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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,881
  • Jan 19, 2014 8:22am Jan 19, 2014 8:22am
Quoting billytt
Hi SP. Hope you and family are good. Dont let the knockers here get you down. I am sure they wont. Take care
Things are good Billy. Boys are growing very fast.
  • #3,882
  • Jan 19, 2014 1:13pm Jan 19, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} My news trades are taken fifteen minutes after the announcement. My stop is always in place. The trade is taken after the spreads normalize and the news has been digested.
Thank you.
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,883
  • Jan 19, 2014 2:36pm Jan 19, 2014 2:36pm
SP, 1 year is good, 1 month is not.

And I agree, there is no obligation to prove yourself if you are not asking for money.

However, my posts here are not implying you should do anything, rather they point out that it is not logical to worship any at the Factory without viewing a verified account first. Unfortunately it is the culture here at FF and at most forums. We have an overwhelming number of "heroes" and "teachers", 99.6% of them are unverified, leading so many astray.

Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I will answer this once. I won't get into a pissing match. If I was selling something I would feel a need to prove my performance. I have nothing to sell but based on your posts I would guess that maybe you do. I showed a month of live trades and it isn't good enough. If I showed a year it wouldn't be good enough. The fxtrade account you are referencing is from a guy selling trading coaching. He should have to prove his ability as he wants your money.
  • #3,884
  • Jan 19, 2014 2:58pm Jan 19, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting PeterE
SP, 1 year is good, 1 month is not. And I agree, there is no obligation to prove yourself if you are not asking for money. However, my posts here are not implying you should do anything, rather they point out that it is not logical to worship any at the Factory without viewing a verified account first. Unfortunately it is the culture here at FF and at most forums. We have an overwhelming number of "heroes" and "teachers", 99.6% of them are unverified, leading so many astray. {quote}
does that also mean we should take no notice of anything you say, because you have not shown a verified account?

This is an apples and oranges argument, I have heard of many many people unhappy with teachings from people with "verified accounts" over much longer periods than 1 year.

Let people worship who they want and for whatever reason, the best lessons in trading come from within anyway, people will find their own path, some will never make it and a few will.
tradewith60
  • #3,885
  • Jan 19, 2014 2:58pm Jan 19, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting PeterE
SP, 1 year is good, 1 month is not. And I agree, there is no obligation to prove yourself if you are not asking for money. However, my posts here are not implying you should do anything, rather they point out that it is not logical to worship any at the Factory without viewing a verified account first. Unfortunately it is the culture here at FF and at most forums. We have an overwhelming number of "heroes" and "teachers", 99.6% of them are unverified, leading so many astray. {quote}
Peter. Give SP a break. I do not see eye to eye with him on all matters trading but I do have a lot of respect for him. He trades a type of open range breakout. This is a confirmed good strategy and trading 15 mins after news is also a good confirmed strategy. Using these strats alone he can shout from the roof tops he is on to a winner.perhaps they need tweaking but they are good strats. Read and learn. Be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #3,886
  • Jan 19, 2014 3:28pm Jan 19, 2014 3:28pm
I'm placing no pressure on SP at all if you read my posts carefully. He may be a fantastic trader for all I know. But I have no way to verify.

Quoting billytt
{quote} Peter. Give SP a break. I do not see eye to eye with him on all matters trading but I do have a lot of respect for him.
If I start a thread taking on the role as trading "teacher", then yes, you should ask for verification first.

Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} does that also mean we should take no notice of anything you say, because you have not shown a verified account?
Of course, a verified teacher does not make a happy trader. Have I implied such?

However logic dictates that a verified teacher is better than an unverified one. A verified account also must fulfill selection criteria designed to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I have heard of many many people unhappy with teachings from people with "verified accounts" over much longer periods than 1 year.
I'm not actually trying to influence anyone. Rather just expressing a view contrary to the status quo. Everyone knows that a verified teacher is preferrable to an unverified one. No one wants to admit it though....... doing so effectively means the party is over.

Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Let people worship who they want and for whatever reason, the best lessons in trading come from within anyway, people will find their own path, some will never make it and a few will.
  • #3,887
  • Jan 19, 2014 3:33pm Jan 19, 2014 3:33pm
Sorry but he sounds genuine to me, so no reason for trolling here people, leave him be!!

Trade logic looks good to.


p.s. sorry for 3827, it's just the norm around these days!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #3,888
  • Jan 19, 2014 3:39pm Jan 19, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting PeterE
Everyone knows that a verified teacher is preferrable to an unverified one. {quote}
there is absolutely no proof for this.... remember the turtles... verified accounts.... how many succeeded?
tradewith60
  • #3,889
  • Jan 19, 2014 11:43pm Jan 19, 2014 11:43pm
Quoting PeterE
SP, 1 year is good, 1 month is not. And I agree, there is no obligation to prove yourself if you are not asking for money. However, my posts here are not implying you should do anything, rather they point out that it is not logical to worship any at the Factory without viewing a verified account first. Unfortunately it is the culture here at FF and at most forums. We have an overwhelming number of "heroes" and "teachers", 99.6% of them are unverified, leading so many astray. {quote}
I have an opinion on what your problems are and I think they are two fold Peter. Firstly, I think you are one of the spoon feeders or at least that's what your comments suggest. Had you read the whole thread, and I very much doubt you have taken the time, you would clearly see that SP has done nothing more than offered information to be VERIFIED by the reader. The reason I think you've come in here and commented the way you have is because you want everything verified for you to save you the time and effort it takes to verify this information for yourself. It takes a very long time so my suggestion is to stop insulting peoples intelligence, get off your arse and verify things for yourself.

Secondly, you have started 9 threads of your own and from what I see not one of them has gone past page 1. A little bit of the green eyed monster maybe?

As far as SP's methods are concerned, just go take a look at the 15 minute charts between Sydney open Friday and right now on GU, GJ, EU, AU, UC, EJ, UJ, and AUDNZD, there are opportunities everywhere but there again you haven't read the thread have you so you wouldn't know what the hell you're looking for!
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,890
  • Jan 20, 2014 12:20am Jan 20, 2014 12:20am
OMG, I thought 20 years of horse racing forums was bad enough and that traders may just have a few more brains, this place is bloody worse! No wonder 95% + fail!
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,891
  • Jan 20, 2014 1:41am Jan 20, 2014 1:41am
whats the point of all this bad feeling guys,I went through all this on a forum once it dosent do anyone any good and just puts your blood pressure through the roof,why not just try to learn from the learned and disregard the rest,you'll feel better for it ,good luck to all of you
  • #3,892
  • Edited 1:18pm Jan 20, 2014 11:16am | Edited 1:18pm
OK, so the naysayers want to see some proof.

Quoting hanover
Attached is an example of a trend-following EA (written by my programmer friend) that was tested over 6 years of high quality tick data and more than 800 trades on EURUSD, assuming a spread of 1.8 pips per trade. It uses a combo of directional bias and key price levels for its entries.....
The "key price levels" are among those generously shared by Seneca_pilot in this thread.

Sure, the post merely displays the results of a backtest; as with all testing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But it does demonstrate — to anybody with a reasonable knowledge of the nature of mechanical systems, and an open mind — that these levels could have formed one part of a very effective entry system, if it had been run on EURUSD over the last 6 years. Read the rest of the post: no indicators, no curve fitting, consistent 2% risk per trade. An average 56% p.a. return with maximal DD of only 20%, and a profit factor > 1.5 — not too shabby for a totally mechanical system.

Now it's true that I don't make my living from trading spot forex; but that doesn't alter the results of the backtest.

No offense to Seneca_pilot, but I'm not overly concerned whether he's profitable or not, or posts a Trade Explorer or not, because it makes no difference to my own financial situation. Like Flipper58 says, I've taken the information in this thread, gone to the trouble of performing some objective testing (with the help of my programmer friend ), and satisfied myself of its value.

Hence I'd like to publicly thank Seneca_pilot for generously sharing this information. If the naysayers want to believe that this amounts to hero worship, or are unconvinced by the evidence that I've provided, well, that's not my problem. Again, it doesn't make any difference to my financial situation, or — for that matter — to theirs.
  • #3,893
  • Jan 20, 2014 12:12pm Jan 20, 2014 12:12pm
Quoting hanover
OK, so the naysayers want to see some proof. {quote} The "key price levels" are among those generously shared by Seneca_pilot in this thread. Sure, the post merely displays the results of a backtest; as with all testing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But it does demonstrate — to anybody with a reasonable knowledge of the nature of mechanical systems, and an open mind — that these levels could have formed one part of a very effective entry system, if...
Nice work Hanover,

win rates nearly always come out around the 50% mark, I have found this with everything I try, if your win rate is much higher then you have such a backward RR that you will wipe out for sure sooner or later.
It does bring me back to my earlier point though that Seneca's problems (i'm not bashing him, i'm just reiterating what he admits himself) were mainly closing his winning trades too early and not achieving a higher average RR.
Going on from that I strongly believe now that if you have a win rate around the 50% mark you are still winning too many trades to have found the optimum exit point for the system, and trades are still being closed out too early...
Seneca should just start posting trades again if he wants the thread back on course, although i'm guessing he's had a gutfull already.... still that's FF, that's forums...
tradewith60
  • #3,894
  • Edited 2:07pm Jan 20, 2014 1:17pm | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Nice work Hanover, win rates nearly always come out around the 50% mark,......
As can be seen from the MT4 tester's stats, win rate is around 40% (fairly typical for trend following systems), and average RR ~ 2.23. The biggest RR trade across the 6 year test was ~ 22:1.

While our research concurs with your comments that 'lower win rate/ higher RR' systems perform better, we also discovered that a good entry method can improve performance significantly. For example, using the identical exit method on random entries resulted in a profit factor of 1.05, compared with the EA's 1.51

With the three EAs tested here, the best performed is the one that enters on retracements to key levels (not Seneca's, but ones that we discovered ourselves), followed by one that uses a quirk in price movement at a certain time of the day, and with third place going to the one that uses an unconventional breakout method. All three use the same, 'trend following' type of exit.
  • #3,895
  • Jan 20, 2014 1:46pm Jan 20, 2014 1:46pm
that's funny David ,........a backtest is proof

Quoting hanover
OK, so the naysayers want to see some proof.

The "key price levels" are among those generously shared by Seneca_pilot in this thread.

Sure, the post merely displays the results of a backtest
  • #3,896
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:32pm Jan 20, 2014 8:32pm
Quoting PeterE
that's funny David ,........a backtest is proof {quote}
Depends largely on the objectives of the testing, how true-to-life the test conditions are, and the nature and extent of any curve fitting.
  • #3,897
  • Jan 20, 2014 9:31pm Jan 20, 2014 9:31pm
Quoting hanover
Hence I'd like to publicly thank Seneca_pilot for generously sharing this information.
I'll second that one! There are some very experienced, talented and giving people on this forum and I sincerely hope they continue to give back despite the irrelevant noise and idiocy. It sure seems to be a very thankless job. I read on another thread Hanover that you may well be quitting this forum and Forex shortly, I hope you don't. I have no personal interest in EA's but from my readings here it's obvious the amount of time spent and help you've given to a great many people over the years, I hope they appreciate it.

I'm sure my comments will be seen as hero worship by some so I might as well give you one of these , actually a few

EDIT: I could be very interested in EA's if you can put the Holy Grail in my inbox
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,898
  • Jan 20, 2014 9:46pm Jan 20, 2014 9:46pm
Quoting anyone
{quote} I'm curious, after 195 pages, wouldn't there be a follower that is willing to show his TradeExplorer on how the levels taught in this thread work in actual trading? No one??
To serve what purpose?
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,899
  • Jan 20, 2014 10:25pm Jan 20, 2014 10:25pm
Quoting anyone
{quote} You just like to bicker.
I asked you a simple question. To serve what purpose?
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,900
  • Jan 20, 2014 10:44pm Jan 20, 2014 10:44pm
Quoting anyone
{quote} I'm curious, after 195 pages, wouldn't there be a follower that is willing to show his TradeExplorer on how the levels taught in this thread work in actual trading? No one??
Now we finally come to your real problem. You think someone owes you something.

This thread is not in the systems forum. I didn't provide a complete strategy here. I did provide a framework from which motivated traders could build a strategy. I even linked important research papers and books that would help others to understand the structure of the market. To learn to trade is extremely hard work and is full of pitfalls and traps. The purpose of this thread is to help navigate that landscape. Money, success, and personal pride come only from work.

Now, having said that, here is a Wild idea. Read those papers. Do some of that work. Open a small test account and test some of the ideas that spring from your efforts. Please spend some of your valuable time learning. Then you will understand why we resent you insisting that we spend our valuable time proving something to you that you can prove to yourself.
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