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Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)

  • #261
  • Jan 25, 2014 3:08am Jan 25, 2014 3:08am
Proxy. I posted the charts hoping it can help with your gambling strategy but I was itching to add look for levels and inside bars but this would take it into actual trading strategy so lets stick to the BB ma
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #262
  • Jan 25, 2014 3:09am Jan 25, 2014 3:09am
oi oi T hope your good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #263
  • Jan 25, 2014 3:27am Jan 25, 2014 3:27am
Attached Image


for the room, this chart posted before .What are we looking for
A- to long
B- to short
C - do both
My simple charts show an entry regarding Proxys BB gambling method for consideration
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ccc.PNG Size: 33 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #264
  • Jan 25, 2014 3:33am Jan 25, 2014 3:33am
Quoting billytt
{image} for the room, this chart posted before .What are we looking for A- to long B- to short C - do both My simple charts show an entry regarding Proxys BB gambling method for consideration{image}

Alls I was saying is that your idea of using the BB Moving average, commonly known as a Simple moving average and an Exponential moving average to trigger trades on any time frame, doesn't even qualify for the rookie level.

Of course, when you mention the Simple Moving Average as the BB moving average, really, what is somebody to expect by the rest of the post? That it will make more sense? That it will actually contain anything reasonable or relevant?



Code up your EA Billy.

Let's see how she flys next week!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #265
  • Jan 25, 2014 4:16am Jan 25, 2014 4:16am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I dont use fundamentals in this strategy.Maybe its a mistake, but just to keep it simple.
Sorry. In the final analysis, there is really nothing that any trader can suggest about what you are doing, that will change the final outcome. Have fun with it, and hope you learn a thing or two.
  • #266
  • Jan 25, 2014 4:56am Jan 25, 2014 4:56am
are you a trader.PNG

Proxy, Responding to a few people who have pinged me.
Nearly every EA ever made will fail,
If they didn't fail an EA would of been made years ago and everyone will be using it and be RICH.
A good trader doesn't need an EA.
Robot systems can work in the right conditions but they cannot reason or think so these too will fail.
Gambling method, pick your trigger which can be anything associated with a level such as high/low, breakout, retrace , cross over and stick to the method.
Hope I am helping
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #267
  • Jan 25, 2014 5:17am Jan 25, 2014 5:17am
That's true at our level but bear in mind that the big boys use highly sophisticated software/algorithms.
  • #268
  • Jan 25, 2014 5:30am Jan 25, 2014 5:30am
Quoting handy148
That's true at our level but bear in mind that the big boys use highly sophisticated software/algorithms.
Is that why two noble prize winning economists had to go bankrupt.

The human brain can still outdo the best supercomputer in recognizing stuff: like good trade setups.

Having said that, the algorithms help immensely, but they cannot keep you from lapses in judgement. We keep hearing in the news of "rogue traders" at the big houses, who go belly up, get sued or arrested for fraud... And they had the best equipment helping them that money can buy.

So don't get intimidated by those teams of professionals, sitting around their massed screens eyeing every transaction that takes place anywhere in the world.

They can be wrong ---can be wrong---can be wrong.

(Of course, so can I)
  • #269
  • Jan 25, 2014 7:32am Jan 25, 2014 7:32am
Quoting handy148
That's true at our level but bear in mind that the big boys use highly sophisticated software/algorithms.
Hi, I am sure that the highly sophisticated software of the big boys would of filtered down to everyday traders but obviously it hasn't so I would say they do not exist.
I am sure they are more than able to just plod along as long as nothing major happens and not lets forget the EA industry is worth millions of £££- $$$
Robots are wonderful they can build cars even park them unaided, fly planes, play chess it is the thinking part they cannot do.
Anyway bud good question and one can easily google EAs and check it out, and do not forget a lot of scammers are out there trying to trade their losing ideas
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #270
  • Jan 25, 2014 8:06am Jan 25, 2014 8:06am
Quoting billytt
are you a trader.PNG Proxy, Responding to a few people who have pinged me. Nearly every EA ever made will fail, If they didn't fail an EA would of been made years ago and everyone will be using it and be RICH. A good trader doesn't need an EA. Robot systems can work in the right conditions but they cannot reason or think so these too will fail. Gambling method, pick your trigger which can be anything associated with a level such as high/low, breakout, retrace...
Don't be ignorant. You don't know does not mean that good EA doesn't
exist like if you don't believe God doesn't mean He does't exist.
  • #271
  • Jan 25, 2014 8:14am Jan 25, 2014 8:14am
Quoting billytt
are you a trader.PNG Proxy, Responding to a few people who have pinged me. Nearly every EA ever made will fail, If they didn't fail an EA would of been made years ago and everyone will be using it and be RICH. A good trader doesn't need an EA. Robot systems can work in the right conditions but they cannot reason or think so these too will fail. Gambling method, pick your trigger which can be anything associated with a level such as high/low, breakout,...

Now I get it...

You post the Pinnochio pic autograph when you contradict one of your previous posts.

Kind of a way of letting the rest of us know, what you don't know.

The whole Hunt for Red October, ping thing, still eludes me...but I will go all Forest Gump in my assumption on that one...
"Stupid is, as Stupid does".

So, does this mean we won't get to see your EA in action next week?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #272
  • Jan 25, 2014 8:31am Jan 25, 2014 8:31am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Master of automation...I am not... See, here's the thing... I don't know code, but I do know market. I have an idea that any single trigger and especially as applied to an M1 chart is destined to fail. Be it working with a stop loss or tight range for TP, there is the eventuality that they will all end up similar to how Proxies EA did this week. It's really more so a take on working a cost average concept and dynamic range that I think is the key to prosperity through a gamble and could quite conceivably be applied to any of the market systems...
I got it. We are all walking the same path together and we each bring a particular skill set. Great way to look at it, and hopefully this thread will go on to evolve into a great tool for others.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #273
  • Edited 9:59am Jan 25, 2014 8:39am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Now I get it... You post the Pinnochio pic autograph when you contradict one of your previous posts. Kind of a way of letting the rest of us know, what you don't know. The whole Hunt for Red October, ping thing, still eludes me...but I will go all Forest Gump in my assumption on that one... "Stupid is, as Stupid does". So, does this mean we won't get to see your EA in action next week?
This is my last post of this thread, since there is nothing to learn here, nor no one to teach. Billyt, please resist taking the bait. There has already been too much fighting on this, and the previous, thread. Magix, you are a no nothing trouble maker, and if Proximus were smart, he'd put you on the ignore list, too. Take care guys, and have a good weekend.

Edit: Sorry about the "smart" comment. Instead, maybe, "Proximus, please consider putting Magix on ignore."
  • #274
  • Jan 25, 2014 8:39am Jan 25, 2014 8:39am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Now I get it... You post the Pinnochio pic autograph when you contradict one of your previous posts. Kind of a way of letting the rest of us know, what you don't know. The whole Hunt for Red October, ping thing, still eludes me...but I will go all Forest Gump in my assumption on that one... "Stupid is, as Stupid does". So, does this mean we won't get to see your EA in action next week?
I think billy is someone who was trading at the right moment, got lucky, and got out.

I don't think there is any skill other than posting hindsight analysis. The hard right edge eludes him.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #275
  • Jan 25, 2014 8:42am Jan 25, 2014 8:42am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} This is my last post of this thread, since there is nothing to learn here, nor no one to teach. Billyt, please resist taking the bait. There has already been too much fighting on this, and the previous, thread. Magix, you are a no nothing trouble maker, and if Proximus were smart, he'd put you on the ignore list, too. Take care guys, and have a good weekend.
Disagree. Every time a post is made, the thread winds up on the hot list, and people browsing read the post. Keep posting GEfx, you have posting well. Proximus, will come back and look as he evolves.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #276
  • Jan 25, 2014 9:06am Jan 25, 2014 9:06am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} This is my last post of this thread
That's good. Be one less poster we have to try and look past in developing. Really, all you seemingly are is a naysayer with nothing to actually add.

Can't help wondering if you have read the thread title...

Statistical Gambling.

Quoting GEfx
Magix, you are a no nothing trouble maker, and if Proximus were smart, he'd put you on the ignore list, too.
Now this statement is just flat out, untrue.

I am a lot more than just a trouble maker. Sure I stir the pot every once in a while, but this in itself helps to allow new ideas to bubble to the surface...I for one have taken a step outside of my own comfy little world to join in on the fun...while you continue to piss and moan.

But I do like how you DARE Prox to put me on the iggy list.

Implying that he is stupid if he doesn't see things your way...Yeah buddy, this is productive.

But, now that we are done having to read through your thoughts, the rest of us can just go CRAZY!

I can feel it, it's about to get all stupid up inside of this Bitch!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #277
  • Jan 25, 2014 9:42am Jan 25, 2014 9:42am
My Actual thoughts on the Statistical side of Statistical Gambling...and much the reason for the logic I have implemented.

If you flip a coin and consistently guess that it will land head side up each and every time, the odds of you being correct are 50/50.

If you change your guess per flip, these odds drop.

Sure you might get lucky and beat the 50/50 odds, but for how long?

I have said before but will repeat for the idea of the thread, that if you consistently take a long trade, even in a short market, eventually, you are going to be correct as even a broken clock can be right at least 2x per day.

So...

If you are taking a single trip signal that will hold until prosperous, and close down at any set level by way of taking a loss, how far ahead of the market are you actually "GUESSING", that it won't take the exact same trigger right after you have closed in loss?

If you are taking a single trip signal, how can you have any idea how far the market will actually carry that trade? Again, another blind guess.

Under the assumption that the broken clock will be correct 2x per day, I have a fairly high hit rate on a single set of market specific criteria that I am using for a trigger. On the worst days, I am still going to assume that it will be correct at least 2x in any single direction. Because it is trading both sides of the market, that actually gives it a better chance to come up being correct possibly 4x per day.

Each and every market day is different as is the range of each market relevant session. London, TK, NY all trade inside of the same Market Daily Candle, but quite often will stay inside of the range created by the London Session. Any break outs above or below are an "almost", guaranteed retrace.

So...If I can stay and add longs until I am correct, knowing that another long signal might be just down the way, why wouldn't I take it under basic market retrace assumption? If I know that it the market will vary in ranges, per day and per sessional movement, why wouldn't I allow market to Dynamically set the range? Even at a negative net close for cost averaged trades, the range should be great enough to limit the size of loss, by allowing a high probability trigger to find these pivotal points.

So...
Long until Short.
Short until Long.
Cost average along the way.
and
Let the market decide how much profit will be allotted per directional trade...

Make sense?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #278
  • Jan 25, 2014 10:05am Jan 25, 2014 10:05am
Quoting Magix
My Actual thoughts on the Statistical side of Statistical Gambling...and much the reason for the logic I have implemented. If you flip a coin and consistently guess that it will land head side up each and every time, the odds of you being correct are 50/50. If you change your guess per flip, these odds drop. Sure you might get lucky and beat the 50/50 odds, but for how long? I have said before but will repeat for the idea of the thread, that if you consistently take a long trade, even in a short market, eventually, you are going to be correct as...

Especially :"Each and every market day is different as is the range of each market relevant session. London, TK, NY all trade inside of the same Market Daily Candle, but quite often will stay inside of the range created by the London Session. Any break outs above or below are an "almost", guaranteed retrace".

My instincts tell me this is quite correct: that the GBP has influence far beyond the size of their economy is pretty well accepted...

Intend to keep an eye out for such Breakouts catch their statistics in attempt to better understand why, and what reasons may cause this tendency to fail.
Good eye.

Thank you , Magix
  • #279
  • Jan 25, 2014 10:07am Jan 25, 2014 10:07am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Disagree. Every time a post is made, the thread winds up on the hot list, and people browsing read the post. Keep posting GEfx, you have posting well. Proximus, will come back and look as he evolves.
OK, let me change my comment about participating to only participating when the discussion is trading. I'm a trader, not a gambler. I'll admit to not knowing everything about trading, and knowing nothing about gambling. I do have a trading journal, but there is nothing about gambling there -- lol.
  • #280
  • Jan 25, 2014 10:16am Jan 25, 2014 10:16am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} OK, let me change my comment about participating to only participating when the discussion is trading. I'm a trader, not a gambler. I'll admit to not knowing everything about trading, and knowing nothing about gambling. I do have a trading journal, but there is nothing about gambling there -- lol.
I think we are all gambling to a certain degree simply because we are not 100% certain that a trade will work. I think the key to trading is learning how to gamble intelligently, and as Rap said, even firms like LTCM and Lehman do not get this right all of the time.

Trading is like baseball, if you can get it right just 40% of the time you are going to be a hall of famer.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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