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  • #834,341
  • Sep 11, 2013 9:28am Sep 11, 2013 9:28am
Quoting MaxDoom
as long as the price stays below 1.3375 I have valid targets in the yellow bubbles I am currently short from current levels {image}
congratulations, you are out of my wacko & psycho list
  • #834,342
  • Edited 9:57am Sep 11, 2013 9:34am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if the bulls do 3275. 3314 is there if they can get over 3298, its normal to go to 3251 before, after the b/o @ 3275.. 3191 is another often visited
the 4 h closes in 30 m.. unless it makes a i hammer or something. 3332/33 waits st.. since the other target was hit.. we may visit 3251/52 once more.. it dont have to go back, but we dont have a valid cross. those are usually rejected.
edit 3254/55
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #834,343
  • Sep 11, 2013 9:38am Sep 11, 2013 9:38am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} decision time.

got the s/o with 1/2 a pip
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #834,344
  • Sep 11, 2013 9:46am Sep 11, 2013 9:46am
Quoting ziyaze
{quote} Read the books "Mastery" and "50th Law" by Robert Greene. They aren't directly about trading, but the principles explained can directly be applied to trading.
I'll have a look at them, thanks.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #834,345
  • Sep 11, 2013 9:53am Sep 11, 2013 9:53am
with the cross invalid, we usually go to -3257.. in 8 m the 4 hr closes. in 4h 8 min the day (8) closes. either one at -3257 is a i hammer.. 4h unlikely atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #834,346
  • Sep 11, 2013 9:56am Sep 11, 2013 9:56am
Quoting suthmo
This is frustrating. I've got a feeling I might know what's happening, but it's a very big maybe. 1hr 45min buy 50/52 Buy 5 hr r at 275 sell to to55 buy 9hrs tp 293 Sell
I am really curious about your timing, the 1hr 45 min "buy spike" is all i need to confirm the up movement. How you do it? I figure out the price level line, and imho, we do not get to see 1.3350 end of day, but i can not see the triggering time. As i understand, correct me if i am wrong, the market consists of "time" and "price". If i can figure out both, i have an edge.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #834,347
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:03am Sep 11, 2013 10:03am
Quoting tanim
{quote} Are the big guys are shorting $ so that they can buy it cheap on friday?prior to taper decition.
I don't know. I don't really pay much attention to what the big guys supposedly are or aren't doing. I let the charts tell the story.

But if I were in a big guy's shoes, I'd be fading bullish right now, trying to lure small guys into longs, so I could then smash the price down when the announcement is made.
  • #834,348
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:04am Sep 11, 2013 10:04am
laughing time...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.. put sl at BE.. go to sleep now.. see you guys during asian time..
  • #834,349
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:06am Sep 11, 2013 10:06am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} I am really curious about your timing, the 1hr 45 min "buy spike" is all i need to confirm the up movement. How you do it? I figure out the price level line, and imho, we do not get to see 1.3350 end of day, but i can not see the triggering time. As i understand, correct me if i am wrong, the market consists of "time" and "price". If i can figure out both, i have an edge. {image}
as well as volume. we only know the retail volume unfortunately.
  • #834,350
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:10am Sep 11, 2013 10:10am
EUR USD watching to short @ 3334/7
  • #834,351
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:10am Sep 11, 2013 10:10am
back in 4h
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #834,352
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:29am Sep 11, 2013 10:29am
USD CAD watching 1.0319 to go long
  • #834,353
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:31am Sep 11, 2013 10:31am
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
eur new support around 13270/80 may be hard to break and with the push toward new high above 13300s wil likely see the beginning of the continuation of daily uptrend. I would expect this trend to continue for a while. There would be retracements and it would be like one step backward and 2 steps forward until the uptrend tapers off. Likely target level around 13390/13400 level. Will wait for the market to play it out..may or may not materialise
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #834,354
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:33am Sep 11, 2013 10:33am
Euraud stops are targeted above 1.4295/00 and in turn eurusd could hit soon aroundbouts 1.3330/35, likely near current hourly close.

Lets see if stops get triggered.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #834,355
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:33am Sep 11, 2013 10:33am
Risks rising in the S&P 500

Since the market topped in August within 3 points of the target I provided for you two weeks prior, I have been looking for the ideal setup which will take us below 1600. We may be very close at this time.
As we came into 2013, and as everyone was focusing on shorting the market for the entire first quarter, I was continually stressing that we are going higher. As many of you may recall, in November of 2012 when I said we were going up to at least the 1575 region, many thought I was smoking something illegal.
But in 2012, not even I thought that we would exceed 1647, as that was the high end of my target region. But the closer we got to that target, the more evident it became that we would exceed it. It was not until we called the May top that I reasonably expected at least a 100-point decline in a "June Swoon." And that "June Swoon" saw a 120-plus-point decline.
And if you bought the levels I cited in June as support for the July rally I expected, you had another 100-point trade, even if you sold at the 1660 lower target I had. So, if you followed my analysis in June and July, you may not have garnered every point the market had to offer, but you would have made 200-plus points within this trading region.
And, if you shorted the 1700 region target I provided in August, and assuming you still have not yet taken profits, you would be adding another 50 points for a total 250+ points of profit within this region since the May top.
So, the question now is if the market will actually drop below 1600 as I have been expecting under my ideal correction scenario. Well, some people, like many commenters on MarketWatch, look for an absolute yes or no. But since markets are non-linear, there is nothing that is absolutely certain, so all we can work with is probabilities. And this pattern setup usually plays out over 70% of the time. So, it is a high-probability trade. But, as always, I can be wrong, which is why we attempt to set up our trades in as low-risk a manner as we possibly can.
On Wednesday, before I left for the Rosh Hashanah holiday, I provided you with an ideal topping target of 1662 for an a-wave, which we hit on Friday in the pre-market. From that level, I expected a b-wave retracement, followed by a c-wave rally which would complete a corrective pattern off the lows.
However, it seems that both the b-wave, and possibly even the c-wave completed on Friday. And it also seems that, with Garrett at the helm on Friday, many of you were able to nail the exact tops and bottoms to the penny, thanks to Garrett's exceptional real-time analysis and guidance in our trading room.
But what prevents me from decisively declaring this upside corrective action complete is that we have only rallied to the point where the c-wave was equal to .618 the size of the a-wave. This is not a very common relationship within a corrective rally, and leaves the door open to a much more complicated corrective upside pattern to play out. This still leaves open the potential to target the next higher Fibonacci retracement level at 1674ES, with 1686ES just beyond that. In fact, 1686ES has more confluence at this time than does 1674ES.
Yet, even though it is not a common relationship, it does overlap nicely with the .500 retrace of the entire decline from the August high, and maintains the pricing structure below the 50-day moving average, which clearly makes this region of confluence a point of strong resistance indeed. So, if the market were to break down below the 1630ES region in an impulsive pattern, then I would be moving into the camp that this corrective rally has completed, and we will likely be visiting the 1600 region quite soon, with a minimum preferred target of 1582.
But, note, if the market were to have created a local top at the double top made at 1664ES, I would more likely classify it as a wave iv, as we have been showing as a possibility on the daily chart for the last two weeks, which would also align better with the Select Sector SPDR-Financial and the Dow . While I have been trying to abandon this potential, the market continually revives this possibility.
My ideal target would still be the 1580 region in such a scenario, as that is the a=c point in the larger yellow 4th wave. Furthermore, by the time we reach that level over the next week or two in a wave v (if that is what is playing out), then we would likely be supported by the 200-day moving average, which will likely be in that region at that time.
Therefore, as long as we remain below 1664ES, I will be looking down toward 1582 as the potential bottom for this yellow 4th wave. However, if we are to break out over 1664ES, then based upon the pattern setup, which takes us through 1664ES, we will be focusing on either 1674ES or 1686ES.
So, at this time, I am going to reiterate that the region between 1664-1686ES represents significant risk to all market participants, as it is a region from which the market can take us below 1600. Whether you believe my analysis or not, a large decline can truly initiate from that region, whereas a break out above that region will have me neutral until 1705ES, while a break over that level will have me targeting the 1760-1780 region. But there is serious danger in between 1664-1686ES, within which many market participants may simply want to wait on the sidelines until the market resolves itself within this region.
  • #834,356
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:34am Sep 11, 2013 10:34am
CHF/JPY refusing to fall.
  • #834,357
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:38am Sep 11, 2013 10:38am
Quoting USD-Bear
hehe, now staying in EU M15: {image}
collected 55 @ 1,3323
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #834,358
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:39am Sep 11, 2013 10:39am
Quoting Schickeria
USD CAD watching 1.0319 to go long
1.0275 here
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #834,359
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:43am Sep 11, 2013 10:43am
Quoting aSTRONAUT
{quote} 2 early, short at 1331x level ..thats the daily 61.8 fib retrace
depends, what's your tp?
  • #834,360
  • Sep 11, 2013 10:50am Sep 11, 2013 10:50am
Quoting hadox
{quote} the weekly got rejected at 1633 - broke through 1664 (for now) , next key levels at 1686/1688 and then 1708ish...
testing atm..
Patience is a virtue...
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