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Attachments: Frankfort Breakout EA
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Frankfort Breakout EA

  • #41
  • Jan 28, 2014 3:04am Jan 28, 2014 3:04am
Quoting PIP Combine
{quote} Bull.bear, % of ATR is if the 30 Day ATR is 100 pips, then 50% would be a TP of 50 pips or in your 70% example it would be 70 pips. Couple questions. Why do you believe it is better to use the MA cross vs. a % of ATR? Can you provide some more examples and the difference between the two in terms of TP? Also, are you just referring to the exit or entry as well? Thanks for the comment and chart...
There is no right or wrong if to use % of ATR. But i personally think that because this thread system is breakout, mean volatility must be increased = ATR value must be increased as well. So when ATR line crossover MA line to downside, mean that price bar is weakness, breakout is end and is going to downside, mean position must be exited, from what i understand according to the ATR formula.

If that day no breakout, and it is ranging, then this rule ATR with MA is incorrect since it has no volatile. And of course you will lose your position.

If you based on % of ATR, it is just a reference. You can say that any number % of ATR is the TP, but current day price is not necessary to hit TP. Maybe because as per your experience, so you can assume that the x% of ATR is suitable for this TP. However, you have no wrong because based on your observation and research.

Thanks.
  • #42
  • Jan 28, 2014 3:11am Jan 28, 2014 3:11am
Maybe by using ATR with MA crossover as entry could be right option, because volatility is increasing. If by using timing/Frankfort breakout, i don't think it is that optimal. Anyway need to prove it rather than said.

Just my 2cents.
  • #43
  • Jan 28, 2014 5:25pm Jan 28, 2014 5:25pm
Performance by pair, so far this month...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Frankfurt Breakout - Pairs Performance 1-28-14.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #44
  • Jan 29, 2014 8:17pm Jan 29, 2014 8:17pm
Pip, thanks for your quick reply. Your late entries are what had me confused. I couldn't remember where I had to go to in order to send this as a pp so I would suggest you scrub it when you have read it as it doesn't add anything to the thread.
Bob
  • #45
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:16pm Jan 30, 2014 3:16pm
Quoting ~bull.bear~
What do you mean by % of ATR? Example 70% of ATR means 0.70 x current breakout ATR value 0.013 = 91 pips TP ? I think it is better to use MA in ATR. See the screenshot here. ATR line break MA = Exit because of price is going to reverse (ATR value drop) {image}
Bull.Bear, what are the settings of the ATR - MA indicators on your chart? Might test the exit to see how it fairs...
  • #46
  • Edited 2:16am Jan 31, 2014 1:38am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting PIP Combine
{quote} Bull.Bear, what are the settings of the ATR - MA indicators on your chart? Might test the exit to see how it fairs...
I think the setting fall under this range.

ATR: 240 to 360 in 15M chart (It is converted from 1H chart - 60 to 90)
MA: 20 to 60 in 15M chart

I personally think ATR-240 + MA-20 is good, because MA is sensitive to volatility, but volatility is based on 1 hour movement.

Please note if the movement is trending, then this method works.
This method only measure if volatility is increased and direction is unknown.
  • #47
  • Feb 2, 2014 7:03am Feb 2, 2014 7:03am
Very good results so far !
  • #48
  • Feb 2, 2014 8:03am Feb 2, 2014 8:03am
Conclusions from January

Instruments to Trade - Here is the chart of the performance by pair. Before we make judgement on removing any, I believe we need another month or two of data. Those of you who remember statistics, we need a decent sample size to make a conclusion about performance. However, my feeling on the list below the line, some of those commondity & USD based pairs struggle to move enough to reach the 50% ATR in Europe and have more volatility in NY. So, we will continue trading all pairs in Feb for more data.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Frankfurt Breakout - Pairs Performance Jan 2014.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #49
  • Feb 2, 2014 9:25am Feb 2, 2014 9:25am
Conclusions from January (Con't)

Entries - Using the input from Jason W about inside bars / Asian H/L, I believe has some real potential to improve these results. See post #35 for this example and thanks Jason. January had about 62% win rate, so perhaps screening out some trades with this additional criteria may be able to improve the %. I have enclosed the G/CHF, as an example. You can see in the first two examples, when Asia is also cleared with Frankfort, trade goes. The second variable as I mentioned in post #1, prior zones provide good S/R. You can see on the blue lines where trades would trigger we are getting ready to run into a prior zone. In February I am going to adjust entries to add these filters to trades. Should be interesting to see if we improve win % in February...

PS. Sorry for the cluttered chart, but only way to show the theory here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Frankfurt Breakout - Asian & Past Zones Example.jpg Size: 167 KB
  • #50
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:09pm Feb 3, 2014 5:09pm
A couple examples of a trade I took today - GU and one I passed on - EU with new filtering criteria. The EU would have been slightly profitable, but did not have the movement of the GBP...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 2-3-14.jpg Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 2-3-14.jpg Size: 127 KB
  • #51
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:27pm Feb 3, 2014 5:27pm
Quoting Capelli
Very good results so far !
Capelli, thanks for the kind words. Results have exceeded my expectations, however the market is always looming to level the playing field.

Best of trading to you...
  • #52
  • Feb 4, 2014 1:59am Feb 4, 2014 1:59am
Thanks PIP Combine, for wonderful system my live trade with it. stop loss move to BE. lets see now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh1.png Size: 50 KB
  • #53
  • Feb 4, 2014 5:24pm Feb 4, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting jeetvirk
Thanks PIP Combine, for wonderful system my live trade with it. stop loss move to BE. lets see now {image}
Your welcome. Looks like the trade is going your way...
  • #54
  • Feb 4, 2014 7:43pm Feb 4, 2014 7:43pm
Fetch 80 pips on this, cose at 1:1 RR now ready for today..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh1.png Size: 47 KB
  • #55
  • Feb 5, 2014 2:28am Feb 5, 2014 2:28am
missed this entry today.. ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh1.png Size: 45 KB
  • #56
  • Feb 5, 2014 8:35am Feb 5, 2014 8:35am
i missed this trade today not at home during Frankfurt open, This is easy guys picture speaks it self..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchfh1.png Size: 39 KB
  • #57
  • Feb 5, 2014 5:29pm Feb 5, 2014 5:29pm
Looking back at last month, I only had 1 trade (GBP/CHF) which had any movement prior to the rate announcements for GBP and EUR. Almost all the instruments ranged prior to the events. I am going to be very cautious about taking any trades before 7AM (NY time) unless the break has momentum. A good day to sleep in and wait after the announcements...
  • #58
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:21am Feb 6, 2014 2:21am
Move up or down..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh1.png Size: 51 KB
  • #59
  • Feb 7, 2014 2:33am Feb 7, 2014 2:33am
Today's trade its a loss as u can see my entry was at wrong place. But no worries this is forex.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaudh1.png Size: 44 KB
  • #60
  • Feb 12, 2014 6:17am Feb 12, 2014 6:17am
I made an EA for this and back tested.. It was profitable on some pairs after creating a rule to move your SL to BE when the market moves in your favour to protect yourself from volatility on the open. I think we would need to look at some more rules that allow us to follow the trending market and perhaps looking at the other sessions as well.. Just my thoughts
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