Sultans of Swing

I see... and non-traders are saints?

saints with angelic voices, working selflessly for the PEOPLE

...

Nice, what was your risk?

On this one I am only looking not to lose atm, then I will see....

i kept it pretty tight, i think on entry it was around 50 pips or so... dont remember exactly, but I generally shoot for an R/R factor of 2+

Ahhh Mr. Berluscami
Who's the other angel?

dunno, but he sure is pretty enough to be angelic!

reminds me of an article I once saw in Elliott Wave International's "Financial Forecast" (aka "the world is constantly on the verge of ending"). The article was entitled: "The Psychological strain of being Bearish in a Long-term Bull market"

The authors advised readers to refrain from "flipping sentiment" and to "keep faith in our Bearish analysis". Well, until their money runs out and subscription is no longer affordable.

Good one LOL
You wouldn't happen to have a link to that article, would you?

PT, good response!

Jokes aside, I'll have a look if i can find the (subscription only $129/mth!) pdf if you do want it.

After they again predicted a catastrophic crash and the Dow made yet another record high a few days later - i felt like printing it out and ripping it into tiny shreds.

dude, why waste your money on such things... there is no value...

...true value is access for just 2 pips a week for a single instrument...



... switch your brain off and go into auto pilot mode... yea the markets are just that easy!

Euro Ozzie

Tempting

Daily

If it's a "subscription Only" publication, better not post it here. I'll PM you.

Swissy

CT Setup

H4

EJ Swing
Follow Up
link to original post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post6996171

Entry Refinement

H4


this pair is not for the weak of heart!

OK, I post a Gold chart because I think the current PA is critical. I see Gold as swinging in a triangle that keeps changing in unexpected twists and turns but the outside extremities are defined with the solid TLs. As strange as the downside action looks, I think it may be complete.

In a nutshell: Ranging in a South-East direction which either means all downside hell is going to break loose soon OR this is a correction prior to a higher wave degree uptrend.

Regarding details (and I may change this view later) Gold seems to be breaking some EW rules, but at least it's making the same "transgression" consistently (more on that just now). The major wave theme is ABC, with A and B as roughly equal sized 3w structures and then a long C wave spike (see the purple rectangles for examples). This is evident at all timeframes. Wherever you see a distinct long candle - that's a C wave and it will be both preluded as well as followed by an A-B combo before the next C wave. There is also a minor theme whereby a triangle composed of ABCs shows up - normally unfolding in an East by NE direction (2 O'clock). Absolutely everything is happening in three wave structures. Now and then an impulse is evident and then only as a C wave at M5 or M1 TF. This brings me to the irregularity:

Waves unfold like this: A (comprised of a-b-c), B(comprised of a-b-c and roughly equal in size and duration as A), then C which is rarely the expected impulse 1-2-3-4-5 but instead: a-b and then a diagonal 1-2-3-4-5. In other words: a-b-1(comprised of a-b-c)-2(a-b-c),3(a-b-c), etc... Very very interesting since that initial a-b of C is completely unorthodox. Perhaps I am miscounting or misapprehending, but this is what I see. At least it shows up consistently.

More upside seems likely once the current wave (up from Tuesday's low) is retraced 50-62%. Whatever PA does at 1337/8 (blue dot on chart) will reveal a lot: a break implies uptrend to me. A rejection: ongoing triangle ABCs or dowside dropology! Some mixed diversion divergence and reverse diversion divergence signals leave me none the wiser, but today's action visually resembles yesterday's M15 PA (starting at 1291) so I am taking cues from there: after a zigzaggy B wave between 1307 and 1315 there should be a thrust upwards toward 1337 where PA should consolidate and show the way.

The only solid signal i see is in the Stochastic RSI (2nd last indicator) where massive reverse diversion divergence of todays correction in relation to yesterdays low signals strong upside

(edit: diversion divergence - huh? whats wrong with me today?)

H1

http://ubuntuone.com/50hWAe0nCEvV1drcSfhGEJ

just to clarify: I say in my previous post that yesterday's wave up should be retraced 50%-62% and then later i say PA should consolidate in a B wave around 1312 before thrusting to 1337. I think the latter is more likely and deeper retracement will be abandoned in favour of consolidation around the 1312 S/R level

uh-oh, this Gold wave pointing down looks dangerous. It may stop around 1300 and then head up, but take care...

who knows what's going on with Gold... PA is all rickety and shaky, retracing itself 3 and 4 times over, creeping up inch by painful inch. Perhaps there's a worn-out network cable connecting the outside world with the CME price feed...

Don't think it's going to make target of 1337 today, coz at this rate it's stretching every available indicator to the max just to reach 1319 which is proving tough resistance.

I guess another slow decline will follow whatever upside target is struck today...

Gold: Count Update

Gold PA did turn just above 1300 as anticipated but only got halfway to target at 1337. I've updated my wave count as well as the TLs defining the current wave down from the Aug high. The updated count does not change much but it is cleaner and simpler - which is always a good sign.

The TLs are the main change, as they bound the triangle in a more meaningful way. Indicator and oscillator divergence also fit with expectations - because by the time PA reaches 1337, 1355 or 1375 (the obvious attractors) the divergence will be so blatant that every kid with a smartphone and RSI(14) will get signalled to go short. Reversal at 1337, 1355 or 1375 will confirm wave D and then the next target will be around 1275 - another longterm support level as well as Fib confluence zone.

It almost seems too easy... but this sure beats more complex expectations of PA which require analytic contortion and diminishing confidence. IF Gold has a trick up its sleeve I believe it may be in the form of reversal before target - thereby fooling the majority. By the time PA reaches the end of wave D most traders will have cottoned on to this triangle and it is then that the market will start its trickery.
I imagine the Gold bears will think a new downtrend is underway and this may lead to wave E overshooting target significantly before reversing. Also, the internal structure of wave E is unlikely to be simple given the straightforward ABCs we've had in this triangle up to now.


Note that the upper TL is drawn from the end of subwave 2 of wave A which is hardly an accurate forecast for the target for wave D! Instead PA may head for 1355 or even 1375 just to excite the Bulls prematurely. Fact is that ABC has printed since the August high, so objectively, a rally could start from here, but indicator divergence argues against that, as well as the internal structure of wave C which was 3w - thereby hinting that the correction is not over yet.

H1:

http://ubuntuone.com/0mNvbSUlzBWiz4AKhY2dIb