Harami, is the GAP or window.
The force of change in price, being so big that it causes the GAP low TF and Harami on Daily is the indication of trend change you need.

Good question but no its the GAP the Harami draws reference to that you're looking for
  • #366,791
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:39am Mar 3, 2014 10:39am
Quoting JimmyC
GU Daily Note the Harami that initiated the change of trend, has now been met with a harami and confirming red candle to end last weeks upward move. The view for tomorrow will be bearish for cable. Oblique resistance and support are no longer being respected and the last swing high is a lower high. Price has become compressed in recent times and there is evidence to suggest that this is perhaps very close to the top. I've previously charted that we were popping around critical levels and this rejection (with thanks to the Ukraine and Russia) is...
Beautiful Jimmy
Once applied AForks area you circled is middle fork which is strong support once broken lower fork is target.
According to Andrews theory it has 80% chance of hitting lower median line if middle line is violated.
Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.daily.png Size: 34 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,792
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:42am Mar 3, 2014 10:42am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} agreed here, but where to long it is the question. eur and gbp wont drop. usdjpy is gonna be healine risk prone for weeks. aud has a mind of its own. CAD has already dropped a fair bit. things have definitely been tough the past 3-4 weeks indeed.
I might close everything at 65 (if it gets there)and stop trading cable.Don't like this pair.
EU Swissy NU is enough for me.

I have never experienced such fake 100pip moves on any pair.Just when you think this shit is tanking it takes off like a rocket up again.
Entire February was frustrating to me.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #366,793
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:44am Mar 3, 2014 10:44am
Quoting palabara
{quote} Russia supplies Gas to the EU.. I don't want to quote statistics.. I'm to lazy to look it up and be correct bla bla bla But they supply a good amount of gas via gas lines directly to EU.. If say for shits and giggles.. EU backs with U.S to Punish With sanctions Russia.. Then Russia will Punish EU with Cutting Gas.. To the EU.. What that means is.. higher gas prices = higher energy costs.. = Hurts economy! = Bad reports = bad for business = unemployment = bad for recovery. So The Risk is that if they cut the gas.. because they'll be like...
OK Fine I get the gas part (Personally, I think it's about time EU and GB learns to use the bathroom instead of getting so much gas and fart all over the place but anyway) but they are STAYING OUT in this case. They are signalling that they are cutting gas by not invading Ukraine? I am still not seeing the connection here.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #366,794
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:47am Mar 3, 2014 10:47am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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looks like we could be heading for the 200sma, its up and down for a few days or a big sell off
  • #366,795
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:48am Mar 3, 2014 10:48am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I might close everything at 65 and stop trading cable.Don't like this pair. EU Swissy NU is enough for me.
it will turn at some point, but ive already blown enough cash trying to go long USD. Especially vs EUR and GBP. Think i'm going to wait until we are back below 1.3700 and 1.6600 to get involved. Maybe if anything this Ukraine thing will cut down on the equity inflows to europe and reduce that source of EUR support.

US data has been look good the past couple of days but its like the market has completely ignored it.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #366,796
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:51am Mar 3, 2014 10:51am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I might close everything at 65 (if it gets there)and stop trading cable.Don't like this pair. EU Swissy NU is enough for me. I have never experienced such fake 100pip moves on any pair.Just when you think this shit is tanking it takes off like a rocket up again. Entire February was frustrating to me.
i have been trading gold since Thursday , your getting better movement and a clear trending line at this moment, ??
  • #366,797
  • Edited 11:21am Mar 3, 2014 10:55am | Edited 11:21am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I might close everything at 65 (if it gets there)and stop trading cable.Don't like this pair. EU Swissy NU is enough for me. I have never experienced such fake 100pip moves on any pair.Just when you think this shit is tanking it takes off like a rocket up again. Entire February was frustrating to me.
have a look ,nice moves
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #366,798
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:56am Mar 3, 2014 10:56am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} OK Fine I get the gas part (Personally, I think it's about time EU and GB learns to use the bathroom instead of getting so much gas and fart all over the place but anyway) but they are STAYING OUT in this case. They are signalling that they are cutting gas by not invading Ukraine? I am still not seeing the connection here.
The short answer is.. Its a risk, and markets don't like risk. The conflict is in Europe, and they have a vested interest. The Breaking news apparently, was that someone said that Russia gave an Ultimatum to Ukraine by 5 AM to surrender or they attack. I didn't hear that part, but then Russia said they didn't go NO ultimatum, and that they are just protecting their interests.. Either way.. Its going to be causing a lot more volatility.. and going to be a long term conflict so the price of EU and UK and other currencies are all going to shift to new levels.

I'm continuing with my short bias.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #366,799
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:57am Mar 3, 2014 10:57am
Quoting mvp77
The current crisis is meaningless. Ukraine is meaningless, even Russia. Interestingly, it is only in a few years, if there is such a crisis with China. Then you should be worried, not yet. PEACE !
Yep, it's a sideshow IMO.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #366,800
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:57am Mar 3, 2014 10:57am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I might close everything at 65 (if it gets there)and stop trading cable.Don't like this pair. EU Swissy NU is enough for me. I have never experienced such fake 100pip moves on any pair.Just when you think this shit is tanking it takes off like a rocket up again. Entire February was frustrating to me.
lol yes, February was very frustrating. Yet holding the guns is what its all about!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
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