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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #7,601
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:16am Sep 11, 2013 11:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} what's that price? around 8125?

8124-8136 (161.8 and 50 respectively)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,602
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:19am Sep 11, 2013 11:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I've been maintaining that Kiwi's upside limit is between 8060 and 8090 (approx). That's why I closed my long at 8060 (right to the pip too). Now it's a matter for the RBNZ to decide if they want to prove me wrong.
not seeing any significant RBNZ announcements this week... am i missing something?

or could it be related to Ozzie unemployment data overnight?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,603
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:19am Sep 11, 2013 11:19am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} probability for reversal, or probability for price to hit the level?
Both of them, it indicates any probability at any given moment. Its not about the absolute value of the Y-Axis but the peaks pointing at any level at any time.
You can see it as an orderbook. Watching it overtime gives me a hint/edge about where support and demand statistically overhang within 1tick and 1 hour.
It changes as the market changes and its the opposite of a drawn S/R line. It shows S/R in realtime as it appears and dissappers.

I got some really nice trades in G/J today.
  • #7,604
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:20am Sep 11, 2013 11:20am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} 8124-8136 (161.8 and 50 respectively)
It's got a lot of supply to munch through to get there, but like I said; RBNZ monetary policy decision tonight. Translation: All that supply could disappear in a flash and drive the Kiwi up to 8200
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,605
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:22am Sep 11, 2013 11:22am
There was a question regarding my money management, when I take several positions in different pairs, like short EU and GU at the same time.

I think the posting has been deleted, can not find it anymore.


Anyway, here is the answer.


to avoid "caking", I do use several accounts:


a) 2 short-term accounts (reason: when I have my max. leverage in one account, I can use opportunities in the second account)



b) long term account


c) Gold account (tax purpose mainly, to separate Gold from currencies)


The recent GU trades are all in the long term account. The recent EU trades are in the short term account
  • #7,606
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:22am Sep 11, 2013 11:22am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} not seeing any significant RBNZ announcements this week... am i missing something? or could it be related to Ozzie unemployment data overnight?

speaking of this,
i was chatting w a buddy @ platts

Chinese iron ore imports are on the rise again, platts estimates 61fe to be up 30% by year end

was reading an initiation report on a small cap chinese iron ore miner, their DCA pricing is @$141 (62fe)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,607
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:23am Sep 11, 2013 11:23am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} not seeing any significant RBNZ announcements this week... am i missing something? or could it be related to Ozzie unemployment data overnight?
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,608
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:24am Sep 11, 2013 11:24am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Both of them, it indicates any probability at any given moment. Its not about the absolute value of the Y-Axis but the peaks pointing at any level at any time. You can see it as an orderbook. Watching it overtime gives me a hint/edge about where support and demand statistically overhang within 1tick and 1 hour. It changes as the market changes and its the opposite of a drawn S/R line. It shows S/R in realtime as it appears and dissappers. I got some really nice trades in G/J today.

thanks for explanation


the curves represent one month of data as in the past?
  • #7,609
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:25am Sep 11, 2013 11:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {image}

Doh!

sorry, im running into my 13th hour on the clock!
tend to have foot-in-mouth-disease at this time...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,610
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:28am Sep 11, 2013 11:28am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Doh! sorry, im running into my 13th hour on the clock! tend to have foot-in-mouth-disease at this time...
No worries. I empathize

Here's a link to a medium quality (128kbps) live webcast of the press conference.
http://www.r2.co.nz/20130912/rbnz-128.htm

RBNZPRESS
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,611
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:31am Sep 11, 2013 11:31am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} thanks for explanation the curves represent one month of data as in the past?
Past Week data as reference and the current data as correction which is part of the algo short said.
  • #7,612
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:42am Sep 11, 2013 11:42am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It's got a lot of supply to munch through to get there, but like I said; RBNZ monetary policy decision tonight. Translation: All that supply could disappear in a flash and drive the Kiwi up to 8200
or,considering the buildup over the last couple of weeks, and the divergences in play, it could be a sell the news event...

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,613
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:44am Sep 11, 2013 11:44am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} or,considering the buildup over the last couple of weeks, and the divergences in play, it could be a sell the news event...

fwiw, i think i'll take my chips off the table on the NYSE close tonight

up 193 on kiwi and 167 on ozzie atm... not worth the event risk
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,614
  • Sep 11, 2013 11:51am Sep 11, 2013 11:51am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} fwiw, i think i'll take my chips off the table on the NYSE close tonight up 193 on kiwi and 167 on ozzie atm... not worth the event risk
From what I see, definitely not.
Smart move
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,615
  • Sep 11, 2013 12:08pm Sep 11, 2013 12:08pm
EUR USD 2 hour
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  • #7,616
  • Sep 11, 2013 12:49pm Sep 11, 2013 12:49pm
Hope you all had a profitable day

Good fight
Good night
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,617
  • Sep 11, 2013 12:56pm Sep 11, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting milam
{quote} So, let me understand, you went short (long term) @5801. SL? 1.59? Targets 1.5648 and 1.0000? Thank you.

sorry for late answering - just saw your question:


no, 1.st target around 1.48x, second around 1.00


since long time position, a SL @ 1.59 would be too narrow. For me, the risk is towards 1.59 (that the price can more or less reach it easily)


1,6113 would get my attention, but a SL if any should be behind 6357 (all Murrey Math targets).

A break of 6113 would certainly lead to temporarily "pseudo-hedging" my position


behind 6281 would be a good SL, since that is the area, where the downsloping trendline, which connects all the tops of the triangle on weekly chart, comes in
  • #7,618
  • Sep 11, 2013 12:57pm Sep 11, 2013 12:57pm
Quoting godim
{quote} I think not yet reached the goal. I always expect a little penetration. {image}
haha, you got what you hoped for
  • #7,619
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:10pm Sep 11, 2013 1:10pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} LOL thought that you all knew my abbreviation already, since I used it a lot (and nobody asked) I use market profiles with a rolling period. Since I also use Murrey Math, where I use a lookback period of 32, I synchronized my market profiles by even so using a lookback period of 32. So I called my market profiles "Murrey math Synchronized Market Profiles" or simply MMSMP


I am just wondering if too many interpretation would make it more difficult, anyway maybe we can chat another time about it.

By the way Good Morning.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,620
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:11pm Sep 11, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting Ambar
{quote} Same short like you on GBP/USD, we'll see. One question. If you put small positions in diferent pairs (like 1/10, 2/10). At the same time...żdo you feel better when you separate lots in pair? żdo you fell that you diversify risk doing this???

Ha, found the posting I searched for:


well, here is my MM:

About my (Infinitus) Money Management and Position Size


a) for every 100000 USD in account your max. position size is 10 Lot (max. allowance); it is called a 10/10 or full position

b) the max. position can be split in parts (1/10 positions)

c) best position size is 5 Lot per 100000 USD in account risk/reward/time wise; it is called a 5/10 or half position

d) for lower risk trade with 2-3 Lot per 100000 USD in account


With this being said, it takes a 34 pips move with a 3/10 position to gain 1%. For a 2/10 position you need a 50 pips move to gain 1%.

From a risk/reward/time perspective, a 3/10 to 5/10 position seems to be best for intraday-trading on M5 to M15 TF.

For long term positions I mainly take up to 3/10 position



Another advantage in splitting the entries in 1/10 positions is, that you are able to scale into positions comfortably
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